Liquidity and Twin Crises

This paper proposes a simple analytical framework for understanding 'twin crises'– i.e. crises where a currency crisis and banking crisis occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The distinguishing feature of such crises is the spill‐over effects across financial institutions through collateral constraints, declines in market values of assets, currency mismatches on the balance sheet and the endogenous amplification of financial distress through asset sales. We explore the role of liquidity and the role of monetary policy in such crises. In particular, a central question is whether raising interest rates in the face of a twin crisis is the appropriate policy response. Raising interest rates has two countervailing effects. Holding the domestic currency becomes more attractive (other things being equal), but the value of the domestic banking system falls due to the fall in asset prices. When assets are marked to market, there is a potential for endogenously generated financial distress that leads to a collapse of asset prices, as well as the exchange rate. It is thus possible that raising interest rates can have the perverse effect of exacerbating both the currency crisis and the banking crisis.     

个人所得税扣除额标准质疑

个人所得税是调节收入分配的直接手段,对经济生活具有重要作用.新修订的《中华人民共和国个人所得税法》(以下简称个人所得税法)已于2006年1月1日正式施行.然而,此次修改中有关个人所得税扣除额的规定,无论在国内、国际实体法,还是程序法方面,都与相关的法律、法规相悖,也不符合现有经济理论的基本原则.鉴于我国现实国情,运用法经济学的研究方法,对我国个人所得税扣除额问题进行初步探讨,以便进一步完善我国个人所得税法.     

浅谈电子商务的新趋势——移动电子商务

随着互联网和移动通信技术的迅速发展,移动电子商务正逐渐成为一种新的商业运作模式.由于不受时空的限制,提供的服务多样化,使移动电子商务的应用范围越来越广.但现阶段,我国移动电子商务的发展还存在一些问题,如:移动通信的技术限制、内容及安全问题的制约等.针对这些问题,我们可以通过加强改进移动终端的设计、完善支付和安全认证体系等办法,以此促进我国移动电子商务的快速发展.     

高校微博话题的情感分析

微博是现在深受欢迎的信息交流平台,其中包括着大量的学生用户。作为对高校学生舆情监控的一个方面,通过数据挖掘的方法对微博话题进行情感分析,在高校掌控学生信息交流状况、预见话题演变趋势等工作上都能够起到很大的作用。     

服务业和制造业企业法人绩效比较

本文运用累积分布曲线分析经济普查数据发现,服务业和制造业企业法人相比,前者装备一个劳动力所需的资产量更多;前者的财务和经济效益比后者差;进入前者的投资门槛不比后者低。这些经验证据与大量理论和政策分析中的流行认识存在巨大反差。本文的经验发现提醒我们:在目前国情之下,大量资金投入服务业(尤其是生产性服务业和现代服务业)企业的机会成本,大于投入制造业企业的机会成本。所以,服务业发展应该分门别类、实事求是地推进。把发展服务业作为产业结构“升级”和经济增长方式转变重要途径的看法,也需要进一步深入分析。     

Investment and the soft budget constraint in China

This paper examines the incentive effects of the soft budget constraint on the investment behavior of firms in general and on the investment-cash flow sensitivity in particular. To this end, we develop a simple model of moral hazard that takes the soft budget constraint into account. Within this moral hazard environment, we show that investment is positively related to the amount of internal funds. We further show that the presence of the soft budget constraint deteriorates the moral hazard problem, thereby making the investment level less sensitive to the amount of internal funds. This is the case irrespective of whether the soft budget constraint renders the firm more or less liquidity constrained. To test the model's empirical implications, we employ data of China's listed companies for the period from 1997 to 2003. We use the share of state ownership as a proxy for the severity of the soft budget constraint. We find strong evidence that firms with larger shares of state ownership exhibit lower investment-cash flow sensitivities than firms with smaller shares of state ownership.     

Does high‐speed rail connection really promote local economy? Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Delta

High‐speed rail (HSR) has led to a transportation revolution in China. This paper uses the county‐level panel data of China’s Yangtze River Delta to investigate the effect of HSR connection on local economy. To address the issue of endogenous HSR route placement, we use a straight‐line strategy to construct potential HSR connection variables as instrumental variables of the actual HSR connection. Both the difference‐in‐differences and instrumental variable methods show that HSR connection impedes local economy, especially in peripheral regions. The impediment effect is channeled through population reallocation from peripheral to core areas and the restructuring of industries.     

从产品供应链管理走向信息化的价值网络管理:双案例研究

近年来产品供应链管理得到了广泛的关注,而产品供应链强调的是产品从供应商到分销商乃至最终客户的流程活动,基于此很多供应链信息技术的运用都是支持这一活动过程的,然而,随着经济全球化以及市场变化的加剧,使得企业越来越从产品供应链转向信息化为基础的价值网络。通过安吉物流以及苏宁电器的供应链信息化运作为研究对象,揭示了新时代价值网络管理的特征以及组织方式。指出价值网络管理的运行不仅是供需之间的产品经营和信息的协同,更是计划、知识、流程和投资行为的协同化,此外在组织方式上,则是以服务为中心、供需互动为手段、链式、辐射式、星座式创新为基础的综合管理体系。     

股权分置改革的经济学分析

对价支付基础、支付标准等是股权分置改革中的核心内容,本文认为对价支付是体现“风险共担”精神的对流通股股东的补偿,支付标准必须遵循理论定价与市场定价相结合原则,以确立一个合理的市场预期,维护中小投资者利益。     

我国社会保障基金的管理探析

我国人口老年化步伐的加快,使得对社会保障基金的需求也会越来越强烈。随着我国社会保障事业的发展,社会保障基金的规模也在不断的增长,在此情况下,对基金的管理尤其重要。文章就社会保障基金的管理和运营过程中出现的问题,如基金的挪用、监管的弱化、统筹层次低、缺乏有效的监督、信息披露不健全等等,并从人员的培训、立法的完善、提高统筹层次、加大日常管理等方面提出建议和对策。