Assessing productivity changes in UK hospitals reflecting technology and input prices

In this study Malmquist productivity indexes are used to evaluate the performance of acute hospitals in the UK over the period after the introduction of the internal market in the National Health Service in 1991. The indexes are computed using nonparametric programming, known as Data Envelopment Analysis, and they are decomposed into multiple component measures to give insights into the trends in hospital performance. Overall it is found that productivity regressed in the year after the reforms but progressed thereafter so that overall there was a net progress both as far as the inputs and costs are concerned. Productivity progress is mainly due to overall efficiency progress, which in turn is mostly attributed to allocative efficiency improvements. Technical change resulted in a small reduction in the amount of inputs used but also at higher production costs, because of a worsening in the match between input mixes and relative input prices. However, it is suggested that the gains in productivity are not high enough to argue that the internal market has had a significant impact on productivity. Finally, it is argued that the methodologies employed here can be a valuable evaluative and managerial tool in the context of the new NHS reforms about to be introduced.     

Partnership,reciprocity and team design

This paper studies the effect of intention-based reciprocity preferences on the free-riding problem arising in partnerships. Our results suggest a tendency of efficient partnerships to consist of members whose sensitivity to reciprocity is – individually or jointly – sufficiently high. Sufficient conditions for the implementation of the efficient strategy profile require a reciprocity-based sharing rule so that each partner gets a fraction of the output, which is a percentage of his own sensitivity to reciprocity with respect to the overall sensitivity in the team. Finally, we introduce the concept of psychological strong Nash equilibrium and show that it allows for the unique and collusion-proof implementation of the efficient strategy profile.     

Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: Identification through absolute magnitude restrictions∗

This paper studies spillovers among US and European sovereign yields. We employ absolute magnitude restrictions on the impact matrix to identify the countries that were the main sources of spillovers. Despite the large size of shocks from euro area stressed countries, connectedness among sovereign yields declined between 2008 and 2012 due to financial fragmentation, particularly between countries with more divergent business and fiscal cycles. We show that none of the sovereign yields were insulated from foreign shocks and that shocks to the Greek bond market in 2010 explained 20–30% of the variance of sovereign yields in stressed countries, while in 2011–2012 Italy (not Spain) was the source of systemic risk.     

Co‐integration Rank Determination in Partial Systems Using Information Criteria

We investigate the asymptotic and finite sample properties of the most widely used information criteria for co‐integration rank determination in ‘partial’ systems, i.e. in co‐integrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models where a sub‐set of variables of interest is modelled conditional on another sub‐set of variables. The asymptotic properties of the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Hannan–Quinn information criterion (HQC) are established, and consistency of BIC and HQC is proved. Notably, the consistency of BIC and HQC is robust to violations of weak exogeneity of the conditioning variables with respect to the co‐integration parameters. More precisely, BIC and HQC recover the true co‐integration rank from the partial system analysis also when the conditional model does not convey all information about the co‐integration parameters. This result opens up interesting possibilities for practitioners who can now determine the co‐integration rank in partial systems without being concerned about the weak exogeneity of the conditioning variables. A Monte Carlo experiment based on a large dimensional data generating process shows that BIC and HQC applied in partial systems perform reasonably well in small samples and comparatively better than ‘traditional’ methods for co‐integration rank determination. We further show the usefulness of our approach and the benefits of the conditional system analysis in two empirical illustrations, both based on the estimation of VAR systems on US quarterly data. Overall, our analysis shows the gains of combining information criteria with partial system analysis.     

Sensitive Survey Questions: Measuring Attitudes Regarding Female Genital Cutting Through a List Experiment

Potential bias in survey responses is higher if sensitive outcomes are measured. This study analyses attitudes towards female genital cutting (FGC) in Ethiopia. A list experiment is designed to elicit truthful answers about FGC support and compares these outcomes with the answers given to a direct question. Our results confirm that the average bias is substantial as answers to direct questions underestimate the FGC support by about 10 percentage points. Moreover, our results provide suggestive but not statistically significant evidence that this bias is more pronounced among uneducated women and women targeted by an NGO intervention (not randomly assigned).     

Private versus public consumption within groups: testing the nature of goods from aggregate data

We study the testability implications of public versus private consumption in collective models of group consumption. The distinguishing feature of our approach is that we start from a revealed preference characterization of collectively rational behavior. Remarkably, we find that assumptions regarding the public or private nature of specific goods do have testability implications, even if one only observes the aggregate group consumption. In fact, these testability implications apply as soon as the analysis includes three goods and four observations. This stands in sharp contrast with existing results that start from a differential characterization of collectively rational behavior.     

How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?

We analyze the impact of a drop in fertility on the optimal allocation of resources in an overlapping generations economy where old workers care about leisure. We also characterize optimal dynamics and study the decentralization of the optimum by means of inter‐generational transfers and/or public debt. We conclude that the policy recommendations of postponing retirement is fragile and depend on preferences and technologies. Also, even when the optimal adjustment of public debt goes into the expected direction in the long run—i.e., public debt should decrease—this may not be the case during the transition.     

均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济高质量发展

本文首先从理论层面系统阐述均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济增长质量三者之间的多重作用机制。其次立足"五大发展理念"构建综合指标体系对经济增长质量展开测度,本文发现我国地方经济增长质量虽然在整体上呈缓慢上升态势,但其绝对水平相对偏低,且具有较为明显的地区异质性。最后本文通过构建动态面板联立方程模型与采取三阶段最小二乘法进行实证考察,结果表明:地方政府公共支出结构与经济增长质量显著正相关,但均衡性转移支付与经济增长质量的正相关关系并不显著。标准化回归结果显示均衡性转移支付能够通过优化公共支出结构对地方经济增长质量产生间接提升效应。     

A Nonlinear Relationship: Unemployment and Economic Growth (Construction Sector) in Spain, 1995.1–2012.2

A quadratic version of the first-difference Okun’s Law model was estimated for Spain (1995.Q1-2012.Q2). An accelerationist version of Okun’s Law was obtained, which allowed us to calculate variable Okun coefficients as well as critical points in the relationship between construction sector growth and the variation in overall unemployment. The optimal economic growth rate was determined to be 7.38 %. By applying principal components, it is demonstrated that this sector led the economic process after 1995.