The argument for more future-oriented planning

Planning, and practically all forms of decisionmaking, are concerned with the future. The future, unless we adopt deterministic philosophies, is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Through the processes of change it is likely to be different from the past; existing and past knowledge and experience are only a partial guide to decisionmaking. The inclusion of a future dimension based on careful thought about possible future development offers a new tool to the decisionmaker that should not be overlooked.     

Profitability and Investment: Anglo-German Comparisons

Why is Germany so much more successful a producer-nation than the UK? Dr Graham Hallett, of University Oollege, Cardiff, contrasts Britain's reliance on the inadequate state system of vocational training run by the Youth Training Scheme with West Germany's privately funded investment in training.     

Trading cost expectations: Evidence from S&P 500 index replacement stock announcements

This paper tests the effect on stock value of an expected change in future trading costs. The capitalized value of a reduction in trading costs is hypothesized to increase the stock value, a trading cost effect. Improved liquidity reduces trading costs. Inclusion as an S&P 500 Index replacement stock is an event hypothesized to increase liquidity. We use 114 observations between January 1, 1983 and October 12, 1989 of stocks added to the Index as replacements for stocks removed. The abnormal return of each stock is regressed against the ratio of the bidask spread to the price of the stock, the change in trading volume of the stock, and the open interest in the Index futures contracts at the close of the month prior to the replacement announcement. We find that the positive abnormal returns for replacement stocks are related to increased daily trading volume after inclusion in the Index. Further, the trading cost effect is proportional to percentage bid-ask spreads prior to inclusion. The trading cost effect increases as trading in derivatives of the Index increases. The volume and stock price changes after replacement are not transitory, indicating an improvement in liquidity. Three alternate hypotheses suggested in prior research to explain the abnormal returns for replacement stocks are tested. Testing each of the three models previously considered: price pressure, inelastic demand curves, and information, we find that none can be accepted with statistical confidence. The abnormal returns of Index replacement stocks are consistent with rational pricing of an anticipated reduction in future transaction costs. This anticipated reduction is capitalized in the value of the stock at the time of the replacement announcement. These results are consistent with a trading cost effect.     

The turnover of shop stewards*

The average turnover of shop stewards is a statistic with important implications for industrial relations. The Donovan Commission assumed a figure of 15 per cent in 1968 and the TUC one of 20 per cent in 1975. Recent evidence, reported in this research note, suggests that estimates are too low.     

Pricing behaviour in UK manufacturing and service industries

This paper reports the findings related to pricing behaviour of 1775 manufacturing and service firms. Its objectives were to examine the nature of pricing objectives at differing stages of market evolution and for companies of differing size and to examine the association between pricing objectives and performance. Princing objectives were found to vary with stages of market evolution and firm size. Both positive and negative relationships between pricing objectives and performance were revealed.     

Portfolio selection in thinly traded environments—a case study

This paper proposes a flexible technique for selecting portfolios in an environment which includes thinly traded shares. The proposal uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model with a thinly traded beta estimator to generate the expected return input. This technique has the advantage of being applicable when the opportunity set includes well-traded securities, as the beta estimator converges to the ordinary least squares beta for well traded shares. In addition, it allows portfolio estimation to be carried out under a range of expected market performance scenarios. An empirical study on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period 1974–85 indicates that the proposed method is superior to traditional techniques.