Non-Linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric Versus Non-Parametric Methods

This paper investigates the relationship between outside air temperature and the residential demand for space heating energy. These non-linearities are investigated empirically using high frequency panel data for a sample of UK households, and both parametric and non-parametric methods for identifying non-linearities are examined. The econometric evidence finds support for important non-linearities across the range of observed temperatures and points to limitations in the use of parametric functional forms.     

FOOLING ALL OF THE PEOPLE

The public's expectations about government policy are a key influence on the economy and can be more important than the policy itself. By allowing the public to know that it is considering reflation outside the Medium Term Financial Strategy, the government is reducing the credibility of the MTFS. This Forecast Release draws on some of the latest developments in economic theory, in the field of 'time inconsistency', to argue that the early years of the MTFS suffered from continuing but incorrect expectations that the policy would be abandoned. To avoid repeating this mistake, the government should promptly concede the current calls for reflation if it is unable to resist them, although a preferable outcome for unemployment and inflation can be achieved by re-affirming the MTFS. A worse outcome than either of these is obtained if the government continues with the MTFS while leaving open the possibility of a sudden reflation.     

The Arduous Journey of Private Labels: Insights From the South African Market and Further Afield

This article presents an overview of private label brands (PLBs) by considering both the status quo and emergent trends in this sphere. The initial focus is profiling private labels in the country of South Africa, with developments from abroad then being juxtaposed against the local retail landscape. Global market trends are brought to the fore at the end of the article. PLB adoption in South Africa currently sits at a paltry 18% (little moved in the last 5 years), compared with a European average penetration rate of 30%. The reasons for this lackluster growth are varied, with a lack of retailer R&D at the root cause. Yet the conditions are right for rapid growth of this merchandise should household incomes continue to remain under pressure and should consumers fully appreciate the value proposition of such brands. Furthermore, it is expected that the global share of the market will reach 50% by 2025 (double that presently) with retailers abandoning B-brands and replacing these with their own substitute PLBs.     

Threat appeals in social marketing: death as a ‘special case’

Death is commonly used as a threat, both by fear-appeal researchers and by social marketing and health promotion practitioners (eg ‘Quit smoking or you'll die’). Fear (or threat) appeal researchers have frequently used death to arouse fear, and particularly in the ‘high’ fear condition. It is argued here that death is a ‘special case’ threat, and that the introduction of death in high fear conditions is a confounder in that death is a qualitatively different negative outcome from the non-death negative outcomes used in low fear conditions. The use of death in threat appeals requires attention in its own right for a number of reasons. First, death will occur eventually regardless of the message recipient's behaviour. Hence, messages that threaten death may arouse defensive responses in the target audience (eg ‘you've got to go sometime’), and unresolvable anxiety in the general population. Secondly, death can vary on a number of attributes (eg age at death, sudden versus prolonged, etc), and, while most threat appeals imply premature death, few studies have made this point explicit. Thirdly, the fear of death is multidimensional and some dimensions are more readily acknowledged as fearful than others. For example, a threat specifying the effect of one's death on loved ones might have more impact than a threat of death to oneself. Fourthly, people may fear death differently, or, for religious or other reasons, may not fear death at all. Furthermore, there may be age and gender differences in response to threat appeals using death. It is concluded that systematic research is required to determine whether and for whom death threats are effective. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications     

Taxes,Risk Aversion,and the Size of the Underground Economy

Non‐parametric regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the effective tax rate and the relative size of the underground economy, using New Zealand data. The underlying theoretical framework is established, and it suggests an ambiguous prediction regarding the sign of the relationship we are studying. However, our non‐parametric empirical analysis, which also allows for the non‐stationarity of the time‐series data, produces a positive and ‘S‐shaped’ relationship, and this supports earlier empirical studies that imposed such functional forms. The estimated model is used to simulate the effects of hypothetical tax changes on the size of the New Zealand underground economy, and to draw policy conclusions.     

Progress along the path: evolving issues in the measurement of genuine saving

More than 10 years since a practical linkage between sustainable development and a measure of national wealth—expanded to include natural and environmental resources—was first posited, the empirical estimation of adjusted net savings, dubbed ‘genuine’ saving, has evolved considerably. In this paper we take stock of both progress achieved and the challenges that remain. We begin by recalling the key points made in Pearce and Atkinson (1993, Ecol Econ 8, 103), which presented the first cross-country estimates of savings rates adjusted to reflect depletion and degradation of the environment. We then briefly summarise the evolution of the theoretical argument linking savings and sustainability. However, the main focus of this paper is an aspect that concerned David Pearce greatly, namely the evolution of the measurement of genuine savings. We identify and consider the empirical evidence with regard to two particular measurement issues: the valuation of exhaustible resources and environmental degradation. Common to the both issues are concerns about measuring changes in national wealth in real world economies.      

Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market

UK commentators have noted that the UK housing market may hinder labour market flexibility. The present paper uses UK household longitudinal data (BHPS) for the early 1990s, and estimates single and competing risk discrete time duration models of residence duration to investigate the impact of negative housing equity on residential moves. Strong evidence for an adverse impact on mobility is found, along with results to suggest that the home-owners do not move in response to changing labour market conditions. Negative equity in the early 1990s therefore exacerbated housing market related rigidities in the job matching process