Structure,Clearinghouses and Symmetry

We introduce and justify a taxonomy for the structure of markets and minimal institutions which appear in constructing minimally complex trading structures to perform the functions of price formation, settlement and payments. Each structure is presented as a playable strategic market game and is examined for its efficiency, the number of degrees of freedom and the symmetry properties of the structure     

A theory of natural addiction

Economic theories of rational addiction aim to describe consumer behavior in the presence of habit-forming goods. We provide a biological foundation for this body of work by formally specifying conditions under which it is optimal to form a habit. We demonstrate the empirical validity of our thesis with an in-depth review and synthesis of the biomedical literature concerning the action of opiates in the mammalian brain and their effects on behavior. Our results lend credence to many of the unconventional behavioral assumptions employed by theories of rational addiction, including adjacent complementarity and the importance of cues, attention, and self-control in determining the behavior of addicts. We offer evidence for the special case of the opiates that “harmful” addiction is the manifestation of a mismatch between behavioral algorithms encoded in the human genome and the expanded menu of choices faced by consumers in the modern world.     

Comparison of Important Laws Governing the Macroeconomies of Taiwan and China

This is a comparative study of the important laws governing the macroeconomies of Taiwan and China. The laws are concerned with consumption, investment and fiscal and monetary policies of the government. Following similar studies on China, the present paper focuses on the case of Taiwan. Using annual data from 1961 to 2014 we find that the consumption function satisfies the permanent income hypothesis of Friedman and the investment function satisfies the accelerations principle as in the case of China. Money supply does not affect GDP but government expenditure has a positive effect on consumption and a negative effect on investment. These results are opposite to those obtained for China. Explanations of the differences are given.     

Price competition in the market for business telecommunications services

We estimate a two-step control-function model that relates incumbent prices for small-business telecommunications services to the number of facilities-based entrants, cost, demand, regulatory conditions, and a correction for endogenous market structure. Results show that the price effects from entry are understated in ordinary least squares regressions. When controlling for endogeneity, prices are negatively related to the number of entrants, indicating that markets without a competitive presence could exhibit market power. These findings should prove helpful to the Federal Communications Commission and other State regulators determining the conditions under which price and other forms of regulation may be relaxed.     

Note on a model of Chinese national income determination

A macroeconomic model of Chow (1985) explaining aggregate consumption by the permanent income hypothesis of Robert Hall and aggregate investment by the accelerations principle was found to fit Chinese annual data from 1952 to 1982 well. This note shows that the same model can successfully explain Chinese annual data from 1978 to 2006.     

Random coefficients models of arms imports

This paper uses a large panel of data with up to 19 time-series observations for almost 150 countries to estimate models of arms imports. Qualitative evidence suggests a non-linear relationship. As income and military expenditure grow, the propensity to import first rises and then falls as a domestic arms industry develops. We face the difficulty that there is virtually no data on domestic arms procurement or production capability. We respond to this difficulty by adopting a random coefficient approach in order to identify any systematic influences on import propensity, through the impact of military expenditure, size of the armed forces or income on unobserved domestic production capability. While a clear non-linear pattern is apparent in the cross-section relationship, once one allows for parameter heterogeneity such a pattern is not apparent in the time-series.     

Primary vs secondary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for the reduction of febrile neutropenia risk in patients receiving chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma: cost-effectiveness analyses

Objective:

Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of primary vs secondary prophylaxis (PP vs SP) with pegfilgrastim to reduce the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) in Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma (NHL) patients receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy from a US payer perspective.

Methods:

A Markov model was used to compare PP vs SP with pegfilgrastim in a cohort of patients receiving six cycles of cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin, and prednisone (CHOP) or CHOP plus rituximab (CHOP-R) chemotherapy. Model inputs, including efficacy of pegfilgrastim in reducing risk of FN and costs, were estimated from publicly available sources and peer-reviewed publications. Incremental cost-effectiveness was evaluated in terms of net cost per life-year saved (LYS), per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and per FN event avoided over a lifetime horizon. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed to assess sensitivity and robustness of results.

Results:

Lifetime costs for PP were $5000 greater than for SP; however, PP was associated with fewer FN events and more LYs and QALYs gained vs SP. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PP vs SP for CHOP were $13,400 per FN event avoided, $29,500 per QALY gained, and $25,800 per LYS. CHOP-R results were similar ($15,000 per FN event avoided, $33,000 per QALY gained, and $28,900 per LYS). Results were most sensitive to baseline FN risk, cost per FN episode, and odds ratio for reduced relative dose intensity due to prior FN event. PP was cost-effective vs SP in 85% of simulations at a $50,000 per QALY threshold.

Limitations:

In the absence of NHL-specific data, estimates for pegfilgrastim efficacy and relative risk reduction of FN were based on available data for neoadjuvant TAC in patients with breast cancer. Baseline risks of FN for CHOP and CHOP-R were assumed to be equivalent.

Conclusions:

PP with pegfilgrastim is cost-effective compared to SP with pegfilgrastim in NHL patients receiving CHOP or CHOP-R.     

Environmental Kuznets Curve: Conclusive Econometric Evidence for CO2

This paper begins with a statistical formulation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and discusses the major econometric problems raised in the literature in testing this hypothesis using panel data. A simple t‐test is then presented that avoids these econometric problems. The result from applying the t‐test confirms conclusively the EKC for CO₂ as formulated.     

Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation

Abstract .  This paper provides a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. We examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1985 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables. The results suggest that city house prices are only weakly correlated in the long run and that there is a disconnect between house prices and interest rates. City-specific variables such as union wage levels and the issuance of building permits tend to be positively related to existing city house prices. Surprisingly, there is mixed evidence with respect to standard measures of economic activity such as per capita GDP and interest rates.     

Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture

The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last 10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on long run economic growth and development.