Strategic Disclosure of Intermediate Research Results

We analyze the incentives to disclose intermediate research results during the course of a patent contest. Despite knowledge spillovers, the leading innovator sometimes discloses to signal commitment to the project, and so potentially inducing a rival's exit. Surprisingly, when development costs are low the leading innovator does not need to disclose to induce the same strategic deterrence effect as that which arises from disclosure. Taking into account wasteful duplication of R&D effort, a patent office can increase welfare by choosing the probability of granting a contested patent and so altering the proportion of rivals that the leading innovator deters.     

Computing,the bootstrap and economics

A major contention in this paper is that scientific models can be viewed as virtual realities, implemented, or rendered, by mathematical equations or by computer simulations. Their purpose is to help us understand the external reality that they model. In economics, particularly in econometrics, models make use of random elements, so as to provide quantitatively for phenomena that we cannot or do not wish to model explicitly. By varying the realizations of the random elements in a simulation, it is possible to study counterfactual outcomes, which are necessary for any discussion of causality. The bootstrap is virtual reality within an outer reality. The principle of the bootstrap is that, if its virtual reality mimics as closely as possible the reality that contains it, it can be used to study aspects of that outer reality. The idea of bootstrap iteration is explored, and a discrete model discussed that allows investigators to perform iteration to any desired level.     

Are User Perceptions of Chairman Addresses Managed through Syntactical Complexity and Rationalisation?

This study assesses whether or not the preparers of chairman addresses of large listed Australian firms manage user perceptions through the syntactical complexity of the provided information and/or the rationalisation of unwanted information. It applies an innovative assessment approach for the rationalisation of unwanted information. The study analyses the chairman addresses of 87 firms included in the Standard & Poor's ASX200 index using the Flesch readability formula, as well as the relative occurrence frequency of sentences with particular connotations within each analysed report. The findings of this study demonstrate that although the comprehension difficulty of chairman addresses is generally high, preparers do not attempt to manage user perceptions through syntactical complexity or rationalisation. Specifically, the study finds no evidence that chairman addresses that contain predominantly negative news are more difficult to comprehend than chairman addresses that contain predominantly positive news. Furthermore, it is concluded that preparers do not use rationalisations to manage user perceptions. Prior literature has thus far failed to investigate the rationalisation of information as a potential perception management tool and no other recent contribution to the literature has investigated the syntactical complexity of Australian chairman addresses that contain predominantly positive or negative news. This study aims to fill that gap.     

Event Risk Covenants and Shareholder Wealth: Ethical Implications of the "Poison Put" Provision in Bonds

This paper examines the ethical implications of "poison put" provisions included in bond offerings. A number of firms are using event-risk protections in bond offerings in an effort to attract investors back into the bond market. One of the most common event-risk protections is a "poison put" provision, which allows the bondholder to "put" the bond back to the firm at par or at a premium under certain specified conditions, such as a takeover effort or a downgrading of the bond by rating agencies. While such a provision is obviously of value to the bondholders, there is a secondary effect that is not as obvious. Using such a provision helps to insure that boards of directors must put the interests of all of the stakeholders ahead of any personal interests of the board members, thus protecting the stakeholders. The use of event-risk protections helps to deter takeovers, induce bidders to negotiate with management in any takeover efforts, and avoid two-tier takeover offers. As a result, the "poison put" provisions have a positive impact on share values while simultaneously protecting the investments of bondholders. Such an impact makes the use of "poison put" provisions in bonds an ethical use of management power.     

Simple Procedures for Testing Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models

This paper develops several simple separate (or non-nested) procedures for testing autoregressive versus moving average errors in regression models. These asymptotically valid tests are straightforward to calculate: after estimating both models by maximum likelihood methods, the procedure involves testing the significance of variables added to a linearized version of the null model, the added variables being the predictions, or the residuals from the specified alternative model, or the difference of the predictions of the two models. Some small sample evidence on the properties of the tests is presented, as is an empirical application on the Australian unexpected inflation rate series.
JEL Classification Numbers: C12, C22, C52, E31.     

Germany: ‘élite precaution’ alongside continued public opposition

Germany is the EU member state with the most difficult situation (besides Austria) for marketing genetically modified (GM) crops and food. At the same time, it shows the least administrative effort to respond to the reasons for this situation – public suspicion and protest. Regulators advocate specific precaution-related measures, including marketstage monitoring; these measures, however, do not relate to the primary demands of critics and opponents. The administration’s claim to prioritize scientific evidence over politics constructs the administration and the public as two separate worlds without real mediation. This conflicts with the ever-growing demands for public participation. Participation in a broader sense, however, is not dependent on formal opportunities. In this conflict, NGOs bring up issues of democracy, transparency and precaution through public mobilization. This strategy results in an anticipated consumer boycott and thereby a commercial blockage of GM products. These dynamics can be analysed as ‘reflexive modernization’, which implies greater public aversion to externally imposed risks. The politico-administrative system responds with a legalistic–scientistic approach in order to increase safety but without participatory measures to overcome predictive uncertainty and value conflicts. Environmental and consumer protest has led the technology providers to revise their political strategies in the biotechnology conflict. Thus, in Germany reflexive modernization takes place without reflexive politics.     

The influence of earnings per share on capital issues: some evidence from UK companies

This paper investigates the simple hypothesis that when companies issue more capital, they have a tendency to select the type of capital, all other things being equal, which results in the higher short-term earnings per share (eps). The methodology employs probit analysis to test the hypothesis that the form of issue selected was that which gave the higher eps after controlling for other factors such as leverage and industry classification. The results lead us to conclude that there is evidence in capital issues of functional fixation on eps.