Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.     

Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down

The literature on the convenience of currency hedging of international portfolio investments has not reached a final verdict. There are arguments for (Perold and Schulman [Perold, A.F. and Schulman, E.C. (1988). The free lunch in currency hedging: implications for investment policy and performance standards, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June Vol. 44, No. 3: 45-52]) and against (Froot [Froot, K. (1993). Currency hedging over long horizons. NBER Working Paper 4355.] and Campbell et al. [Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M. and White, J.S. (2003). Foreign currency for long-term investors. The Economic Journal, Volume 113, Number 486, (March), pp. C1-C25(1)]). This paper analyzes the perspective of global investors based in emerging markets, for which hedging should imply increasing expected returns. The question thus is whether currency hedging is a “free lunch” in this case. No free lunch exists, as it turns out. Hard currencies act as natural hedges against global (and local) portfolio losses, since they tend to appreciate with respect to emerging market currencies when the world portfolio return is negative. Therefore, in this case currency hedging increases volatility—although also increasing expected returns. This result is likely to hold generally for relatively open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes.     

Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging

In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, ‘diffuse’ priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected consequences. Here we focus on the practically relevant situation where we need to entertain a (large) number of sampling models and we have (or wish to use) little or no subjective prior information. We aim at providing an ‘automatic’ or ‘benchmark’ prior structure that can be used in such cases. We focus on the normal linear regression model with uncertainty in the choice of regressors. We propose a partly non-informative prior structure related to a natural conjugate g-prior specification, where the amount of subjective information requested from the user is limited to the choice of a single scalar hyperparameter g_0j. The consequences of different choices for g_0j are examined. We investigate theoretical properties, such as consistency of the implied Bayesian procedure. Links with classical information criteria are provided. More importantly, we examine the finite sample implications of several choices of g_0j in a simulation study. The use of the MC³ algorithm of Madigan and York (Int. Stat. Rev. 63 (1995) 215), combined with efficient coding in Fortran, makes it feasible to conduct large simulations. In addition to posterior criteria, we shall also compare the predictive performance of different priors. A classic example concerning the economics of crime will also be provided and contrasted with results in the literature. The main findings of the paper will lead us to propose a ‘benchmark’ prior specification in a linear regression context with model uncertainty.     

Integrated reporting and capital markets in an international setting: The role of financial analysts

This study investigates the interplay between integrated reporting (IR) and capital markets. In particular, building on voluntary disclosure and information processing theories, we hypothesize and empirically find that IR adoption improves analysts' ability to make accurate earnings forecasts. Whereas previous studies focus on the South African context, we rely on an international sample that also allows us to study the moderating effect of the corporate governance regime (shareholder or stakeholder oriented). The results suggest that IR improves analysts' ability to make accurate predictions to a larger extent in North America than in Europe, and we derive interesting insights on the much‐debated nature of IR. This study offers valuable insights to policy makers interested in improving disclosure practices in the financial market.     

Brazilian Consumer Preferences for Processed Tomato Packaging Using Conjoint Analysis

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of processed tomato products in Latin America. However, the consumption preferences related to this product are poorly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of certain characteristics of processed tomato product packaging on Brazilian consumer preferences. The revised Personal Involvement Inventory (PII) and conjoint analysis (CA) were applied to 206 consumers in Brazil. Four packaging attributes were evaluated: colour (green, red, and yellow); material (sachets, tin, and brick carton packaging); the presence of additional information; and the presence of “easy-open” devices. The CA technique showed that in general, the Brazilian participants were influenced positively by red brick carton and sachet packaging and by the presence of additional information and a device that facilitated opening the package. The results presented in this study are useful for the food industry to develop packaging and marketing strategies using consumer profiles.     

Dreams,fairy tales,animals, and cars

With growing interest in qualitative research beyond its popular use in focus groups, a greater appreciation of the potential of projective techniques is recommended. Examples are given to illustrate the variety of methods available, and how they may be practically applied in research projects to elicit rich information about perception of products and brands, and about characteristics of respondents.     

Private Pension Funds in Oligopolistic Financial Markets: Some qualifications to conventional theory of financial development

The paper inquires into the efficiency of financial development policies in economies where the financial sector is based on oligopolistic commercial banking. In this case, interest rates on deposits may be set below the level required to achieve balance of payments equilibrium, so that banks are able to exact a risk free financial margin in their holdings of government bonds. Under such circumstances, banks lack incentives to place indirect debt in domestic security markets, as a means of providing long-term finance; and private capital market deepening is hindered. Pension fund privatisation, in this institutional environment, does not relieve public finances, because the government must act as issuer of last resort in order to stabilise the currency. This point is illustrated with Mexican data, and some policy measures to deal with this situation in developing economies are proposed.     

An ethical argument for host country workforce training and development in the expatriate management assignment

This paper seeks to establish the ethical foundation of MNCs' responsibility for providing host country workforce (HCW) preparation and training attendant to the new expatriate management assignment. It argues that such moral responsibility arises from a set of correlative duties which MNCs acquire as business institutions. They include duties involving the expatriate manager, the HCW, and the host nation to (1) assist all employees, including the expatriate manager, in the successful execution of their assignments; (2) avoid the semblance of discriminatory treatment; (3) encourage full status integration into a global economy; (4) foster personal enlightenment and self-enrichment; (5) help individuals develop useful, marketable skills; (6) contribute to the development of a greater and more functional national labor skill base; and (7) encourage a long-term focus on creating enduring value for a maximum number of stakeholders, rather than upon short-term and shortsighted profit for only a few. Some important cautions and considerations related to HCW training implementation are then discussed.Charles M. Vance, associate professor of management at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, has both a domestic and international focus on human resource management and learning system design to enhance organizational performance. He has several publications, and his new book,Mastering Management Education (Sage Publications), is to be published in 1993.Eduardo S. Paderon is the Associate Dean of the Hagan School of Business of Iona College in New Rochelle, New York. He teaches graduate courses on Business Policy and Business and Society. His writings and other scholarly activities, including presentations at national and international conferences, focus on business ethics and cross-cultural value studies.