Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management

This introduction highlights the diversity of national localities, research methods, case studies, and topics covered by the papers selected for inclusion in the special issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness and management.” It then provides a detailed summary of each study, emphasizing what the editors feel are the most important contributions. Concluding remarks include a call for future studies that are needed. An example is planning for ways of supporting and integrating citizen participation in all phases of crisis management, a topic that is missing from this collection.     

Zur Kritik der Dyopoltheorie von Krelle

Zusammenfassung Heertje hat schwerwiegende Einwände gegen die Dyopollösung von Krelle und damit unausgesprochen und im Fall Ott auch explizit gegen die Weiterentwicklungen erhoben. Bei der Analyse der Kritik von Heertje haben wir uns ausschließlich auf die Fragenkreise beschränkt, die aus der Modell-Struktur der Krelle-Lösung herleitbar und beantwortbar sind; die Kritik Heertjes erfährt so eine systemendogene Behandlung. Dabei zeigt sich, daß die Einwände Heertjes weitgehend widerlegbar sind. Indessen hat der Krelle-Ansatz in der bisherigen umfänglichen Diskussion jedoch auch Kritik erfahren, wiewohl Krelle selbst und andere⁷² in Teilbereichen den Einwänden begegnen konnten. Existent bleiben nach wie vor asymmetrische Züge im Preisbildungsprozeß, da auch kleine Schritte irgendwann ihr Ende und ihre Inzidenz finden: einer ist dann doch der Sklave⁷³. Nicht überzeugen können auch die Versuche, die Initiativen zum ersten Preiszug zu begründen. Korrekturbedürftig scheint auch die Hypothese der preispolitischen Abstinenz im Gleichgewichtsbereich: hier bieten die aus einem Lernprozeß geborenen Strategien der festen Preisrelation und der differenzierten Preiserhöhung einen realitätsnahen und analytisch faßbaren Erklärungsansatz. Insofern scheinen die Oligopoltheorien von Ott⁷⁴ und Heuß⁷⁵ in ihrer Prämissenwahl und Aussage überzeugender. Dies ist jedoch ein modell-exogener Einwand; die Konsistenz der Krelle-Lösung bleibt davon unberührt.     

National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany

Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.     

New China and communications development: A cultural perspective

The author analyzes Chinese approaches to telecommunications technology. He examines the political and technical goals of the leadership with regard to this field, and explains the ways in which telecommunications development fits into the Chinese culture.     

Transfer fee regulations in European football

We analyze the impact of three different transfer fee systems on payoffs, contract lengths, training and effort incentives in European football. The different regimes, being used until 1995 (“pre-Bosman”), currently in use (“Bosman”), and recently approved (“Monti”) differ with respect to the transfer fee an initial club is entitled to depending on whether a player has a valid contract or not. We show that the different systems differ only with respect to the contract length if the contract which maximizes the expected joint surplus of the initial club and the player is feasible under each system. Otherwise, regime P is strictly dominated by regime B in terms of expected social welfare. Regime M leads to higher effort but lower incentives to invest in training compared to system B.     

The Fourth Pillar? An assessment of the Situation of the Finnish Biotechnology

The success in constructing a flourishing information and telecommunication cluster has encouraged Finland to seek equal possibilities in other knowledge-intensive industrial branches. Presently, biotechnology is seen as an auspicious business area. Like in other parts of Europe, Finnish biotechnology concentrates mainly on pharmaceutical industries. More than 70 percent of the human resources of Finnish biotechnology industries is settled in this industrial branch.Despite large investments and financing, modern biotechnology industries are still a marginal industrial branch in the Finnish economy. Its turnover in 1999 was only one percent of the total GNP. The wide spectrum of Finnish higher education and the close relations of co-operation between universities and industries can open up promising prospects. Finland's technology-affirmative attitudinal climate works in the same direction. This progress can be delayed by a lack of highly skilled human resources, which is already a problem in the IT sector. The small size and minor experience in global markets have also limited the success of the Finnish firms.