The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain

This paper focuses on the effects of fiscal policy in Spain analysed in a VAR context. Fiscal shocks are found to involve significant effects on GDP, private consumption, private investment, interest rates and prices. Non-Keynesian effects are observed. Moreover, evidence on the channels highlighted in the literature for such effects to arise is found, notably the effects of permanent income on consumption and investment on the demand side, coupled with the response of the equilibrium wage on the supply side affecting entrepreneurial profits and investment. The response of interest rates seems to reinforce both effects. Furthermore, the different readings of spending or taxes do not affect macroeconomic variables homogeneously.     

Bond risk premiums and optimal monetary policy

The bond yield dynamics implied by a welfare-maximizing monetary policy and its credibility are explored in general equilibrium. Credibility is captured by a regime change from discretion to commitment. The policy determines the optimal output and inflation responses to a source of inflation risk. Bond yields contain compensations for this risk that depend on the policy. Credibility improvements reduce the exposure to inflation risk and bond risk premiums decline. A model calibration implies lower yield spreads, less volatile yields, and reduced deviations from the expectations hypothesis under commitment. The model suggests an explanation for changes in yield dynamics in the U.S. across different policy regimes.     

Envy and Inequality*

We present an overlapping generations economy, populated by heterogeneous agents who care about both consumption relative to others and the bequest they leave to their offspring. We show that saving and bequest rates vary across the income distribution, and we obtain several interesting results. First, envy reduces the steady‐state capital stock and increases the degree of inequality in consumption, capital ownership, and bequests. Second, if the bequest motive is sufficiently strong the equalizing effect of bequests disappears. Third, income inequality for a given cohort increases with age. Fourth, the distribution of inherited wealth becomes more unequal than that of wealth in general. Fifth, economic position becomes more persistent across generations.     

On the epidemiology of injury in developing countries: A one-year emergency room-based surveillance experience from León,Nicaragua

Background Regularly available data has been shown to be inadequate for developing, implementing, and evaluating injury prevention and control programs in Nicaragua. A specific prevention-oriented local injury surveillance system has therefore been set up in the city of León. Objectives The aim of this paper is to describe the epidemiology of fatal and non-fatal injuries over a one-year period in a well-defined local population in Nicaragua, as emerging from the perspective of emergency room and inpatient treatments over a one-year period. Methods A hospital-based injury surveillance system was established to collect data for different levels of severity. All treated unintentional and intentional injuries were registered, including information on the external causes according to the ICD-9. Results Of all emergency room visits, 15.9% (9,970) were injuries. For every death due to injuries, there were 31 hospital admissions and 253 emergency room visits. Home and street/roads were the main arenas for the accidents. The estimated underreporting rate was about 6%, and in 20.3% of the cases, no E-code was assigned. The overall incidence and mortality rates were 56.2 per 1,000 and 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. However, comparison with a parallel household survey showed that the reporting rate of the surveillance system is only about 9%. The overall ratio of male to female injury rates was 2.1 to 1. The main causes of non-fatal injuries were falls, whereas the main cause of death was traffic accidents. Conclusions Hospital discharge and emergency room data systems are effective and feasible means for collecting the data needed to prevent injuries. However, in a country like Nicaragua with limited access to hospital health services, it is necessary to supplement such a system with additional sources of information in order to gain a more comprehensive picture of injury occurrence.     

What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation

Real effective exchange rate volatility is examined for 90 countries using monthly data from January 1990 to June 2006. Volatility decreases with openness to international trade and per capita GDP, and increases with inflation, particularly under a horizontal peg or band, and with terms-of-trade volatility. The choice of exchange rate regime matters. After controlling for these effects, an independent float adds at least 45% to the standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate, relative to a conventional peg, but most other regimes make little difference. The results are robust to alternative volatility measures and to sample selection bias.     

Relative consumption and renewable resource extraction under alternative property-rights regimes

This paper presents a simple model of resource extraction where preferences are defined over the individual’s consumption level, her effort and the comparison of her consumption with that of other members of the community. Our specification captures the intuition that lies behind the growing body of empirical evidence that places interpersonal comparisons as a key determinant of well-being. We consider the effect of consumption externalities under two alternative property-rights regimes: perfect property rights and open access. We identify two dimensions along which consumption externalities distort the efficient exploitation of resources, or, in the case of open access, aggravate the over-exploitation of resources: (i) the static trade-off between consumption and leisure, and (ii) the dynamic trade-off between current and future consumption. In general, envious agents over-exploit the natural resource stock, resulting in a steady-state stock lower than the efficient level chosen by a central planner. We propose a tax mechanism to induce the first-best outcome.     

Information Spillovers and the Choice of Export Destination: A Multinomial Logit Analysis of Spanish Young SMEs

Does having more firms around exporting to a particular destination improve the chances of exporting to that destination (e.g. through information spillovers)? We answer this question implementing a multinomial logit model of whether a firm exports to a particular country. To identify the source of information spillovers, we construct indicators of geographical concentration of exporters selling to a specific destination: within industry, multinationals and across industries. In our application with data for Spanish new small sized firms, only within-industry agglomeration of exporting domestic firms significantly affects the probability of small sized firms exporting to the same destination. The significance of localisation economies is robust to a barrage of controls including destination specific characteristics, gravitational factors (distance and level of development), firm heterogeneity (size) and regional differences.     

The Decision to Enter and Exit Foreign Markets: Evidence from U.K. SMEs

This paper studies the dynamics of the export behaviour of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the U.K. between 1994 and 1998. I use a dynamic empirical model to disentangle three distinct dimensions of a firms’ participation in foreign markets: sunk cost induced hysteresis, firm heterogeneity and macroeconomic instability. The results show that SMEs view exporting as an irreversible investment, with state dependence being the largest explanatory factor. Moreover, observable firm characteristics, such as size and ownership, play a significant role in distinguishing exporters from non-exporters. Finally, there is no evidence that the 1992–1993 recession influenced firms’ export decisions in subsequent years implying that the results provide a valid indication of SMEs "typical" export behaviour.     

An entrepreneurial cognition perspective on the internationalization of SMEs

Drawing from entrepreneurship, cognition, and international business theory, this paper develops a model integrating individual-level and firm-level characteristics to provide an entrepreneurial cognition perspective on the internationalization of small and medium size ventures. The model is tested on a sample of Spanish ventures using structural equation modeling techniques (partial least squares). Support is found for the central role of cognition and risk perception of CEOs in explaining the implementation of international expansion strategies for their firms.     

Managing complexity： A problem of chaos in fisheries policy

This work intends to present chaos theory （and dynamical systems such as the theories of complexity）, in terms of interpretation of ecological phenomena. The chaos theory applied in the context of ecological systems, especially in the context of fisheries has allowed the recognition of the relevance of this kind of theories to explain fishing phenomena and fisheries policies. It has permitted new advances in the study of marine systems, contributing to the preservation of fish stocks. This paper deals with the way how to manage fisheries taking chaos in account of the problem.