Instructional Objectives and Economic Understanding

Much has been written in recent years about the use of instructional objectives, and particularly about the so-called behaviorally stated objectives. Too often, claims made for the usefulness of such objectives are not supported by research. In the study reported here, Dr. Phillips attempted to measure the impact of instructional objectives in a controlled experiment. Unfortunately, contaminating factors prevented the drawing of firm conclusions, but Phillips' work points the way for further study.     

Can the United States Transform Itself Into an Exporting Juggernaut?

The United States is capable of becoming an exporting juggernaut if it follows the right policies. This paper discusses what goals the United States should pursue and how it should go about reaching them. The goals should be ambitious—more ambitious than current policy suggests. Gross exports should increase to about 20 percent of GDP, whereas the current account deficit should decline to about 2 percent. The most important instruments to achieve these goals are liberalization of export controls, aggressive pursuit of trade agreements, and exchange rate correction—particularly with China. The paper gives estimates of what can be achieved by these instruments.     

Variations in housing satisfaction and health status in four lower socio-economic housing typologies in the eThekwini Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal

A study was done in the Durban Area, South Africa amongst residents (n?=?300) of four lower socio-economic housing typologies: Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) houses, informal settlements (IS), traditional rural houses (TR) and inner-city apartments (IC). Respondents living in IC were most satisfied with their dwellings, those living in RDP houses and in IS were the least satisfied. People living in the IC perceived their health best, while those living in IS perceived it as worst. Major reasons for dissatisfaction with housing were pest infestation in their dwelling in the past 12 months, inadequate toilet facilities, high temperature, unclean neighbourhood, poor ventilation and dust. Pest infestation and poor ventilation were mentioned most frequently by flat dwellers whilst RDP, IS and TR households complained about inadequate toilet facilities. For many people living in low socio-economic housing, both housing and service provision remain inadequate.     

A quarter of a century of Australian agricultural economics — some personal reflections

The late Fred Gruen (1921–1997) was asked to write these previously unpublished reflections for the twenty-eighth Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural Economics Society in 1984; they were circulated in working paper format as Gruen (1986). In this paper, Fred, who made the transition from agricultural to general economics later in his career, offers a modest perspective on his contributions to agricultural analysis and policy. The unifying theme in this outstandingly productive life was his focus on public policy issues whose resolution would impact importantly on the lives of many — that is, his intellectual curiosity was driven ultimately by his philanthropy.     

Application of Risk Theory to Interpretation of Stochastic Cash-Flow-Testing Results

Abstract

In this paper we consider the Sparre Andersen insurance risk model. Three cases are discussed: the ordinary renewal risk process, stationary renewal risk process, and s-delayed renewal risk process. In the first part of the paper we study the joint distribution of surplus immediately before and at ruin under the renewal insurance risk model. By constructing an exponential martingale, we obtain Lundberg-type upper bounds for the joint distribution. Consequently we obtain bounds for the distribution of the deficit at ruin and ruin probability. In the second part of the paper, we consider the special case of phase-type claims and rederive the closed-form expression for the distribution of the severity of ruin, obtained by Drekic et al. (2003, 2004). Finally, we present some numerical results to illustrate the tightness of the bounds obtained in this paper.     

Balancing Development Costs and Sales to Optimize the Development Time of Product Line Additions*

Development teams often use mental models to simplify development time decision making because a comprehensive empirical assessment of the trade‐offs across the metrics of development time, development costs, proficiency in market‐entry timing, and new product sales is simply not feasible. Surprisingly, these mental models have not been studied in prior research on the trade‐offs among the aforementioned metrics. These mental models are important to consider, however, because they define reality, specify what team members attend to, and guide their decision making. As such, these models influence how development teams make trade‐offs across the four metrics to try to optimize new product profitability. Teams with such an objective should manage to a development time that minimizes development costs and to a proficient market‐entry timing that maximizes new product sales. Yet many teams use mental models for development time decision making that focus either just on development costs or on proficiency in market‐entry timing. This survey‐based study uses data from 115 completed NPD projects, all product line additions from manufacturers in The Netherlands, to demonstrate that there is a cost to simplifying decision making. Making development time decisions without taking into account the contingency between development time and proficiency in market‐entry timing can be misleading, and using either a sales‐maximization or a cost‐minimization simplified decision‐making model may result in a cost penalty or a sales loss. The results from this study show that the development time that maximizes new product profitability is longer than the time that maximizes new product sales and is shorter than the development time that minimizes development costs. Furthermore, the results reveal that the cost penalty of sales maximization is smaller than the sales loss of development costs minimization. An important implication of the results is that, to determine the optimal development time, teams need to distinguish between cost and sales effects of development time reductions. To determine the relative impact of these effects this study also estimates the elasticities of development costs, new product sales, and new product profitability with regard to development time. Armed with this knowledge, development teams should be better equipped to make trade‐offs among the four metrics of development time, development costs, proficiency in market‐entry timing, and new product sales.     

Fairness reactions to personnel selection techniques in Singapore and the United States

This study investigates reactions to personnel selection techniques from the perspectives of working adults in the United States and Singapore, and provides a comparison of the two samples. Differences in the cultural values of the two countries are used to generate hypotheses. Working adults in Singapore (N = 158) and the United States (N = 108) rated the process favourability of eleven selection procedures and then indicated the bases for their reactions on seven procedural dimensions. Implications for selection in Singapore, the United States and in international contexts are discussed.