Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis

Government-guaranteed mortgage loans (GFRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were introduced to make payment to income (PTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) qualification conventions less restrictive. This paper analyzes the effect of GFRMs and ARMs on the demand for housing. Using a large national data set for the 1988 to 1989 period, we employ a two-stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a multinomial logit model estimates the probability of choosing an FRM, ARM or GFRM. Predicted values from the logit are used to construct user costs and estimate housing demand. Using the model estimates, we simulate demand under four different mortgage availability regimes: FRM, FRM and GFRM, FRM and ARM and all three. These simulations indicate that GFRMs, by relaxing LTV constraints, increase housing demand by approximately 6.2% relative to the FRM regime; the addition of ARMs, by relaxing both PTI and LTV constraints, raises demand by an additional 6%, for a total of 12.2% with inclusion of all alternatives.     

Modelling purchase patterns on the basis of incomplete and biased consumer purchase diary and UPC panel data

This study proposes a new approach for the analysis and prediction of product class and brand purchase patterns. The approach is designed to specifically consider data consisting of incomplete and biased purchase histories that may result from diary or UPC panel samples. Alternative approaches are developed that are illustrated on the basis of actual panel diary data and statistical estimation procedures to describe and predict actual product class and brand purchase patterns. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the potentially substantial errors that may result from the analysis of panel data in practice.     

An evaluation of Delphi

The literature concerning quantitative applications of the Delphi method is reviewed. No evidence was found to support the view that Delphi is more accurate than other judgment methods or that consensus in a Delphi is achieved by dissemination of information to all participants. Existing data suggest that consensus is achieved mainly by group pressure to conformity, mediated by the statistical group response that is fed back to all participants.     

THE IMPACT OF RURAL OUTMIGRATION ON REGION OF ORIGIN IN KOREA*

To assess the impact of rural outmigration on regions of origin, this paper borrows from international trade theory to develop a model of rural-to-urban migration. Borrowing from theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease, a model is developed for application to Korea. The model finds that rural outmigration can be detrimental to the rural sector when outmigration reduces farm profitability and triggers deterioration in the rural service sector. Farm profitability falls because of rising labor costs that cannot be passed on to consumers. The rural service sector falters when outmigration reduces market demand while raising input costs. County (kun) level Korean census data are used to test the model.     

Evaluating Expert Systems in a Financial Domain: A Study Demonstrating Issues in Case Selection,Validation Standards and Evaluator Bias

This article describes and generalizes a validation study of four commercially available personal financial planning expert systems and the rationale for the research methodology used. Our evaluation of these systems adds to the understanding of verification and validation issues related to case selection, validation standards and evaluator bias. The article describes the systems, their domain and the empirical method—field tests using hypothetical cases—and relates that method to the literature. Comparing same-task systems combines multiple system perspectives and multiple models. Our methodology did efficiently and effectively identify conflicting terminology, omissions and system weaknesses but was inadequate for comparing the complex plan recommendations. The results re-emphasize the importance of continual knowledge base updating, formal system testing and the need for external evaluation. The results also show the value of comparing multiple, same-task systems.     

Developing healthcare facilities for a changing environment

When approaching facility and real estate development, healthcare leaders should: Enhance clinical integration and ensure more patient-friendly facilities. Focus on a facility's business requirements and operating needs. Create a business plan that demonstrates how a project would help deliver better care at lower cost during a time of declining payment levels. Develop an approach that balances the needs of all stakeholders, including payers, staff, and patients.     

Frequent-user patients: reducing costs while making appropriate discharges

Homeless patients who lack access to the health resources they need to maintain their health on their own pose a challenge for hospitals: Premature discharge of such patients can result in their being readmitted to the hospital in a short time, leading to higher costs for the hospital. Hospitals can address this problem by developing clear, effective homeless discharge policies and by developing ongoing relationships with appropriate medical respite care providers. A hospital also can benefit from spearheading an initiative to develop a medical respite program, enlisting the assistance of other community stakeholders.     

The new ecological paradigm and responses to climate change in China

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Chinese-Mandarin version of the revised new ecological paradigm (NEP-R) scale. In a sample of 515 Mandarin-speaking Chinese nationals, we first assessed the factor structure and internal consistency of the NEP-R and assessed its validity by examining associations with global warming risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Respondents completed the NEP-R scale, together with measures of risk perception and mitigation behavior. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a two-factor solution, reflecting ecocentric and anthropocentric worldviews, best fit the data. Multi-group path analysis revealed that respondents with stronger ecocentric and weaker anthropocentric worldviews perceived more risks associated with global warming. In turn, respondents who perceived more risks reported engaging in more global warming mitigation behaviors. But importantly, the path between risk perceptions and behavior was significantly stronger for highly educated respondents than for less educated respondents, suggesting that education may represent an important strategy for bridging the gap between perceived risks about global warming and action.     

The relationship between brokers’ influence, strength of ties and NPD project outcomes in innovation-driven horizontal networks

This paper examines the impact of a broker's perceived use of power – position (i.e., coercive, reward and legitimate) and personal (i.e., expert, information and referent) – on strength of ties between network members and new product development (NPD) project outcomes. Our sample consists of 100 individuals drawn from 42 organizations that were involved in different innovation-driven horizontal networks. The results of structural equation modeling suggest that the perceived use of both personal power bases and position power bases by the broker are positively related to the strength of ties between members. Strength of ties, on the other hand, is positively related to NPD project outcomes of design performance and development time. Finally, results show that the relationships between a broker's use of different power bases and NPD project outcomes are fully mediated by the strength of ties between networks members. Implications for research, theory, and practice are discussed.     

A complete asymptotic series for the autocovariance function of a long memory process

An infinite-order asymptotic expansion is given for the autocovariance function of a general stationary long-memory process with memory parameter d∈(−1/2,1/2)$d\in (-1/2,1/2)$. The class of spectral densities considered includes as a special case the stationary and invertible ARFIMA(p,d,q$p,d,q$) model. The leading term of the expansion is of the order O(1/k^1−2d)$O(1/k^{1-2d})$, where k$k$ is the autocovariance order, consistent with the well known power law decay for such processes, and is shown to be accurate to an error of O(1/k^3−2d)$O(1/k^{3-2d})$. The derivation uses Erdélyi’s [Erdélyi, A., 1956. Asymptotic Expansions. Dover Publications, Inc, New York] expansion for Fourier-type integrals when there are critical points at the boundaries of the range of integration - here the frequencies {0,2π}$\{0,2\pi \}$. Numerical evaluations show that the expansion is accurate even for small k$k$ in cases where the autocovariance sequence decays monotonically, and in other cases for moderate to large k$k$. The approximations are easy to compute across a variety of parameter values and models.