An analysis of some short-term health effects of air pollution in the Washington,D.C. metropolitan area

This study assesses some of the short-term health effects of air pollution in Washington, D.C. Specifically, regression models are formulated to explain health-care visits to a group practice medical care plan. Primary interest is focused on the effects of mobile-source air pollutants, particularly photo-chemical oxidants. Meteorological conditions, as well as other variables thought to influence the consumption of medical services, are included in the models as explanatory variables. The study found only a small effect of air pollution levels on the health-care visits to the group practice.     

Asset returns and inflation

We estimate the extent to which various assets were hedges against the expected and unexpected components of the inflation rate during the 1953–1971 period. We find that U.S. government bonds and bills were a complete hedge against expected inflation, and private residential real estate was a complete hedge against both expected and unexpected inflation. Labor income showed little short-term relationship with either expected or unexpected inflation. The most anomalous result is that common stock returns were negatively related to the expected component of the inflation rate, and probably also to the unexpected component.     

The information in the term structure

This paper presents a regression approach to measuring the information in forward interest rates about time varying premiums and future spot interest rates. Like earlier work, the regressions identify variation in the expected premiums on longer-maturity Treasury bills. The more novel evidence concerns the forecasts of future spot rates in forward rates. The regressions provide evidence that the one-month forward rate has power to predict the spot rate one month ahead. During periods preceding 1974, forward rates have reliable forecast power for one-month spot rates up to five months in the future.     

A Recommended formula for scoring probabilistic multiple-choice tests

This paper addresses the issue of how best to score test responses obtained when using Probabilistically Answered Examinations (PAE). After discussing the PAE methodology, the paper identifies and explores the attributes of a simple, intuitively appealing scoring rule. The results of this analysis suggest that, in many classroom situations, this simple scoring rule produces indices of test effectiveness that are at least as good as those produced by more complicated and costly scoring rules. These tentative findings are drawn upon in support of the use of this simple scoring rule with PAE.     

Implementing: Alternatives,costs, and benefits

This essay provides a conceptual framework for thinking about the problem of implementing (i.e. getting things done) as part of the larger process of managing. We shall isolate some alternative approaches to that implementing problem and briefly examine the underlying beliefs, the accompanying technologies, and the attendant costs/benefits of those alternatives. We shall then make a few suggestions about appropriate alternatives for the decade ahead.     

A Look Back at Modern Finance: Accomplishments and Limitations

In a conversation held in June 2016 between Nobel laureate Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago and Joel Stern, chairman and CEO of Stern Value Management, Professor Fama revisited some of the landmarks of “modern finance,” a movement that was launched in the early 1960s at Chicago and other leading business schools, and that gave rise to Efficient Markets Theory, the Modigliani‐Miller “irrelevance” propositions, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. These concepts and models are still taught at prestigious business schools, whose graduates continue to make use of them in corporations and investment firms throughout the world. But while acknowledging the staying power of “modern finance,” Fama also notes that, even after a half‐century of research and refinements, most asset‐pricing models have failed empirically. Estimating something as apparently simple as the cost of capital remains fraught with difficulty. He dismisses betas for individual stocks as “garbage,” and even industry betas are said to be unstable, “too dynamic through time.” What's more, the wide range of estimates for the market risk premium—anywhere from 2% to 10%—casts doubt on their reliability and practical usefulness. And as if to reaffirm the fundamental insight of the M&M “irrelevance” propositions—namely, that what companies do with the right‐hand sides of their balance sheets “doesn't matter”—Fama observes that “we still have no real resolution on the key questions of debt and taxes, or dividends and taxes.” But if he has reservations about much of modern finance, Professor Fama is even more skeptical about subfields now in vogue such as behavioral finance, which he describes as “mostly just dredging for anomalies,” with no underlying theory and no testable predictions. Although he does not dispute that a number of well‐documented traits from cognitive psychology show up in individual behavior, Fama says that behavioral economists have thus far failed to come up with a testable theory that links cognitive psychology to market prices. And he continues to defend the concept of “efficient markets” with which his name has long been closely associated, while noting that empirically based asset pricing models such as his (with Ken French) “three‐factor” CAPM have produced much better results than the standard CAPM.     

The Business Case for Gender Diversity: Examining the Role of Human Resource Management Investments

Integrating opposing theoretical perspectives from the past literature, the authors hypothesize and test a U‐shaped curvilinear relationship between gender diversity and workforce productivity. They further propose that the curvilinear effects vary depending on the levels of an organization's human resource management (HRM) investments in pay, benefit, training, and communication; that is, the patterns are more salient when HRM investments are high rather than low. To enhance understanding of how HRM investments have impact on diverse employees, the authors also examine the moderating influence of organizational identification of diverse members that can exert proximal influence on the diversity‐productivity relationship. As predicted, results reveal that high levels of HRM investments influence the gender diversity–workforce productivity association to form a U‐shaped curvilinear relationship. Organizational identification also yields the same moderating patterns. Research and practical implications are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.