Horizontal mergers and collusive behavior

In the Industrial Organization literature, it is generally felt that mergers hurt consumers; not only because of the increased industrial concentration they effect, but also because collusion becomes more likely. In this paper we show that, at least in one important case, this intuition is misguided. If a tacitly collusive agreement enforced by trigger strategies is not initially sustainable, mergers will tend to reduce the chance that it becomes sustainable in the future. This is so because the threat point implicit in the agreement becomes more favorable for outsiders.     

The importance of origin as a quality attribute for beef: results from a Scottish consumer survey

Perception of country of origin and purchasing habits for beef were examined for urban and rural Scottish consumers. Origin was identified as being as important as intrinsic quality cues of colour and leanness, with rural consumers giving more weight to origin than urban ones. Most consumers interpreted ‘Scotch Beef’ and ‘British Meat’ label logos as evidence that the beef animals were ‘born, raised and slaughtered in Scotland or Britain’ respectively. The logos were taken as indicators of quality and safety. Both urban and rural respondents had higher agreement levels with Scotch beef as a safer, higher quality and more expensive commodity than British meat. Rural consumers made more use of butcher shops for purchase, but both groups sought butcher beef for quality reasons and supermarket sources because of convenience.     

AN EXPLORATION INTO BANKRUPTCY DISCRIMINANT MODEL SENSITIVITY

Prediction has been a central theme in much of the accounting research and theory construction and verification over the past decade. Largely ignored in such studies has been consideration of the statistical properties of accounting measures, particularly as related to the effects of those properties on the signals from prediction models that use accounting measures as inputs. This study was designed to provide preliminary insight into the magnitude of the effects of this omission, and a bankruptcy prediction model was selected to facilitate the analysis. Results indicate that the linear discriminant model (as applied to prediction of failure) is sensitive to departures of inputdata distributions from multivariate normal.     

Economic impact of hypoglycemia among insulin-treated patients with diabetes

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the cost of hypoglycemic events among insulin-treated patients with diabetes and the potential cost savings to a hypothetical US health plan and employer of reducing hypoglycemic events with a device intervention.

Methods: A cost-calculator model was developed to estimate the direct costs of hypoglycemic events, accounting for diabetes type, age, and event severity. Model inputs were derived from published incidence rates of hypoglycemic events and direct medical costs. Assumed intervention efficacy was based on published studies of an emerging technology which yielded 72.2% (LGS Trial; ACTRN12610000024044) and 31.8% (ASPIRE Trial; NCT01497938) reductions in severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events, respectively. Model outcomes—including the number of severe (requiring medical assistance) and non-severe events, and direct/indirect medical costs (excluding intervention costs)—were evaluated over a 1-year period for a hypothetical health plan and employer perspectives.

Results: In a health plan with 10 million enrollees, patients without the intervention would have experienced 0.09 and 14.60 severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events per patient per year (PPPY), respectively (vs 0.02 severe and 9.96 non-severe events with the intervention). This translated into total direct medical cost savings of $45 million ($177 PPPY) for the health plan. For an employer with 100,000 employees, the intervention would have yielded additional savings of $492 PPPY in indirect costs.

Conclusion: Insulin-treated patients experience hypoglycemic events, which are associated with substantial direct and indirect medical costs. The cost savings of reducing hypoglycemic events need to be weighed against the costs of using diabetes device interventions.     

Rejoinder to Rosser,O'Donnell,and Carrión Álvarez and Ehnts on their criticisms of my ergodic/nonergodic formulation of Keynes's concept of an actuarial certain future vs. an uncertain future

This article provides my responses to recent criticisms of my argument associating Keynes’s concept of uncertainty with Keynes’s explicit statement that in our world of experience applying the “probability calculus” to historic data does not produce actuarial certain knowledge of future economic outcomes. Furthermore I have tried to explain, using Keynes’ own written statements how Keynes’s General Theory differs from old classical theory, new classical theory, Samuelson’s Keynesian Theory, and New Keynesian Theory.