Tests of some business cycle hypotheses under rational expectations

Zusammenfassung Tests einiger Konjunkturzyklus-Hypothesen bei rationalen Erwartungen. — Der Autor testet die Hypothese des realen Konjunkturzyklus sowie die neuklassische und die Keynesianische Konjunkturzyklus-Theorie mit Hilfe von Restriktionen der beobachtbaren reduzierten Form eines Zwei-Gleichungs-Modells für Produktion und Inflation. Die beobachtbare reduzierte Form definiert ein stabiles dynamisches Subsystem (Kointegrationssystem) mit stochastischen Trends, die herrühren von nominalen Variablen wie den L?hnen, der nominalen monet?ren Basis und den nominalen Staatsausgaben, die als schwach exogen angenommen werden. Die empirischen Ergebnisse liefern Belege gegen die Theorie des realen Konjunkturzyklus und die neuklassische Theorie der Konjunkturschwankungen.

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Résumé Tests des hypothèses des cycles conjoncturels aux expectatives rationnelles. — La théorie du cycle économique réel ainsi que les théories néo-classiques et keynésiennes sont soumises à un test au moyen des restrictions sur la forme réduite observable d’un modèle à deux équations pour l’output et l’inflation. Cette forme définit un sous-système stable et dynamique (système de cointégration) avec des tendances stochastiques venant des variables nominales comme des salaires monétaires, de la base nominale monétaire et des dépenses publics nominales qu’on suppose être faiblement exogènes. Les résultats empiriques donnent l’évidence contre le cycle économique réel et la théorie néoclassique.

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Resumen Tests de algunas hipótesis sobre la coyuntura bajo expectativas racionales. — En este trabajo se lleva a cabo un test de las teorias real, nueva clásica y keynesiana de la coyuntura imponiendo restricciones externas sobre la forma reducida observable de un modelo biecuacional del producto y de la inflation. La forma reducida observable define un subsistema dinámico estable (sistema de cointegración) con tendencias estocásticas derivadas de variables nominales como los salarios, la base monetaria y el gasto, que son consideradas variables débilmente exógenas. Los resultados empiricos contradicen a la teorias real y nueva clásica de la coyuntura.

     

Telecommunications in China

Recently, a ten-man delegation of the United States' IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) visited the People's Republic of China, at the invitation of the Chinese Electronics Society. It was the first formal visit arranged under the auspices of these two organizations. The delegation represented wide-ranging interests in telecommunications, computer technology and engineering education. This report reflects one delegation member's observations in the field of telecommunications.     

Endogenous fixprices and sticky price adjustment of risk-averse firms

A risk-averse price-setting firm which knows the quantity demanded at the status quo price but has imperfect information otherwise may choose not to change it although an otherwise identical risk-neutral firm would do so, provided the variance of the firm's subjective probability distribution over quantities demanded as a function of price displays a kink at the status quo. This is equivalent to risk aversion of order one. When no such endogenous fixprice exists, the size of price adjustment still tends to zero as risk aversion tends to infinity, and to any arbitrarily small menu cost there exists a degree of risk aversion so that the firm will not adjust.     

Ist die Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Rentenzugangsalters nur eine Rentenkürzung?

In der Diskussion um die Erh?hung des gesetzlichen Rentenzugangsalters wird behauptet, dass diese lediglich eine gro?e Rentenkürzung darstellt. Ist diese Aussage haltbar? Wie wirkt der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor, wenn sich das Rentenzugangsalter ?ndert? Welche Rolle spielt dabei die zukünftige Entwicklung der Bev?lkerung? Professor Dr. Eckart Bomsdorf, 62, lehrt und forscht an der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakult?t der Universit?t zu K?ln; Bernhard Babel, 28, Dipl.-Kaufmann, ist Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Seminar für Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistik der Universit?t zu K?ln.     

Finance Capital,Food Security Narratives and Australian Agricultural Land

The growing involvement of financial actors in food production has been one of the major recent transformations in the global agri‐food system. This ‘financialization’ of the agri‐food sector has been observed at various levels, from commodity speculation to direct investment in agricultural production, along with farmland itself. While there has been concerted effort to track new landownership and control associated with financial actors, especially in the Global South, there has been less impetus to examine the motives of financial actors' engagement in food production and the narratives upon which such engagement is based. This paper examines the way in which a productivist food (in)security discourse is employed by financial actors to legitimate their actions and to position themselves to win public approval. We analyse two cases of agri‐finance investors in the Australian context engaged in the discourse of food (in)security in relation to their agricultural investments – the Macquarie Group and Hassad Australia.     

Fast and frugal forecasting

Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and frugal heuristics that people use intuitively are able to make forecasts that are as good as or better than those of knowledge-intensive procedures. We draw from research on the adaptive toolbox and ecological rationality to demonstrate the power of using intuitive heuristics for forecasting in various domains including sport, business, and crime.     

The stability of German money demand: Tests of the cointegration relation

The Stability of German Money Demand: Tests of the Cointegration Relation. — In this study, two money demand functions are specified in single equation error correction as well as triangular error correction form involving real M1 (M3), real GNP, a short-and a long-term interest rate. Using various tests, it is shown that there may be a cointegration relation even after the German Monetary Union (GMU) was established in 1990. But the long-run coefficients of GNP and the interest rate probably have a structural break in 1973, when the Bundesbank changed its monetary regime, and in 1990, when the GMU was formed. The tests support weak exogeneity of real GNP and the interest rate.     

Development of policy in the ITU

As one of the oldest functional-purpose international organisations, the ITU is dedicated to voluntary agreements. These concern allocation of a scarce, internationally shared resourced, the radio frequency spectrum; standardisation of telecommunication services and systems; and joint planning. The organisation's policy making in pursuit of these objectives is outlined. Powers given to different organs are explained. Several cases are cited as illustrations of policy problems and their solutions. In summary, the rationale for the ITU's complex, federated structure is described.