On a family of data-based transformed models useful in forecasting technological substitutions

This paper examines, via real data, some well known models for technology substitution analysis. We propose a family of data-based transformed models that will include the models under examination as special cases. The basic thrust of the paper is the recognition that for technology substitution analysis, the observations are time series data and hence are not independent. Also, the functional form of the model should be determined by both theoretical considerations as well as the data on hand. This suggests that the traditional ordinary least squares procedure used in estimating the parameters and the resulting forecasting procedures are not adequate. The existing models examined here are Fisher–Pry, Gompertz, Weibull, and Normal. We stress the statistical aspects of the models and their relative merits in terms of predictive power. The criteria used for the purpose of comparison are the mean squared deviation and the mean absolute deviation of the predicted values compared with the actual observations.     

Testing for the Presence of Moral Hazard Using the Regulatory Reform in the Car Insurance Market: Case of Korea

The aim of this paper is to investigate the presence of the moral hazard phenomenon in the Korean car insurance market. In the context of natural experiment, I examine whether the regulatory reform introduced in 2000 generates significant difference in accident probability between before and after the reform. Further, I analyse the different effects of regulatory reform on different parts of the outcome distribution. In any case, I do not find the significant effects of regulatory reform on accident probability.     

Plea bargaining: on the selection of jury trials

We consider a model of the criminal court process, focusing on plea bargaining. A plea bargain provides unequal incentives to go to trial because innocent defendants are more willing to plead not guilty. We show that the court process implements the preferences of the person or group who is most concerned about wrongful conviction. If a prosecutor is more concerned about wrongful conviction than the jury, the prosecutor can shape the defendant pool at trial so that jurors act according to prosecutor’s preferences against judicial mistakes. Our model also connects insights from strategic jury models that usually omit plea bargaining with the actual criminal court process where most cases are resolved through plea bargaining. As an example, we show that the inferiority of the unanimity rule established in Feddersen and Pesendorfer (Am Polit Sci Rev 92(1):23–35, 1998) persists in spite of the addition of plea bargaining.     

Explorations - Introduction: Towards Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Perspectives in Economics: Why and How They May Make a Difference

The economics profession has only recently begun to include research on lesbians and gay men, but we argue that a lesbian economics has long existed, with documentation of anti-lesbian discrimination, discussion of its private and social costs, and practical work for change. This tradition, along with the newer traditions built upon work with gay men and bisexual people, provides a basis for feminists to expand work in economics on lesbian and gay issues. The articles in the symposium propose ideas for future research, for learning from other disciplines, and for creating a more welcoming academic climate.     

Sophisticated but confused: The impact of brand extension and motivation on source confusion

Legal and consumer psychology scholars have focused recent attention on source confusion, which is the likelihood that consumers will be confused regarding the company that is a product's source or sponsor. The authors evaluate two potential antecedents of source confusion: (1) consumer motivation and (2) a brand extension that has been undertaken by a competitor. There have been disagreements in the courts, the scholarly legal literature, and the consumer psychology literature concerning the nature and extent of the impact of these two variables on the likelihood of consumer confusion. Based on schema theory, the authors hypothesize that consumer motivation and brand extension will influence the likelihood of source confusion. An interaction between the two variables is proposed, with consumer motivation having an effect that is opposite to the effect typically identified in the literature and case law. The results of a controlled laboratory experiment support the theoretical predictions. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The effect of consumer emotional disclosure on fairness perceptions

One way consumers cope with an unfair consumption experience is to express how they felt about it. Understandably, these disclosures are often rich with emotion. Does emotional disclosure in this context influence consumers' perceptions of fairness? Drawing hypotheses from the emotional disclosure literature, this research reveals that writing about emotions improves consumer fairness perceptions and satisfaction. However, the benefit of emotional disclosure disappears if the disclosure is solicited by the company perceived to be responsible for the unfairness and they do not offer redress. The findings lead to the recommendation that companies provide and facilitate opportunities for consumers to disclose to third parties the emotions arising from consumption experiences perceived as unfair. Implications for managing customer feedback, complaints, and negative word‐of‐mouth are discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.