Risk factors in Australian bond returns

This study examines the risk factors in Australian bond returns. The study quantifies bond liquidity and estimates a liquidity risk factor in the Australian setting. We develop a three‐factor asset pricing framework that uses term, default and liquidity risk factors to explain the variation of Australian bond returns. Our findings corroborate the US evidence on the pervasiveness of these risk factors faced by bond investors. The three‐factor model developed in this study has practical applications when calculating the cost of debt, evaluating the performance of an active bond fund manager and hedging underlying risk in a bond portfolio.     

Economic integration and stock market dynamic linkages: evidence in the context of Australia and Asia

Countries are becoming economically integrated and it is contended that this will also lead to their financial markets becoming integrated. This contention is important since international financial market integration diminishes portfolio diversification benefits and creates contagion risk. We test this contention in this article in the context of the Australasian region. Australia and Asia have experienced very significant economic integration through a rapid growth in their bilateral trade. We utilize a battery of econometric techniques – cointegration, asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlations and panel regression models. As expected, we find that trade intensity significantly drives the interdependence between their stock markets in both the short run and the long run. Thus, given the ever increasing economic integration in this region, this finding implies that their stock markets face the risk of contagion, and that investors in these markets would also be confronted with the prospect of lower diversification benefits.     

Transfers in Spanish State Retirement Pensions

A central issue in the recent reforms of state pensions in Spain has been to increase the proportionality between contributions and benefits along actuarially fair lines. The aim of this paper is to quantify the transfer component of social security retirement pensions, with transfer being understood as the difference between the pension effectively received and that which would be received under a system of actuarial fairness. The analysis is placed within a life-cycle framework, with particular reference to the distributive effects by income level. The results show that, in the past, there was a marked bias in favour of the objective of intergenerational and intragenerational redistribution, to the detriment of the objective of income insurance. This paper examines the factors that determine the final value of the transfer component within the entire Spanish pensions system.     

Bonds versus stocks: Investors’ age and risk taking

It has become increasingly popular to advise investors to relocate their funds from a primarily stock portfolio to a primarily bond portfolio as they get older. However, the well-known decision rules such as mean–variance or stochastic dominance rules are unable to explain this common practice. Almost stochastic dominance (ASD) and almost mean–variance (AMV) approaches are used to examine the dominance of stock and bond portfolios. ASD and AMV rules unambiguously support the popular practice of advising higher stock to bond ratio for long investment horizons. Hence, we provide an explanation to the practitioners’ recommendation within the expected utility paradigm.     

Decision-making under uncertainty – A field study of cumulative prospect theory

The presented research tests cumulative prospect theory (CPT, [Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47, 263–291; Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., 1981. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211, 453–480]) in the financial market, using US stock option data. Option prices possess information about actual investors’ preferences in such a way that an exploitation of conventional option analysis, along with theoretical relationships, makes it possible to elicit investor preferences. The option data in this study serve for estimating the two essential elements of the CPT, namely, the value function and the probability weighting function. The main part of the work focuses on the functions’ simultaneous estimation under CPT original parametric specification. The shape of the estimated functions is found to be in line with theory. Comparing to results of laboratory experiments, the estimated functions are closer to linearity and loss aversion is less pronounced.     

Larry Moss and the Struggle Against Racism by the Whately Professors of Political Economy

In this note, we highlight an important consideration of Larry Moss's life's work, the continual struggle within economics against racism. Larry initiated and supported the symposium on eugenics published by the American Journal of Economics and Sociology in July 2005. He edited the volume Social Inequality, Analytical Egalitarianism and the March Toward Eugenic Explanations in the Social Sciences in August 2008. These constitute obvious signs of Larry's concern.
He conjectured that the Trinity College Dublin political economists who held the Whately professorship should be thought of as a school. Such a school was in fact identified in 1850 by an outsider who pointed to their shared opposition to racial explanations within an institutional setting. That shared opposition allowed them to speak against the narrow interests of the rulers of the country. Of course, other political economists of the time, Mill in particular, were also emphatic in their anti-racism. Thus, not only do we need to take up Larry's challenge to describe the Trinity College school but we must also seek its connections with the Scottish-English group of anti-racists.     

A Proposed Model for Consumer-Based Brand Equity Analysis on Social Media Using Data Mining and Social Network Analysis

Online social networks have expanded their “virtual borders,” making the Internet more like an environment of social interaction than a business tool. However, even before the emergence and expansion of social media, marketing professionals were interested in identifying consumers' perceptions about brands. Thus, operational models have been proposed to facilitate such a task. Those models, however, can be expensive and inconvenient, since the models use questionnaires for data collection. To help overcome this problem, this article proposes a model for brand equity analysis from the consumer perspective expressed in social networks using opinion mining techniques and social network analysis. The application of the proposed model on data collected from Twitter made it possible to analyze five brand equity dimensions: brand awareness, brand loyalty, perceived sentiment, perceived quality, and brand associations. The results reached by the application of the model show that brand equity can be analyzed from data retrieved from virtual social networks, disclosing how consumers perceive brands in such an environment, without using questionnaires, enabling different brands in different contexts. Those data can be analyzed under both objective and replicable criteria for each of the brand equity elements that make up the model.     

Cointegration networks in stock markets

We use a novel approach based on a combination of network and cointegration analysis to examine linkages between stock markets across market cycles. Our results show that long-run linkages are likely to be global rather than regional and that market turbulence increases linkages. However, we find no widespread common stochastic trends between markets and neither are we able to draw a conclusion that major financial markets display influences network linkages.     

How pervasive is the effect of culture on stock market linkages? Evidence across regions and economic cycles

We conduct a comprehensive study on the effect of culture on stock market linkages. With data on 25 national stock markets, a quantile regression model is used to estimate the determinants of market linkages using culture variable/s such as language, religion and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions while controlling for distance, economic and legal variables. Further, we test whether these effects hold across regions and if changes are detected during periods of market crisis. We also test if market liquidity, an indicator of market efficiency, diminishes the impact of culture on market linkages. The main conclusion is that culture preferences shape investor choices, which affects integration between stock markets. The equity markets with similar cultural traits tend to increase market linkages; however, we observe differences across regions. Furthermore, liquidity and economic uncertainty fail to have an impact on the significance of culture variable/s as determinants of market linkages.     

Dynamics of volatility transmission between the U.S. and the Chinese agricultural futures markets

The U.S. and China are two of the biggest players in the world agricultural market. The literature documents that volatility in the U.S. agricultural futures market spills over significantly to that of China. This article provides further insights into the spillovers from China to the U.S. as well as the time horizon and dynamics of the bidirectional spillovers through the application of a multivariate extension of the heterogeneous autoregressive model, in relation to four commodities – soybean, wheat, corn and sugar. The results confirm the existence of significant spillovers from the U.S. to China for four commodities, which are primarily generated by the shorter-term volatility components in the U.S., and provide evidence for the increasing pricing power of the Chinese market. The findings are robust against various specifications and have important investment and policy implications.