Entrepreneurship, structural change, and economic growth

The ability to adjust to structural change is vital to economic development, and entries can be active participants in this process. While the importance of factor reallocations for growth is widely discussed, the role of entrepreneurs in managing these reallocations is currently not well understood. This paper analyzes the role of entry activity for adjustments of the sectoral structure and its relevance for regional economic development. The historical framework is the accelerated economic transformation that occurred in industrialized countries during the mid 1970s, resulting in an increasing need to adjust. Based on German data from 1975 to 2002, evidence is presented that sectoral reallocations are an important means for transforming entrepreneurial activity into growth.     

Trade dynamics in Cape Town township informal foodservice – a qualitative and supply chain study

The township cash economy of fast food, takeaways, and prepared meals is collectively termed ‘informal foodservice’. An analysis of a five-township ～3800 microenterprise census, and qualitative supply chain investigation of 50 informal foodservice retailers and 75 consumers revealed a well-established although deeply informal trade predominated by women preparing takeaway foods and conducting street braai (BBQ). The business demonstrates high dependence on the immediate place of operations which includes local input suppliers and selling to a narrow pool of trade from immediate (walking scale) neighbourhoods. Supply chains are short, linked to formal agriculture and wholesale sectors. Informal foodservice is heavily utilised by local residents on a regular basis who spend up to R218 per week on products (potentially 30% of income) from these outlets. These enterprises make a substantial contribution towards satisfying local food demand whilst serving an important social protection and neighbourhood relationship function.     

Option pricing for GARCH-type models with generalized hyperbolic innovations

In this paper, we provide a new dynamic asset pricing model for plain vanilla options and we discuss its ability to produce minimum mispricing errors on equity option books. Given the historical measure, the dynamics of assets being modeled by Garch-type models with generalized hyperbolic innovations and the pricing kernel is an exponential affine function of the state variables, we show that the risk-neutral distribution is unique and again implies a generalized hyperbolic dynamics with changed parameters. We provide an empirical test for our pricing methodology on two data sets of options, respectively written on the French CAC 40 and the American SP 500. Then, using our theoretical result associated with Monte Carlo simulations, we compare this approach with natural competitors in order to test its efficiency. More generally, our empirical investigations analyse the ability of specific parametric innovations to reproduce market prices in the context of an exponential affine specification of the stochastic discount factor.     

Die Auswirkung des Schlüsselereignisses „Silvesternacht in Köln“ auf die Kriminalitätsberichterstattung

Key events captivate the attention of the news and the public. Previous research has shown that key events even influence news coverage that is not directly related to the key event. In fact, key events may increase the amount of news coverage about similar events. We investigated whether the key event “New Year’s Eve in Cologne” elicited a substantial effect on crime coverage. We hypothesized that the mentioning of foreigner-related attributes (foreigner, migration background, North African, and asylum seeker) has increased due to the key event. A content analysis of German news coverage supports this assumption. Therefore, the key event influenced journalistic selection decisions (i.?e., selection of events or selection of event attributes) that ultimately altered actual news coverage. This finding has important societal implications: The German press council recommends to only report on the nationality of offenders if there is a “justified reason.” As revealed by the present study, the key event influenced journalistic decision making and thus actual news coverage. This is an important finding because previous research indicates that the mentioning of foreigner-related attributes in crime articles can contribute to negative beliefs and attitudes toward foreigners and asylum seekers. This may ultimately influence the public debate about this issue.     

Distribution dynamics of regional GDP per employee in unified Germany

We investigate to what extent convergence in production levels per worker has been achieved in Germany since unification. To this end, we model the distribution of GDP per employee across German districts using two-component normal mixtures. While in the first year after unification, the two-component distributions were clearly separated and bimodal, corresponding to the East and West German districts, respectively, in the following years they started to merge showing only one mode. Still, using the recently developed EM-test for homogeneity in normal mixtures, the hypothesis of just a single normal component for the whole distribution is clearly rejected for all years. A Posterior analysis shows that about a third of the East German districts were assigned to the richer component in 2006, thus catching up to levels of the West. The growth rate of a mover district is about 1% point higher than the growth rate of a non-mover district which had the same initial level of GDP per employee.     

Decision time and steps of reasoning in a competitive market entry game

Entry decisions in market entry games usually depend on the belief about how many others are entering the market, the belief about the own rank in a real effort task, and subjects’ risk preferences. In this paper I am able to replicate these basic results and examine two further dimensions: (i) the level of strategic sophistication, which has a positive impact on entry decisions, and (ii) the impact of time pressure, which has a (partly) negative influence on entry rates. Furthermore, when ranks are determined using a real effort task, differences in entry rates are explainable by higher competitiveness of males. Additionally, I show that individual characteristics are more important for the entry decision in more competitive environments.     

Tax refunds and income manipulation: evidence from the EITC

Welfare programs are important in terms of reducing poverty, although they create incentives for recipients to maximize their income by either reducing their labor supply or manipulating their taxable income. In this paper, we quantify the extent of such behavioral responses for the earned income tax credit (EITC) in the USA. We exploit the fact that US states can set top-up rates, which means that at a given point in time, workers with the same income receive different tax refunds in different states. Using event studies as well as a border pair design, we document that raising the state EITC leads to more bunching of self-employed tax filers at the first kink point of the tax schedule. While we document a strong relationship up until 2007, we find no effect during the Great Recession. These findings point to important behavioral responses to the largest welfare program in the USA.