On the selection of forecasting models

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of these methods in terms of their ability to mimimize the true out-of-sample PMSE, allowing for possible misspecification of the forecast models under consideration. We show that under suitable conditions the IC method will be consistent for the best approximating model among the candidate models. In contrast, under standard assumptions the SOOS method, whether based on recursive or rolling regressions, will select overparameterized models with positive probability, resulting in excessive finite-sample PMSEs.     

Developing countries in the environmental crisis

It is not only the economic gap between “North” and “South” which has dramatically widened: the same is true of the ecological gap. However, because the Earth is one ecological unit, the progressively worsening environmental crisis in the developing countries is of significance for the whole world.     

III. Weltwirtschaft und wirtschaft einzlner länderund und gebiete

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

I. Allgemeine wirstchaftslehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Vorwort

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Die falschen Angriffe auf das Ehegattensplitting

These articles debate the pros and cons of the full income-splitting tax procedure. Ernst Niemeier defends this taxation scheme, because in his opinion it is not aimed at furthering families or children but making sure that a couple does not have to pay more taxes than two singles. He argues that there are constitutional reasons to treat equal incomes equally, which he refers to as “horizontal justice”. Furthermore, he rejects evidence of a negative labour supply effect on the second earner. A team of authors at the DIW find his argumentation not at all convincing. First, they say, determining tax justice or ability to pay is ultimately a political question and cannot be determined by scientists or the courts. Thus, a constitutional determination of marriage taxation on the existing full income-splitting procedure is excessive. Second, the empirical evidence of negative labour supply effects of full income splitting for the second earner can simply not be denied. Niemeier argues why such supply effects cannot exist.     

Three generations of Telework: New ICTs and the (R)evolution from Home Office to Virtual Office

‘New ICTs’, such as smartphones and tablet computers, have revolutionised work and life in the 21st Century. Crucial to this development is the detachment of work from traditional office spaces. Today's office work is often supported by Internet connections, and thus can be done from anywhere at any time. Research on detachment of work from the employer's premises actually dates back to the previous century. In the 1970s and 1980s, Jack Nilles and Allan Toffler predicted that work of the future would be relocated into or nearby employees’ homes with the help of technology, called ‘Telework’. Analysing technological advancements—the enabling forces of change in this context—over four decades sheds new light on this term: they have fostered the evolution of Telework in distinct stages or ‘generations’. Today's various location‐independent, technology‐enabled new ways of working are all part of the same revolution in the inter‐relationship between paid work and personal life.