广西国内旅游发展的区域差异研究

文章利用Theil指数、标准差及变异系数等方法分析2003-2011年广西各市及桂东、桂南、桂西、桂北、桂中等五个区域的国内旅游收入之间的差异,研究发现广西国内旅游区域发展差异逐年缩小,区域内的差异大于区域间的差异,区域内的差异是总差异的主要影响因素。针对目前广西国内旅游发展的差异分析结果,提出了相应的对策。     

Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.     

Local elections and consumption insurance

During our sample period from 1987 to 2002, Chinese villages completed the transition from government‐appointed village leaders to elected ones. This article examines if and how much democratic elections of the village leaders affected consumption insurance by Chinese village residents. Exploring a panel dataset of 1,400 households from this period, we find that consumption insurance is around 20 percent more complete with elected village leaders. Furthermore, local elections improve consumption insurance only for the poor and middle‐income farmers, but not for the rich. The results are robust when we allow for pretrending, potential endogeneity of elections, and higher measurement errors for rich residents. We also find that the effects on consumption insurance are stronger when closer to the upcoming election year and when the village committees consist largely of non‐Communist Party members. These findings suggest that the election effects on consumption insurance partly come from increasing accountability to local constituents.     

Modelling dependence using skew t copulas: Bayesian inference and applications

We construct a copula from the skew t distribution of Sahu et al. ( 2003 ). This copula can capture asymmetric and extreme dependence between variables, and is one of the few copulas that can do so and still be used in high dimensions effectively. However, it is difficult to estimate the copula model by maximum likelihood when the multivariate dimension is high, or when some or all of the marginal distributions are discrete‐valued, or when the parameters in the marginal distributions and copula are estimated jointly. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach that overcomes all these problems. The computations are undertaken using a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method which exploits the conditionally Gaussian representation of the skew t distribution. We employ the approach in two contemporary econometric studies. The first is the modelling of regional spot prices in the Australian electricity market. Here, we observe complex non‐Gaussian margins and nonlinear inter‐regional dependence. Accurate characterization of this dependence is important for the study of market integration and risk management purposes. The second is the modelling of ordinal exposure measures for 15 major websites. Dependence between websites is important when measuring the impact of multi‐site advertising campaigns. In both cases the skew t copula substantially outperforms symmetric elliptical copula alternatives, demonstrating that the skew t copula is a powerful modelling tool when coupled with Bayesian inference. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

盾构在湖底砂层中掘进姿态控制及易出现问题应对措施

分析盾构在苏州地铁一号线金鸡湖湖底砂层中掘进时姿态的控制,易出现的问题和风险,并针对可能出现的问题和风险提出采取的应对措施,对盾构顺利穿越湖底具有重要的意义。     

构建高职高专“三维动态”教学质量监控体系的研究与实践

在遵循教学管理的基本规律的基础上，通过对比研究高职高专教学质量监控体系内容，结合教学管理、教学监督、教学评价与激励3方面的教学质量监控实践与研究，运用管理理论，阐述了构建高职高专“三维动态式”教学质量监控体系的观点。     

在时光隧道中感受罗马

电影《罗马假日》,凯撒大帝,古斗兽场,古代废墟遗址,少女喷泉……是人们所知的罗马,当人们亲眼看见这些景象,不仅是视觉的巨大震撼强烈冲击,更是让人发挥出所有的想象力,频繁穿越几千年的时空,时常会感觉自己的想象力几近枯竭。     

孔子与苏格拉底处世观之比较

孔子和苏格拉底分别是中国和古希腊具有里程碑意义的历史巨人，他们的立身处世观点有着惊人的一致：矢志不渝、救国安邦，献身信念、无所畏惧，崇尚正义、行正义事，为人谦虚、为事负责。但由于二者所处的环境、文化传统不同，个人的生活经历也不尽一致，他们在对待出仕和财富观念上又因人而异。     

接口是计划生产的关键

本文通过笔者经历的几个普通案例,阐明了生产计划在计划生产中的重要作用和生产计划编制的严肃性、系统性问题,而接口又是计划生产中最值得关注的事项。     

小型FMCW近炸引信高度表

<正> 倾销与反倾销历来是国际贸易中的一对矛盾,尤其是西方国家为了争夺市场,打败竞争对手,总是利用种种手段,包括倾销手段来进行竞争。但是,为了对付别国的倾销,从20世纪初开始,西方一些国家又先后通过国内立法对倾销加以限制。然而,倾销与反倾销的斗争并未就此停止。第二次世界大战以后,一些国家通过关贸总协定这一国际性协定对倾销加以规范并予以限制。进入80年代以后,一方面由于西方国家的经济普遍不景气,复苏乏力,因此纷纷加强对进口的限制,反倾销就成为达到这一目的的最有力的工具之一;另一方面,一些发展中国家在扩大其对外贸易的同时,出于保护国内产业发展的需要,也制订了自己的反倾销法。这样,倾销与反倾销的斗争在更大的范围内展开了。本文试就我国反倾销立法的几个问题加以论述。