Demand, comparative advantage and economic geography in international trade: Evidence from the OECD

Demand, Comparative Advantage and Economic Geography in International Trade: Evidence from the OECD. — This paper examines the influence of demand on the pattern of net trade for 17 OECD countries. It is found that demand differences are important as a cause of international trade. In fact, for the majority of countries, demand factors explain more of the net trade pattern than do factor proportions. The evidence offers some support for the modern geography and trade theories: high domestic demand in an industry leads to a net export for the majority of cases. The evidence is, however, not clear-cut. Moreover, a demand bias in favour of domestic varieties leads to a net export. Here, the evidence is clear-cut.     

Measuring New Product Success: The Difference that Time Perspective Makes

Management is often criticized for overemphasizing short-term profits at the expense of long-term growth. On the other hand, although numerous studies have explored the factors underlying new product success and failure, such studies rarely distinguish between short- and long-term success. In fact, little research has been conducted to explore the relationship between a company's time perspective and its choice of criteria for measuring new product success. For that matter, little consensus exists as to just what we mean by the term success. Expanding on work done by a PDMA task force on measurement of new product success and failure, Erik Jan Hultink and Henry S.J. Robben identify 16 core measures of new product success. In a survey of large Dutch companies, they explore managers' perceptions of new product success, hypothesizing that the importance attached to each of the 16 core measures depends on the company's time perspective. For example, they propose that criteria such as development cost and speed-to-market are more important in the short term, and return-on-investiment (ROI) is more important in the long term. The study also examines the type of market served, the innovation strategy, and the perceived innovativeness of the company's products. It is hypothesized that these factors will influence the importance the company attaches to the core measures of new product success. For example, it is expected that speed-to-market is probably more important for technological innovators than for fast imitators or cost minimizers. The findings support the hypothesis that the firm's time perspective influences the perceived importance of the core measures of success. For the short term, the respondents emphasize product-level measures such as speed-to-market and whether the product was launched on time. In the long term, the focus is on customer acceptance and financial performance, including attaining goals for profitability, margins, and ROI. Four factors are perceived as being equally important for short-term and long-term success: customer satisfaction, customer acceptance, meeting quality guidelines, and product performance level. Customer satisfaction was found to be the most important measure, regardless of a company's time perspective. Contrary to expectations, the perceived importance of the 16 core measures does not differ on the basis of the type of market, the innovation strategy, or the product's perceived innovativeness. In addition, the firm's functional orientation—technology push or market pull—does not affect the importance attached to the core measures of new product success.     

Useful Properties of Exchange Rate Forecasts for Risk Management and Derivative Pricing

We examine three useful properties of the yen/dollar exchange‐rate forecasts that are published in January and July in the Wall Street Journal. Those properties are the level of explanatory power, whether some forecasters are consistently better than others, and whether the dispersion of forecasts can predict the volatility of the exchange rates. The results show that the relative accuracy of the individual forecasts has not been random each period, and the evidence suggests that some forecasters are consistently better than others. The forecasts from the best forecasters explain about half of the variability in the semiannual exchange‐rate series. Finally, the dispersion of all the forecasts each period, as measured by the standard deviation, has predictive power with respect to the daily volatility of the forecasts for the three months following the survey. This final property has implications for the pricing and use of currency options. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Stock Market Reactions and Information Transfer Due to Financial Instability in the Life Insurance Industry

ABSTRACT: This study examines the stock market reactions and information transfer effects due to financial instability for four life insurance companies that eventually failed or were taken over by regulators. The four companies were First Executive Corporation, First Capital Holdings Corporation, Monarch Capital Corporation, and Mutual Benefit Life Insurance Company. In general, significant negative capital market responses were found after a company released an announcement regarding financial instability. Information transfer effects of a negative announcement by one insurer were not found to have a significant impact on the other insurers. This study complements past studies of contagion effects within the insurance industry.     

Mirko Marr (Hrsg.): Kommunikationsallrounder für die Mediengesellschaft Schweiz . Die Absolventinnen und Absolventen des IPMZ — Institut für Publizistikwissenschaft und Medienforschung der Universit?t Zürich

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