经济全球化与中国经济发展的长期优势

经济全球化对发展中国家是一把利弊参半的双刃剑,但对中国经济发展来说,全球化进程的利大于弊。人口众多曾是困扰中国经济发展的最大障碍,资源和市场的全球性重新配置正在把这一劣势转化为廉价劳动力成本优势和巨大市场潜力优势。经济全球化同时意味着经济运行规则的一体化,在中国经济体制市场化演进过程中,对外开放效应大于自我改革效应。     

事务所变更的信息披露制度比较与现状分析

近年来,我国上市公司更换会计师事务所的现象逐年增多,这一现象倍受人们的关注。随着我国证券市场审计的发展和不断成熟,完善事务变更的信息披露对投资者和监管部门的决策都具有重要意义。本文首先对中美事务所变更的信息披露制度进行对比,然后对2002年度若干样本公司有关信息披露情况的考察,分析了我国目前此项信息披露的现状与不足,同时还考察了信息披露的相关伴随特征;结论部分,提出了相应披露规范及监管建议。     

Why do some outside successions fare better than others? The role of outside CEOs' prior experience with board diversity

Research summary: We develop a theory to explain why new outside CEOs can better manage their relationship with the board if they previously served on boards that were more diverse than the focal board. We predict that a new outside CEO's prior experience with more diverse boards not only reduces the likelihood of post‐succession CEO turnover and director turnover, but also improves firm performance. Results from an analysis of 188 outside CEOs in a sample of Fortune 500 companies provide support for our theory. This study contributes to upper echelon theory and research by identifying outside CEOs' prior experience with board diversity as an important aspect of their background that influences a range of major organizational outcomes, including CEO turnover, director turnover, and firm performance. Managerial summary: It is challenging to be a new CEO who comes from outside of the organization. Our study examines why some new outside CEOs fare better than others. We suggest that a positive relationship with the board of directors is a key factor in a new outside CEO's success. A new outside CEO can better manage the relationship with the board if he or she has prior experience working with other demographically diverse boards. In contrast, when the focal board is more diverse than the other boards on which the new CEO previously served, the new CEO tends to struggle in managing his or her relationship with the board, experiencing a higher likelihood of turnover and delivering worse financial performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海峡西岸经济区知识溢出与区域经济增长——基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证研究

本文依据新经济地理理论--知识的空间溢出对区域经济增长具有重要影响,运用空间面板杜宾模型对海峡西岸经济区20地市的知识溢出效应与区域经济增长关系进行实证分析,研究表明,各地市之间存在显著的正向知识溢出及经济增长效应。建议通过加大资本投入、并对较落后地区采取适当倾斜的政策来缓解资本存量的负向区际效应;加大研发经费投入并积极推动科技成果的产业化;引导激发企业的科技创新活动;在吸引外资方面应制定适合本地区的优惠政策和竞争政策,以减少区际之间的盲目竞争及重复建设。     

Twin Booms: The Lead–Lag Relation Between Credit and Housing Booms

In this study, we examine the causal relation between credit (proxied by credit-to-GDP ratio) and house markets (proxied by house price index) using data of using thirty-six countries for the period 1996–2012. We find a bidirectional causal relation between the two markets using the whole sample. Then, we find that during the non–twin boom period, the results are the same as those using the whole sample. During the twin boom periods, the two markets are not linked using the boom definition of deviation from the trend, and the housing market leads the credit market using the boom definition of the growth rate exceeding a certain 15 percent.     

Executive cash compensation and tax aggressiveness of Chinese firms

We examine the influence of corporate compensation policies on firms’ tax aggressiveness in an emerging market where executive compensation is primarily in cash form. Based on a hand-collected dataset of 958 firm-year observations of Chinese listed firms for the 2006–2012 period, we find that firms paying higher executive cash compensation are associated with lower tax aggressiveness. This relationship also holds for the excess cash compensation measures which control for executive shareholding, firm profitability, size, growth opportunity, and board independence. We further document that mutual funds ownership pressure firms paying higher compensation to reduce their tax aggressiveness, suggesting adverse selection by mutual funds on firms exhibiting risky tax avoidance activities. High leverage offsets the negative link between cash compensation and tax aggressiveness, indicating a complementary effect between debt and tax avoidance, and, hence, suggesting that creditor monitoring is weak. These results are robust to the system-GMM estimation, which simultaneously account for the endogeneity of executive compensation, tax aggressiveness, ownership and control, leverage, and corporate governance. Our findings on Chinese firms have important policy implications for developing countries around the world with concentrated ownership structure, weak institutional environment, widespread corruption, ineffective rule of law, and ongoing significant social and political transformation.     

The role of credit ratings on capital structure and its speed of adjustment: an international study

Using an international dataset, we examine the role of issuers’ credit ratings in explaining corporate leverage and the speed with which firms adjust toward their optimal level of leverage. We find that, in countries with a more market-oriented financial system, the impact of credit ratings on firms’ capital structure is more significant and that firms with a poorer credit rating adjust more rapidly. Furthermore, our results show some striking differences in the speed of adjusting capital structure between firms rated as speculative and investment grade, with the former adjusting much more rapidly. As hypothesized, those differences are statistically significant only for firms based in a more market-oriented economy.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Do Outliers Matter?

This study examines the effect of outliers on causal relationship between financial development and economic growth using 48 countries from 1988 to 2014. The dynamic panel model of Levine, Loayza, and Beck (2000) is used to examine this issue. We propose a novel approach by combining the least square dummy variable correction method (LSDVC) to remove the estimates bias in the dynamic panel model and the least trimmed squares (LTS) to control outlier influence. The combination of these two methods is referred to as LSDVC + LTS. Our results show a counter-intuitive evidence that bank development negatively affects economic growth when the outlier influence is ignored. This counter-intuitive evidence holds even when the conventional winsorization method is used to control the outliers. However, bank development exhibits a positive influence on economic growth once the proposed approach LSDVC + LTS is adopted. Also, stock market development exhibits a positive effect on economic growth regardless of the outliers.     

Creating Financial Cycles in China and Interaction with Business Cycles on the Chinese Economy

This study creates a Chinese financial cycle index to examine the lead-and-lag relations between business and financial cycles. We examine the macroeconomic performance when these cycles are in boom, bust, and other combinations. We have four interesting results. First, financial cycles occur less frequently than business cycles. Second, the upturn phase of a financial cycle is significantly longer than the downturn phase. Third, gross domestic product growth rates are at their lowest when the two cycles are in troughs and the highest when they reach their peaks. We find similar results for employment, inflation, and consumption rates. Fourth, financial cycles lead business cycles but not vice versa. Hence, policymakers should consider the financial system before bailing out the real economy, which alone is insufficient for the recovery of the macro economy.     

沉默权的国际人权标准与国内现实

随着国际人权运动的深入发展,包括沉默权在内的旨在保障犯罪嫌疑人、被告人权利的制度,不断在各国刑事诉讼制度中得以确立。我国已签署了《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》,而公约的"反对强迫自证其罪"与我国刑事诉讼法所确立的犯罪嫌疑人、被告人"如实供述义务"是相悖的。针对沉默权人权标准国际化趋势,应对沉默权在我国的设置作出应然思考与实然分析。