Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment, and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.     

Project Labor Agreements' Effect on School Construction Costs in Massachusetts

This paper investigates the impact of Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) on school construction cost in Massachusetts. Although simple models exhibit a large positive effect of PLAs on construction costs, such effects are absent from more completely specified models. Further investigation finds sufficient dissimilarity in schools built with and without PLAs that it is difficult to distinguish the cost effects of PLAs from the cost effects of factors that underlie the use of PLAs.     

MARKETS FOR ORGANS: THE QUESTION OF SUPPLY

Organ transplantation holds the potential to substantially restore the health of many otherwise terminally ill patients. That potential, however, is currently being denied full realization by a chronic and severe shortage of cadaveric organs that are made available for this use. In recent years, medical practitioners, social scientists, and others have debated the virtues of allowing markets for cadaveric organs to form as a way to end the current shortage. In this debate, market opponents have argued, inter alia, that (1) organ collections may fall with payment of positive prices and (2) the price required to equilibrate organ supply and demand would be high. On the other hand, proponents of organ markets have argued that financial inducements could save many lives and that the equilibrium price is likely to be low. While dozens of papers have been published debating this issue, to date no one has provided any empirical evidence to resolve these important questions of supply. This paper provides preliminary evidence suggesting that potential donors would be relatively responsive to financial inducements and, accordingly, that the price required to eliminate the current shortage of organs is surprisingly low. (JEL 118, L50)     

International Accounting Standards for Line-of-Business Reporting and Oligopoly Competition*

Abstract. This article presents a model in which the impact of international accounting standards on product market competition can be assessed. Formulating the choice of disclosure rules as the first stage in a multistage game between countries and representative incumbent and entrant firms, we establish conditions under which an enforceable international standard to require line-of-business (LOB) reporting could lead to strict improvement in the expected national welfare of participating countries over the equilibrium that would otherwise be attained. Additional results consider the effects of changes in certain model assumptions and the addition of tariffs as further trade policy instruments. Résumé. Les auteurs proposent un modèle permettant d'évaluer l'incidence des normes comptables internationales sur la concurrence, sur les marchés de produits. Ils posent d'abord le choix des règles de présentation de l'information comme étant la première étape d'un jeu à multiples épisodes entre les pays et entre les sociétés en place représentatives du secteur et les nouvelles venues. Ils établissent ensuite les conditions dans lesquelles l'application possible d'une norme internationale exigeant la publication d'information sectorielle pourrait mener à une stricte amélioration de la prospérité nationale attendue des pays participants, au-delà du niveau d'équilibre qui serait autrement atteint. Les auteurs s'intéressent entre autres, dans leurs travaux, aux répercussions de la modification de certaines hypothèses du modèle et de l'introduction des tarifs douaniers à titre d'instruments de la politique d'échange.     

ELIMINATING THE INFLATIONARY FINANCE TRAP IN A POLITICALLY UNSTABLE COUNTRY: DOMESTIC POLITICS VS. INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE

This paper presents an intertemporal political economy model of public finance relevant for developing and transition countries where there is inherent political instability. As in Cukierman et al. (1992) , it is shown that political instability causes myopic behaviour by a rational government resulting in high levels of revenue from seigniorage. It is then argued that inflationary finance also increases barter and currency substitution, but if the government tries to suppress them, seigniorage taxation rises even more. Only international financial pressure can help eliminate the inflationary finance trap, but becomes less effective as the instability increases.     

Tax Expense Momentum

We investigate the joint hypothesis that (1) tax expense contains information about core profitability that is incremental to reported earnings and (2) that information is reflected in stock prices with a delay. We find that seasonally differenced quarterly tax expense, our proxy for tax expense surprise, is related positively to future returns. This anomaly is separate from previously documented pricing anomalies based on financial and tax variables. Additional investigation reveals that tax expense surprise is related positively to changes in future quarterly earnings and tax expense, and both those future changes are related positively to future returns. While the returns to investing in predictable future earnings changes has been documented before, these results suggest that predicting changes in future tax expense also generates incremental future returns.     

Trends in real wages during the industrial revolution: a view from across the Irish Sea

This article calculates cost of living indices for Ireland between 1785 and 1870 and real wage indices for agricultural labourers, textile workers, and building workers. These indices show gains in real wages which are not consistent with current hypotheses about widespread pre-Famine immiseration, though textile workers did experience a reduction in earning power. Before the Famine, wages proved sticky downwards in the face of falling prices; after the Famine, money wages rose faster than prices. A revised UK index suggests that real wages began their increase earlier, in the 1820s, and increased by around an additional 10 percentage points by 1870.     

Business Cycles, Heuristic Expectation Formation, and Contracyclical Policies

We develop a simple Keynesian‐type business cycle model in which agents use simple heuristics to predict national income. To be precise, the agents either form (destabilizing) extrapolative expectations or (stabilizing) regressive expectations, a decision which depends on the rules forecasting performance in the recent past. As it turns out, an unending evolutionary competition between the rules may generate endogenous complex business cycles. We also explore the effectiveness of some common governmental intervention strategies. Our model suggests that policy makers may be able to stabilize output fluctuations, yet due to system immanent nonlinearities this may prove to be quite difficult.     

Does the Specialist Matter? Differential Execution Costs and Intersecurity Subsidization on the New York Stock Exchange

This article tests for differences in execution costs among specialist firms for New York Stock Exchange listed securities. Execution cost differences provide a measure of the relative performance of specialist firms. We find a substantial difference in effective spreads and order processing costs across specialist firms, controlling for stock characteristics. While economically significant, the differences in execution costs between specialist firms are much smaller than the cross-market differences reported by Huang and Stoll (1996). Within a specialist firm, there is a positive relation between order processing costs and trading activity that is consistent with the hypothesis that active stocks subsidize inactive stocks.