Debt,diversification and earnings management

In this article we use panel-estimation techniques to calculate discretionary accruals (DAC) and to produce a better understanding of the nature of the relation between debt and earnings management. Consistent with the transparency hypothesis (which suggests that diversification increases the complexity of firms’ activities and reduces their transparency to outsiders), we find that for less-diversified (more transparent) firms, debt reduces positive discretionary accruals, whereas in relatively more-diversified (less transparent) firms the impact of debt becomes positive. Our paper shows that marginal increases in debt provide the incentives for managers to manipulate earnings, and diversification provides the needed context for this accounting practice to be possible. We have also found that only in the sub-sample of aggressive firms, those that manage discretionary accruals with enough magnitude to increase income, do lenders exert their control. Some firms, however, take advantage of diversification to avoid this control. Our findings are robust to several earnings-management measures and methodologies.     

Brazil's Experiment with Corporate Governance

The adoption of special listing segments by the São Paulo Stock Exchange in the year 2000 was an important step forward for the Brazilian equity market. Bovespa's introduction of the Novo Mercado and its Special Corporate Governance Levels 1 and 2 provided concrete, standardized certification of corporate commitments to higher governance standards that could be readily observed and verified by all market participants. What evidence do we have that this experiment in corporate governance has been a success? One indication is the performance of the Brazilian stock market itself, along with its ability to attract foreign investors. From 2002 to mid‐2008, the market capitalization of Bovespa companies increased by over 700%, while average daily volume grew almost tenfold. And as of June 2008, international investors represented 37% of total value, up from 26% in 2002. What's more, the growth in the three differentiated governance segments has been even more remarkable. Starting with 15 companies in 2001, the special governance segments had a total of 161 listings by early 2009. And by the end of 2008, the companies listed in the three differentiated segments accounted for more than 60% of Bovespa's total market capitalization and 73% of all trades. Perhaps even more telling, over 70% of the Brazilian IPOs issued between 2001 and 2008 were placed in the special governance segments. In this article, the authors summarize the findings of their study of the reaction of stock prices to the announcement by 31 Brazilian companies of their intent to list on one of the special governance exchanges. Their analysis showed that the companies choosing to list in these segments experienced an increase in both the value and the liquidity of their shares. In light of this evidence, such corporate decisions can be seen as functioning as publicly verifiable signals of commitment to greater transparency and investor protection. And the fact that the listing requirements of the special segments are stricter than those of Brazilian securities legislation means that stock exchanges—and the companies that choose to list on them— effectively have the option to initiate or lead investor protection reforms, as opposed to just complying with them. Thus, in countries where governance legislation is weak and the progress of reform is slow, stock markets can play a key role in helping companies differentiate themselves through exchange‐defined governance codes.     

Addendum: Gender discrimination and intergenerational transmission of preferences

The paper ‘Gender discrimination and intergenerationaltransmission of preferences’ was published in Oxford     

Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic releases on stock market volatility through a Poisson-Gaussian-GARCH process with time-varying jump intensity, which is allowed to respond to such information. The day of the announcement, per se, is found to have little impact on jump intensities. Employment releases are an exception. However, when macroeconomic surprises are considered, inflation shocks show persistent effects while monetary policy and employment shocks reveal only short-lived effects. Also, the jump intensity responds asymmetrically to macroeconomic shocks. Evidence on macroeconomic variables relevance in explaining jump dynamics and improving volatility forecasts on event days is provided.     

Extension services,product quality and yields: the case of grapes in Argentina

This article studies the impact of publicly subsidized agricultural extension services on yields and product quality. We use panel data from grape producers in Mendoza, Argentina to estimate the impacts of farmer trainings. We find a negative overall impact on yields and evidence of a positive average impact on the adoption of higher‐quality grape varieties. By analyzing the dynamic pattern of the estimated effects, we find evidence of a temporary decrease in yields suggesting the existence of an adjustment process following the introduction of higher‐quality grapes. The overall negative effect on yield is driven by a sharp drop in the year of participation. This fades after year one, and two to three years after treatment we observe increases in higher‐quality grape production. Findings reinforce the importance of temporal dimension of extension services.     

The behavioural consequences of self‐congruency in volunteers

The authors of this paper studied some aspects of volunteers from a marketing angle in order to analyse the differences in the self‐concept of volunteers collaborating with either charitable, or ecological organisations; to examine the differences between the images of charitable and ecological organisations; and to show the role of self‐congruency as an influence on of the type of organisation with which to collaborate. Some conclusions derived from this study can be used to attract volunteers through corporative social marketing actions. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Optimal exploration investments under price and geological‐technical uncertainty: a real options model

This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological‐technical uncertainty. After a successful several‐stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological‐technical uncertainty.
Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. Our model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological‐technical uncertainty into a one‐factor model.
We apply the model to a copper exploration prospect and find that a significant fraction of total project value is due to the operational, development and exploration options available to project managers.     

Peru in the 21st century : Challenges and possibilities

The Peruvian 21st century study, initially conceived in 1981 and still going on, is a large programme consisting of several interlinked projects. Simulations have been done on the future of 10 key national sectors, and these simulations have then been integrated to produce scenarios describing alternative feasible futures. At the same time, a group of desired scenarios has been constructed using personal interviews and a consultation process. There has been initial work on a third project examining key external factors affecting Peruvian development. Still to be undertaken are projects identifying specific development strategies and analysing the national planning process. Especially noteworthy products of the study are the user-friendly spreadsheet models, which make the feasible futures component of the study highly accessible to interested decision makers.     

Short‐term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline

Under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), European Union (EU) Member States commit themselves to avoid excessive deficits over 3% of GDP and to pursue the medium‐term objective of budgetary positions close to balance or in surplus. The SGP also provides regulation for the surveillance of budgetary positions. An analysis of tools for the surveillance of budgetary positions is the focus of this paper. In particular, it addresses two open issues in the empirical public finance literature which are crucial for monitoring fiscal policy discipline in the EU. First, the estimation of the structural component of the fiscal balance ratio. Second, the computation, when only annual fiscal data are available, of quarterly budget balance ratios, using relevant information from quarterly measured macroeconomic series. An econometric model that addresses both issues is presented and estimated. Additionally, this modelling framework allows us to answer questions such as: what is the safety margin that will prevent a particular country from reaching, with certain probability, a budget deficit that breaches the 3% upper bound? Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variance swaps,non-normality and macroeconomic and financial risks

This paper studies the determinants of the variance risk premium and discusses the hedging possibilities offered by variance swaps. We start by showing that the variance risk premium responds to changes in higher order moments of the distribution of market returns. But the uncertainty that determines the variance risk premium – the fear by investors to deviations from normality in returns – is also strongly related to a variety of macroeconomic and financial risks associated with default, employment growth, consumption growth, stock market and market illiquidity risks. We conclude that the variance risk premium reflects the market willingness to pay for hedging against these financial and macroeconomic sources of risk. An out-of-sample asset allocation exercise shows that the inclusion of the variance swap reduces the modified value-at-risk with respect to a portfolio holding exclusively the equity market portfolio.