A dynamic two country Heckscher–Ohlin model with non-homothetic preferences

We examine the properties of a two-country dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model that allows for preferences to be non-homothetic. We show that the model has a continuum of steady state equilibria under free trade, with the initial conditions determining which equilibrium will be attained. We establish conditions under which a static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem will hold in the steady state, and also conditions for a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem to hold. If both goods are normal, each country will have a unique autarkic steady state, and all steady state equilibria are saddle points. We also consider the case in which one good is inferior, and show that this can lead to multiple autarkic steady states, violations of the static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem in the steady state. Furthermore, there may exist steady state equilibria that Pareto dominate other steady states. These steady states will be unstable if discount factors are the same in each country, although they may exhibit dynamic indeterminacy if discount factors differ.     

Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary–fiscal policy combinations.     

Inflation and the fiscal limit

We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a “fiscal limit”. The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers.     

Lifestyles of the rich and polygynous in Cote d’Ivoire

This paper investigates whether the sources of income, not just the levels, determine whether an individual is monogamous. Our results support the idea that polygyny stunts development by allowing wealthy men to acquire wives rather than investing in child quality.     

Causality effects in return volatility measures with random times

We provide a structural approach to identify instantaneous causality effects between durations and stock price volatility. So far, in the literature, instantaneous causality effects have either been excluded or cannot be identified separately from Granger type causality effects. By giving explicit moment conditions for observed returns over (random) duration intervals, we are able to identify an instantaneous causality effect. The documented causality effect has significant impact on inference for tick-by-tick data. We find that instantaneous volatility forecasts for, e.g., IBM stock returns must be decreased by as much as 40% when not having seen the next quote change before its (conditionally) median time. Also, instantaneous volatilities are found to be much higher than indicated by standard volatility assessment procedures using tick-by-tick data. For IBM, a naive assessment of spot volatility based on observed returns between quote changes would only account for 60% of the actual volatility. For less liquidly traded stocks at NYSE this effect is even stronger.     

Becoming an evidence‐based HR practitioner

Evidence‐based HR (EBHR) is a decision‐making process combining critical thinking with use of the best available scientific evidence and business information. We describe how to get started as an evidence‐based HR practitioner. Actively managing professional decisions is a key aspect of EBHR. Doing so involves making decisions, especially consequential or recurring ones, using practices supported by high‐quality research. We present a step‐by‐step set of approaches to becoming an evidence‐based HR practitioner: from getting started, through everyday practices and continuous learning to integrating EBHR into your organisation. In offering guidance for evidence‐based practice, this article underscores the connection between effective practice and organisational research.     

Distributional dynamics following a technological revolution

In this paper we explore the link between technological change and the dynamics of employment, production, and the distribution of earnings. Technological change not only advances society's collective capability but also changes the relative productivities of its members. The latter effect establishes the likely winners and losers from advances in productive capabilities, provides a mechanism that can generate cyclical fluctuations in output as well as employment, and determines the evolution of the earnings distribution.
Dynamique de la répartition à la suite d'une révolution technologique . Ce mémoire examine le lien entre le changement technologique et la dynamique de l'emploi, de la production et de la répartition des revenus. Le changement technologique n'augmente pas seulement la capacité collective d'une société mais modifie aussi les productivités relatives de ses membres. Ce dernier effet crée des gagnants et des perdants, déclenche un mécanisme qui peut générer des fluctuations cycliques tant dans le niveau de production que dans celui de l'emploi, et détermine l'évolution de la répartition des revenus.     

Modelling innovation support systems for regional development – analysis of cluster structures in innovation in Portugal

The present article offers a concise theoretical conceptualization and operational analysis of the contribution of innovation to regional development. The latter concepts are closely related to geographical proximity, knowledge diffusion and filters and clustering. Institutional innovation profiles and regional patterns of innovation are two mutually linked, novel conceptual elements in this article. Next to a theoretical framing, the article employs the regional innovation systems concept as a vehicle to analyse institutional innovation profiles. Our case study addresses three Portuguese regions and their institutions, included in a web-based inventory of innovation agencies which offered the foundation for an extensive database. This data-set was analysed by means of a recently developed principal coordinates analysis followed by a Logistic Biplot approach (leading to a Voronoi mapping) to design a systemic typology of innovation structures where each institution is individually represented. There appears to be a significant difference in the regional innovation patterns resulting from the diverse institutional innovation profiles concerned. These profiles appear to be region specific. Our conclusion highlights the main advantages in the use of the method used for policy-makers and business companies.