Imaginable surprise in global change science

Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more 'normal science' to phenomenological impediments (e.g., inherentunpredictability in some chaotic systems) to epistemological ignorance (e.g., ideological blocks to reducing ignorance). Based on the input of some two dozen scholars at an Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Workshop in 1994 *, we construct two tables in which participants offer many possible 'imaginable surprises' in the global change context, as well as their potential salience for creating unexpectedly high or low carbon dioxide emissions. Improving the anticipation of surprises is an interdisciplinary enterprise that should offer a sceptical welcoming of outlier ideas and methods.     

Tax contracts and elections

In this paper we examine the impact of tax contracts as a novel institution on elections, policies, and welfare. We consider a political game in which three parties compete to form the government and voters may behave strategically. Parties have policy preferences about the level of public-good provision and benefit from perks when in office. A government raises taxes for both purposes. We show that tax contracts yield moderate policies and lead to lower perks by avoiding the formation of grand coalitions in order to win government. Moreover, in polarized societies they unambiguously improve the welfare of the median voter.     

The Market Perception of Convertible Debt Versus Straight Debt: some Empirical Evidence from U.S. Firms and Non-U.S. Firms Listed in the U.S.

Accounting for convertible debt has long been a source of controversy in the accounting profession in the U.S. Current U.S. accounting rules require classifying convertible debt at date of issuance as "entirely debt" until conversion, despite numerous studies that assert that convertible debt is not "entirely debt", but is a blend of debt and equity. Convertible debt has taken on international interest because of the issuance of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 32, Financial Instruments; Disclosure and Presentation, which prescribes reporting separate debt and equity components for convertible debt. This study examines convertible debt issued by U.S. firms and non-U.S. firms listed in the U.S. using a levels approach. Specifically, convertible debt is compared to straight debt and contrary to ex ante expectation, convertible debt was not found to be perceived as being significantly different than straight debt for U.S. firms for any years and is statistically different in only two of the six years tested for non-U.S. firms. The validity of this study's findings is underscored by its research design, which compares convertible debt and straight debt issued by the same firms. The findings suggest that investors regard reported amounts of convertible debt similar to straight debt in their assessment of firm value.     

Does globalization restrict budgetary autonomy?

Does globalization restrict the leeway for national budgetary policy? With the help of cluster and discriminant analysis this study provides evidence on the basis of the experience of OECD countries since the 1970s. The results suggest that while globalization does indeed matter for government budgets, substantial room is left for individual national policies particularly with regard to public expenditure structure and public debt.     

Improving the business impact of foresight

Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a 'trend map' which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends - to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.     

International Differences in Student Achievement: An Economic Perspective

Abstract. International comparisons reveal large cross‐country differentials in average student performance. Although there is considerable public debate about these differences, their sources are hardly identified. Using school, teacher and student data from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), the present paper attempts to explain what causes between‐country gaps in mathematics test score distributions. Following a three‐pronged strategy of micro‐level and cross‐country regressions as well as bilateral country comparisons, we show how these gaps are explained by differences in school, teacher and student characteristics, or financial resources devoted to the school system. Institutional characteristics, such as competition between schools and the composition of the faculty can also help to understand international differences in student achievement.     

Don't Tax Me? Determinants of Individual Attitudes Toward Progressive Taxation

This contribution empirically analyzes the individual determinants of tax rate preferences. For that purpose, we use representative survey data from the German General Social Survey, which offers information on attitudes toward progressive, proportional and regressive taxation. On the basis of theoretical considerations, we explore the factors which, beyond an individual's financial interest, should drive preferences for progressive taxation. Our empirical results confirm that the narrow redistributive self‐interest does not offer the sole explanation of the heterogeneity in individual attitudes. Rather, we show that the choice of the favored tax rate is also driven by fairness considerations and beliefs on the role of effort for economic success.     

Investigating the formation of service supply chains

Existing research on service supply chains assumes the existence of an established and mature chain. Empirical or conceptual insights into service supply chain formation are therefore limited. The initial formation of a service supply chain, however, is suspected to determine its future performance. It is therefore of significant academic and managerial value to understand how and why service supply chains are formed, and how this process is coordinated. Drawing on an exploratory case study set in the management consulting industry, the inductive theory-building process underlying this study culminates in propositions and a conceptual model that provides a distinct understanding of service supply chain formation and the coordination mechanisms utilized within each stage. This study contributes to the service science, service supply chains, and service sourcing literatures; outlines managerial implications; and proposes future research directions.