Robust linear static panel data models using ε-contamination

The paper develops a general Bayesian framework for robust linear static panel data models using$\epsilon$-contamination. A two-step approach is employed to derive the conditional type-II maximum likelihood (ML-II) posterior distribution of the coefficients and individual effects. The ML-II posterior means are weighted averages of the Bayes estimator under a base prior and the data-dependent empirical Bayes estimator. Two-stage and three stage hierarchy estimators are developed and their finite sample performance is investigated through a series of Monte Carlo experiments. These include standard random effects as well as Mundlak-type, Chamberlain-type and Hausman–Taylor-type models. The simulation results underscore the relatively good performance of the three-stage hierarchy estimator. Within a single theoretical framework, our Bayesian approach encompasses a variety of specifications while conventional methods require separate estimators for each case.     

The governance of risk management: The importance of directors’ independence and financial knowledge

We test the effects of the independence and financial knowledge of directors on risk management and firm value in the gold mining industry. Our original hand‐collected database on directors’ financial education, accounting background, and financial experience allows us to measure the effect of financial knowledge on risk management activities. We show that directors’ financial knowledge increases firm value through the risk management channel. This effect is strengthened by the independence of the directors on the board and on the audit committee. Extending the dimension of education, we show that, following unexpected shocks to gold prices, firms with financially educated directors are more effective in hedging than average firms in the industry. Firms that hedge more also attracts highly educated directors on their board and audit committee. As a policy implication, our results suggest adding the experience and education dimensions to the 2002 Sarbanes–Oxley Act and New York Stock Exchange requirements for better governance.     

Demographic Dividends in the ‘South’, Ageing ‘North’, and ‘South-South’ Trade Diversification

The absence of clear convergence in incomes per capita and welfare between the North and the South, even in the face of spectacular growth rates in GDP in the emerging South, might be due to a terms of trade deterioration resulting from an expansion of production in the South which depresses the product’s price on world markets. This may originate from a “technical catch up” and also from a “demographic dividend” in the South relative to an ageing North. This article illustrates that some South-South trade diversification might mitigate the terms of trade deterioration and increase welfare gains in the South. We use a multicountry overlapping-generation general equilibrium model to simulate the magnitude of the terms of trade effect due to a demographic dividend in Turkey, and show that some trade diversification away from EU toward the South is a welfare improving policy for Turkey.     

Labor Markets in Crisis: The Double Liability of Low-Wage Work During COVID-19

We adopt a novel identification strategy to examine the heterogeneous effects of Canada’s COVID-19 economic shutdown on hours worked across the earnings distribution. Early labor-market analyses found that workers in the bottom of the earnings distribution experienced a much larger reduction in hours worked than workers in the top of the earnings distribution. Our analysis reveals a double liability of low-wage work during Canada’s COVID-19 economic shutdown: while workers in every quintile experienced a large reduction in hours on average, significant increases in hours were only present among workers in the bottom quintile. Implications for crisis income supports are discussed.     

The human resource department's role and conditions that affect its development: Explanations from Austrian CEOs

Using a qualitative approach, this study fills a void in the literature on strategic HRM by analyzing Austrian CEOs' perceptions of the role of the HR department in their organizations, and the conditions that affect the development of a strategic role. The results suggest that even if CEOs have an overall positive evaluation of their HR departments and are willing to delegate responsibility for higher‐level decision‐making, to develop the HR department's role, CEOs must also feel they have the scope to do so. A framework for future research and practical implications for opportunities and constraints confronting HR managers are discussed. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Charities and the political support for estate taxation

We explain why wealthy people often favor estate taxation, while wealthless people oppose it. Wealthy people devote part of their estate to charities. Estate taxation with tax breaks for charities increases contributions to an otherwise underprovided public good.     

Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data

Using Consensus Forecast survey data on WTI oil price expectations for 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 to December 2008, we find that the rational expectation hypothesis is rejected and that none of the traditional extrapolative, regressive and adaptive processes fits the data by itself. We suggest a mixed expectation model defined as a linear combination of these traditional processes, which we interpret as the aggregation of individual mixing behavior and of heterogenous groups of agents using these simple processes. This approach is consistent with the economically rational expectations theory. We show that the target oil price included in the regressive component of this model depends on the long-run marginal cost of crude oil production and on short term macroeconomic fundamentals whose effects are subject to structural changes. For the two horizons, estimation results provide evidence for our mixed expectation model incorporating this break-dependent target price.     

How children view their travel behaviour: a case study from Flanders (Belgium)

Understanding the thoughts of contemporary children about travel and their opinions on different transport modes of transport may provide important answers for policy-makers on how to respond to current and future transport needs of children. Obviously, children do not act autonomously and their travel behaviours also strongly influence their parents’ travel behaviours. Therefore, a better understanding of children’s travel behaviours seems necessary.This paper reports the results of a large-scale, self-reporting survey (N = 2546) that was conducted to examine the concept and meaning of travel and travel behaviour of children aged between 10 and 13 years in Flanders. It was found that children are able to complete a travel diary on their own, that their travel patterns differ and that the most important part of travelling for them is the social aspect.     

The (1992) Bonus-Malus System in Tunisia: An Empirical Evaluation

The objective of this study is to assess empirically what impact introduction of the bonus‐malus system (BMS) has had on road safety in Tunisia. The results of the Tunisian experiment are of particular importance since, during the last decade, many European countries decided to eliminate their mandatory bonus‐malus scheme. These results indicate that the BMS reduced the probability of reported accidents for good risks but had no effect on bad risks. Moreover, the reform's overall effect on reported accident rates is not statistically significant, but the exit variable is positive in explaining the number of reported accidents. To avoid any potential selectivity bias, we also made a joint estimate of the reported accident and selection equations. The reform has a positive effect on the exit variable but still does not affect the accidents reported. This indicates that policyholders who switch companies are those attempting to skirt the imposed incentive effects of the new rating policy. Some of the control variables are statistically significant in explaining the number of reported accidents: the vehicle's horsepower, the policyholder's place of residence, and the coverages for which policyholders are underwritten.