The Tariff-Only Import Regime for Bananas in the European Union: Impacts on ACP and Non-ACP Suppliers

The European Union is bound by World Trade Organisation agreements to move to a tariff-only import regime for bananas no later than 1 January 2006. What should change at that date is the trade regime, not the level of protection offered to African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. This article provides an assessment of the trade impact of this tariff-only regime on the basis of simulations carried out with a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the world banana market using 2002–03 as the base year. Simulation results show that the tariff levied on imports from non-ACP countries should be set at around €250 per tonne in order to maintain in 2008 the EU import structure that prevailed in 2003. A lower tariff would increase EU total imports, to the benefit of non-ACP countries and to the detriment of the group of ACP countries. Conversely, a higher tariff would decrease EU imports from non-ACP countries and increase imports from ACP suppliers. Under this assumption, the increase in ACP exports to the EU would mainly benefit the two West African suppliers, Cameroon and Ivory Coast, who are more competitive and have a more price elastic supply than the ACP suppliers of the Caribbean islands.     

Imperfect information and the business cycle

Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the new Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the Central Bank. A third on persistent mis-perceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK-DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism.     

CAP Reform: Prospects for crop markets in the Enlarged EU: Reform der GAP: Aussichten für die Märkten von Feldfrüchten in der erweiterten EU: La rëforme de la PAC: I'avenir des marchés agricoles dans I'Europe élargie

CAP Reform: Prospects for crop markets in the Enlarged EU Agricultural Policy Modelling in the EU has become more complicated due to the recent CAP reform and EU Enlargement. Under the AGMEMOD (Agricultural Member States Modelling) Partnership, teams of economists with specialist knowledge of agriculture in their own countries have come together to build the AGMEMOD model. The model can be used to analyse the impact of policy reform at a country level in EU member states and at an aggregate EU level. The model covers a wide variety of agricultural commodities, but this article focuses specifically on the impact of the policy reform on the cereals sector. Results are presented for the EU15 in aggregate, the New Member States (NMS), Bulgaria and Romania. The implication of EU Enlargement is also examined for the accession countries. For the EU15, results suggest that there would be a modest reduction in grain production and a slightly larger reduction in oilseeds production by 2010, as a response to the decoupling of cereal payments. Results for the NMS suggest that their accession will bring some modest growth in grains production by 2010, This result is not greatly different from that which might have been achieved had these countries remained outside the EU. The recent reforms limit the extent to which the CAP stimulates increased production in the NMS. La réforme de la PAC: l'avenir des marches agricoles dans l'Europe élargie Avec l'elargissement et la recente reforme de la PAC, modeliser la politique agricole europeenne devient de plus en plus difficile. C'est pour cela que plusieurs Cquipes d'kconomistes ‐ chacune selectionnee sur la base de ses connaissances accumulees sur l'agriculture de son propre pays ‐ se sont associees pour construire le modele AGMEMOD, dans le cadre du partenariat MAEM (Modelisation Agricole des Etats Membres). Ce modkle est utilisable pour analyser l'impact des reformes de la politique agricole, tant au niveau de l'Europe entiere qu'i celui de chacun des Etats membres. Il couvre une vaste variete de produits agricoles, mme si le present article met I'accent sur les cereales. k s resultats sont prksentes pour les agrigats ‘Europe a 15’, ‘NMS’ (nouveaux ktats membres), Bulgarie et Roumanie. On examine aussi, ici, les implications de I'elargissement de I'Union pour les nouveaux membres. Pour 1'Europe a 15, a la suite du dkcouplage des aides cerealieres, les resultats conduisent i envisager a I'horizon 2010 une modeste reduction de la production de cereales et une reduction un peu plus forte de la production dolkagineux. Dans le mCme temps, les NMS devraient connaitre un faible accroissement de leur production de cereales. Ceci n'est pas fondamentalement different de ce qui serait arrive si ces pays etaient restes en dehors de 1'Europe. Dans les NMS, les reformes recentes ont pour effet de brider les accroissements de production auxquels I'application de la PAC aurait permis de s'attendre. Reform der GAP: Aussichten für die Märkte von Feldfruchten in der erweiterten EU Die Modellierung von Agrarpolitiken in der EU gestaltet sich auf Grund der kurzlich durchgefiihrten Reform der GAP und der EU‐Erweiterung zunehmend schwieriger. Im Rahmen der AGMEMOD (Agricultural Member States Modelling, Agrarmodellierung von Mitgliedstaaten)‐Partnerschaft haben sich Okonomen zusammengefunden, die im Hinblick auf die Landwirtschaft in ihren Heimatlandern uber Fachkenntnisse verfiigen, um das AGMEMOD‐Modell zu erarbeiten. Mit Hilfe dieses Modells konnen die Auswirkungen der Politikreformen sowohl auf Ebene der EU‐Mitgliedstaaten als auch auf aggregierter EU‐Ebene analysiert werden. Das Modell deckt eine groRe Anzahl von landwirtschaftlichen Produkten ab; dieser Artikel behandelt jedoch insbesondere die Auswirkungen der Politikreformen auf dem Getreidesektor. Die Ergebnisse werden fiir die aggregierte EU‐15, die neuen Mitgliedstaaten (NMS) sowie fiir Bulgarien und Rumanien dargestellt. Die Auswirkungen der ELI‐Erweiterung werden ebenfalls ftir die Beitrittslander untersucht. Im Fall der EU‐15 zeigen die Ergebnisse einen geingen Ruckgang bei der Getreideproduktion und einen etwas hoheren Ruckgang bei der Olsaatenproduktion bis zum Jahr 2010 als Folge der Entkopplung der Getreidezahlungen. Die Ergebnisse fiir die NMS deuten darauf hin, dass sich ein geringes Wachstum der Getreideproduktion bis zum Jahr 2010 ergeben wird. Dieses Ergebnis unterscheidet sich nicht wesentlich von einem Szenarium, in welchem diese Lander der EU nicht beigetreten waren. Die kurzlich durchgefiihrten Reformen begrenzen die produktionssteigernde Wirkung der GAP in den NMS.     

Recent Technological and Economic Change among Industrialized Countries: Insights from Population Growth*

Cross‐country observations on the effects of population growth are used to show why differences in rates of growth in working‐age population may be a key to understanding differences in economic performance across industrialized countries over the period 1975–1997 versus 1960–1974. In particular, we argue that countries with lower rates of adult population growth adopted new capital‐intensive technologies more quickly than their high population growth counterparts, therefore allowing them to reduce their work time without deterioration of growth in output‐per‐adult.     

Who is the Athlete Endorser? A Cross-Cultural Exploration of Advertising Practitioners’ Views

ABSTRACT

This study, via the use of focus groups, explores the common meanings that advertising practitioners in 10 countries associate with athlete endorsers. The study's macro perspective brings a unique understanding of practitioners’ universal thinking and practices in relation to athlete endorsement. It reveals that practitioners across the world correlate athlete endorsers with a wide range of positive and useful psychological, social, physical, skillfulness, and sport meanings. In particular, authenticity, objective performance, and the athletes’ belonging to the realm of sport—considered by practitioners as a carrier of positive meanings and as a “meeting place” between audiences and endorsers—were identified as greatly contributing to athletes’ positive endorsement value. The article places the various universal dimensions of athletes raised by practitioners in a holistic conceptual profile, in order to help visualize and organize thoughts when selecting athlete endorsers for marketing campaigns.     

Is there still a productivity paradox? two methods for a transatlantic comparison

Economic activity accelerated in the United States, in the second part of the cycle, after 1995, within an environment of decreasing inflation. France has followed a qualitatively similar path since 1997, also clearly suggesting the effects of a positive supply shock. The spread of new information and communication technologies (NICT) partly explains these singular events. On one hand, a calculation of contributions to output growth suggests that they would explain about half of the increase in activity in the United States and one-fifth in France. On the other hand, a trend/cycle decomposition reveals that the structural acceleration in output and productivity gains in the United States are very much restricted to industries producing NICT and there is a rather small break in productivity gains. In France, where differences between sectors are not so clear-cut, the diffusion of NICT has been accompanied by a slowdown in trends in productivity gains. In both cases, there is little room left for the effects of the diffusion of technical progress associated with NICT.     

Financial liberalization and the relationship-specificity of exports

We investigate the causal impact of equity market liberalizations on sectoral export performance across 91 countries (1980–1997). The increased availability of external finance has boosted trade of industries that intensively use relationship-specific inputs, and lowered exports of industries using standardized inputs.     

British economic growth since 1270: the role of education

This paper constructs an original database on physical capital, labor, education, GDP, innovations, technology spillovers, and institutions to analyze the proximate determinants of British economic growth since 1270. Several approaches are taken in the paper to tackle endogeneity. We show that education has been the most important driver of income growth during the period 1270–2010, followed by knowledge stock and fixed capital, while institutions have not been robust determinants of growth. The contribution of education has been equally important before and after the first Industrial Revolution. Overall, the results give strong support to the predictions of Unified Growth Theories.     

Expected Precision of Estimation and Probability of Ruling Out a Hypothesis Based on a Confidence Interval

Interval estimation is an important objective of most experimental and observational studies. Knowing at the design stage of the study how wide the confidence interval (CI) is expected to be and where its limits are expected to fall can be very informative. Asymptotic distribution of the confidence limits can also be used to answer complex questions of power analysis by computing power as probability that a CI will exclude a given parameter value. The CI‐based approach to power and methods of calculating the expected size and location of asymptotic CIs as a measure of expected precision of estimation are reviewed in the present paper. The theory is illustrated with commonly used estimators, including unadjusted risk differences, odds ratios and rate ratios, as well as more complex estimators based on multivariable linear, logistic and Cox regression models. It is noted that in applications with the non‐linear models, some care must be exercised when selecting the appropriate variance expression. In particular, the well‐known ‘short‐cut’ variance formula for the Cox model can be very inaccurate under unequal allocation of subjects to comparison groups. A more accurate expression is derived analytically and validated in simulations. Applications with ‘exact’ CIs are also considered.