Convergent Validity of Revealed and Stated Recreation Behavior with Quality Change: A Comparison of Multiple and Single Site Demands

We consider the convergent validity of several demand models using beach recreation data. Two models employ multiple site data: a count data demand system model and the Kuhn–Tucker demand system model. We explore the role of existing variation in beach width in explaining trip choices, and analyze a hypothetical 100 foot increase in beach width. We compare these models to a single equation model where we jointly estimate revealed and stated preference trip data, and focus on a hypothetical scenario considering a 100 foot increase in beach width. In each case we develop estimates of the change in beach visits and the welfare impacts from the increase in width. The trip change estimates from two of the three models are similar and convergent valid, though the willingness to pay estimates differ in magnitude.     

Beyond the Stern Review: Lessons from a risky venture at the limits of the cost-benefit analysis

This paper argues that debates amongst economists triggered by the Stern Review are partly relevant, focusing on key parameters translating real ethical issues, and partly misplaced in that they do not consider enough other determinants of climate change damages: i) the specifications of the utility function used for the assessments (preference for the environment, preference for smooth growth paths), ii) the interplay between uncertainty and the sequentiality of the decision, and iii) whether the growth engines behind the integrated assessment models can account for transient disequilibrium and sub-optimality. We derive some suggestions for any future research agenda in integrated assessment modelling, whatever the position of the analysts about the relevance of the intertemporal optimisation framework and the Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the climate affair.     

Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change

It has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences, through the accelerated replacement of capital. This possibility is referred to as the productivity effect. This effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change. In this framework, disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate, in the same way than the saving ratio in a Solow-like model. Depending on reconstruction quality, indeed, accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs, but is never able to turn disasters into positive events. Moreover, a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short-term consequences of disasters, but pays off over the long-term. Regardless, the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity, potentially leading to poverty traps.     

Dynamic equilibrium and the real exchange rate in a spatially separated world

Two homogeneous stocks of physical capital are located in twodifferent countries, separated by an 'ocean.' They are consumedby local residents, invested in a random production processyielding real returns, or transferred abroad. Under proportionaltransfer costs, trade, consumption and capital imbalances areshown to be persistent. The heteroskedastic process for therelative price of capital in the two countries has a nonlinear,mean-reverting drift. Nevertheless, the conditional probabilityof the price moving from the parity value of unity is greaterthan the probability of it moving toward parity. The real interest-ratedifferential incorporates a simple risk premium.