Stylised facts of financial time series and hidden Markov models in continuous time

Hidden Markov models are often applied in quantitative finance to capture the stylised facts of financial returns. They are usually discrete-time models and the number of states rarely exceeds two because of the quadratic increase in the number of parameters with the number of states. This paper presents an extension to continuous time where it is possible to increase the number of states with a linear rather than quadratic growth in the number of parameters. The possibility of increasing the number of states leads to a better fit to both the distributional and temporal properties of daily returns.     

Analysis of fixed broadband access and use in Thailand: Drivers and barriers

The aim of this paper is to analyze the demand for fixed broadband in Thailand. Data were obtained from a national survey in 2010 by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) of Thailand. The bivariate probit model was employed to examine empirically whether accessibility to fixed telephony infrastructure, socio-economic variables and the area of residence have a systematic link to fixed broadband access in the first stage, and then, specific usage, provided access exists, is estimated. Results of this study show that the variables, together with their potential impact, are as follows: fixed infrastructure, income, gender, level of education, age of consumer and residential area. The impact of these factors varies from service to service (i.e. video download, social network, searching and e-mail). The implications for the NBTC are to encourage competition through the infrastructure and to permit more competition in infrastructure development. This could stimulate the growth of fixed broadband access and use. At the same time, the government could also implement policies to encourage more access and usage, for example income subsidization and training program.     

Poverty Elasticity: A Note on a New Empirical Approach

This note proposes a non‐parametric estimation method controlled for endogeneity to calculate poverty elasticities for a panel of countries. Results show that usual linear estimates without control for endogeneity overestimate the growth elasticity of poverty.     

Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies

We study the stabilizing properties of exchange rates in five small open economies during to periods of floating exchange rates and inflation targeting. In the cases of Sweden and Canada, the nominal exchange rates behave in a stabilizing manner. Most exchange rate movements emanate from the exchange rate itself and are hence not responses to fundamental shocks. However, these non-fundamental shocks have only negligible effects on output and inflation. Our findings indicate that exchange rates display some stabilizing properties but can mainly be characterized as disconnected from the rest of the economy. We would like to thank Nils Gottfries and participants at seminars at Uppsala University and the Riksbank for helpful advice and useful comments. Post gratefully acknowledges financial support from Handelsbankens forskningsstiftelser.     

More equal but not so fair: an analysis of Brazilian income distribution from 1995 to 2009

This study measures unfair inequality in Brazil between 1995 and 2009. To achieve that, we used the statistical tool developed by Almås et al. (J Public Econ 95:488–499, 2011) and the concept of “responsibility-sensitive” fairness proposed by Bossert (Math Soc Sci 29:1–17, 1995), Konow (J Econ Behav Organ 31(1):13–35, 1996) and Cappelen and Tungodden (Fairness and the proportionality principle, Discussion paper SAM 31/2007. Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, 2007). The results indicate that the fairness level in Brazil remained unchanged throughout the analyzed period.     

Wie viel Europa braucht die Energiewende?

It is often argued that Germany’s energy transition (the so-called “Energiewende”) needs to be “Europeanized”, so as to make the transition process more efficient. In particular, the German system of feed-in tariffs for renewables is criticized for being an obstacle to efficient European energy supply. However, we point out that Germany’s approach is no outlier but rather well embedded in the European context of heterogeneous energy policies. Also, full centralization and harmonization of political decisions on the EU-level may not be desirable in many fields of energy policy beyond climate protection if the full economic costs of energy supply are taken into account. In addition, legal and politico-economic constraints need to be considered. Against this background, we identify priorities for fostering the European dimension of the Member States’ energy policies, such as the coordination of grid extensions and capacity markets.     

Die Förderung der erneuerbaren Energien nach der EEG-Reform 2014

After fierce public and political debates, an amendment to Germany’s Renewable Energy Sources Act took effect on 1 August. This article provides an assessment of the revisions made: What is the impact of the amendment on the future progress of the German energy transition? Does it provide for a significant reduction and fairer distribution of the costs associated with support for renewables? Does it appropriately address the fundamental challenges associated with the market and system integration of renewable energy sources?     

Enforcement and Good Corporate Governance in Developing Countries and Transition Economies

More than regulations, laws on the books, or voluntary codes,enforcement is key to creating an effective business environmentand good corporate governance, at least in developing countriesand transition economies. A framework is presented to help explainenforcement, the impact on corporate governance when rules arenot enforced, and what can be done to improve corporate governancein weak enforcement environments. The limited empirical evidencesuggests that private enforcement tools are often more effectivethan public tools. However, some public enforcement is necessary,and private enforcement mechanisms often require public lawsto function. Private initiatives are often also taken underthe threat of legislation or regulation, although in some countriesbottom-up, private-led initiatives preceded and even shapedpublic laws. Concentrated ownership aligns incentives and encouragesmonitoring, but it weakens other corporate governance mechanismsand can impose significant costs. Various steps can be takento reduce these costs and reinforce other corporate governancemechanisms. But political economy constraints, resulting fromthe intermingling of business and politics, often prevent improvementsin the enforcement environment and the adoption and implementationof public laws.      

Teaching economics as though values matter

Economics is permeated with value judgements, and removing them would be neither possible nor desirable. They are consequential, in the sense that they have a sizeable impact on economists’ output. Yet many economists may not even realise they are there. This paper surveys ways in which values influence economic theory and practice and explores some implications for the manner in which economics – especially welfare economics – is taught, practised and communicated. Explicit attention to values needs to be embedded in the teaching of economics at all levels.