Rezensionen

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Die Bedeutung der Lager für die Konjunktur

Summary Macroeconomic inventory theory is heavily dominated by the 30 year old accelerator buffer-stock-model, which has been improved only marginally. Its main hypothesis is that entrepreneurs plan a constant inventory-sales-ratio and react on unforeseen deviations by filling in a fixed part of this gap per period, without regarding either the size of the gap nor the degree of capacity utilisation. This study emphasises the distinction between inventories of purchased goods and inventories of self-produced goods. Physical inventories of purchased goods are planned together with the stock of outstanding orders for these goods (as Mack has shown earlier); inventories of selfproduced goods are planned not autononously but together with production and sales. In the long run one should expect a declining inventory sales ratio, but less than the square root formula would suggest if stochastic considerations are taken into account. In the short run for uncertainty theoretical-reasons the planned inventory sales ratio will swing procyclically with undesired countermovements at the turns.In general therefore inventory planning enforces cyclical developments. Growing inventories of finished goods in the boom are possible only if there is no shortage of finished goods but a shortage of means of production. This however is at least not contrary to our evidence.     

Budgetdefizit und Leistungsbilanzsaldo-Replik

Summary In a previous article I explained the gradual deterioration of Austria's current balance in the seventies and its pronounced deficit in 1976 and 1977 within the framework of the relative absorption approach by reference to capacity utilization rates that were high compared to those of other countries. The high utilization rates in turn were the consequence of an expansive economic policy, in particular of an expansive fiscal policy. Guger-Wörgötter, on the other hand, interpret the deficit in the Austrian current balance as the result of weak foreign demand and view the budget deficit as an attempt to compensate for insufficient aggregate demand; they conclude that full employment policies should be continued disregarding the economic development abroad. The present paper presents additional evidence that the deficit in the current balance is attributable to the fact that Austria's economic policy maintained a higher rate of capacity utilization than abroad. Such a policy serves a useful purpose and can be financed by foreign currency reserves only in the case of a cyclical demand deficiency; in the long run, however, it can be sustained at best only under a regime of flexible exchange rates (continuing devaluation).     

Vorwort der Schriftleitung

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