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71.
Kevin Dowd PhD Andrew J. G. Cairns PhD David Blake PhD Guy D. Coughlan PhD Marwa Khalaf-Allah PhD 《North American actuarial journal : NAAJ》2013,17(2):334-356
Abstract The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger population is modeled independently, and the smaller population is modeled in terms of spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort effects between the larger and smaller populations depend on gravity or spread reversion parameters for the two effects. The larger the two gravity parameters, the more strongly the smaller population’s mortality rates move in line with those of the larger population in the long run. This is important where it is believed that the mortality rates between related populations should not diverge over time on grounds of biological reasonableness. The model is illustrated using an extension of the Age-Period-Cohort model and mortality rate data for English and Welsh males representing a large population and the Continuous Mortality Investigation assured male lives representing a smaller related population. 相似文献
72.
In survey research, acquiescence response style/set (ARS) and extreme response style/set (ERS) may distort the measurement of attitudes. How response bias is evoked is still subject of research. A key question is whether it may be evoked by external factors (e.g. test conditions or fatigue) or whether it could be the result of internal factors (e.g. personality or social characteristics). In the first part of this study we explore whether scale length—the manipulated test condition—influences the occurrence of ERS and/or ARS, by varying scale length from 5 till 11 categories. In pursuit of this we apply a latent class factor model that allows for diagnosing and correcting for ERS and ARS simultaneously. Results show that ERS occurs regardless of scale length. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence of ARS. In a second step we check whether ERS might reflect an internal personal style by (a) linking it to external measures of ERS, and by (b) correlating it with a personality profile and socio-demographic characteristics. Results show that ERS is reasonably stable over questionnaires and that it is associated with the selected personality profile and age. 相似文献
73.
Andrei L. Badescu Lothar Breuer Steve Drekic Guy Latouche 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(6):433-445
This paper presents an explicit characterization for the joint probability density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a general risk process, which includes the Sparre-Andersen risk model with phase-type inter-claim times and claim sizes. The model can also accommodate a Markovian arrival process which enables claim sizes to be correlated with the inter-claim times. The marginal density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin is specifically considered. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of this result. 相似文献
74.
Guy Kaplanski 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(8):1283-1298
Several empirical studies reveal that holidays generally create positive sentiment in the stock market, whereas negative events, such as wars or disasters, are accompanied by negative sentiment. However, what happens if a negative event occurs on a holiday? In such a case, we expect two conflicting sentiment effects, which may cancel one another out or, alternatively, one effect may dominate the other. The stock market in Israel provides a unique laboratory in which to test these two conflicting effects, as Israel faced a horrible war on the Yom Kippur holiday in 1973—a war whose influence is still strongly felt today. Indeed, we find two robust effects: A strong and significant positive holiday sentiment effect; and a negative war sentiment effect, which dominates the positive holiday effect. These results, which show how sentiment effects are created, are general and can easily be applied to other events and other markets when conflicting sentiment effects occur. 相似文献
75.
Guy Numa 《European Journal of the History of Economic Thought》2016,23(3):453-477
This paper analyses Dupuit's views on money, bimetallism, free banking and credit. By means of textual and contextual analysis, I argue that Dupuit endorsed the quantity theory based on the neutrality of money. For him, the value of money was determined by supply and demand. The only exception concerned the redistributive effects of gold between trading nations. Dupuit's approach to credit and his views on the issuance of banknotes were distinct from those of most French liberals. He did not consider credit to be capital, and he warned against the overissue of banknotes. 相似文献
76.
Guy Martial Takam‐Fongang Cyrille Bergaly Kamdem Gilles Quentin Kane 《Review of Development Economics》2019,23(1):172-188
This study uses both the endogenous switching regression and propensity score matching models to analyze the adoption and impact of improved maize varieties on maize yields in central Cameroon. The results show that (i) education level, agricultural training, proximity to an Institute of Agricultural Research for Development branch and farmers’ perceptions of yield and risk of improved maize varieties significantly affect the adoption of improved maize varieties and (ii) the adoption of improved maize varieties enhances maize yields. Therefore, policies designed to stimulate adoption of improved maize varieties should be promoted. Improvement of access to school and agricultural training may serve as good strategies for promoting the adoption of improved maize varieties in Cameroon. 相似文献
77.
Ahmed Marhfor Bouchra M'Zali Jean‐Claude Cosset Guy Charest 《Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences / Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l\u0027Administration》2013,30(3):173-188
We examine whether more analyst coverage translates into more informative stock prices and apply this to both developed and emerging markets. We measure price informativeness using the association between current stock returns and future earnings. We argue that more informative stock prices contain more information about future earnings. Results indicate that analysts' activities do not contribute to the impounding of future earnings information into current stock prices, in accordance with the view that analysts are outsiders who do not have full access to firm‐level information. We also find that analysts specialize according to industry and that “industry expertise” is limited to developed countries. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the explanation that analysts focus on gathering and mapping industry‐ and market‐level information (macroeconomic information) into stock prices. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
78.
Simon Guy 《International journal of urban and regional research》1998,22(2):264-282
This paper maps some of the social and commercial forces shaping the debate around ‘realistic’ or ‘appropriate’ levels of energy specification in the commercial office market. It discusses how the dynamics of the market, alternative lease arrangements, enhanced building management standards, technological innovation and shifts in cultural taste are all redefining contemporary office space and presenting new opportunities for environmental innovation. Drawing upon interviews with developers, investors, agents, occupiers and property researchers in Britain and France, the changing, often conflicting, priorities underpinning decisions about energy standards are explored. The paper explores possible ‘futures’ for office development processes in the United Kingdom. Highlighting the ebb and flow of the market, the paper points to the changing nature of tenant demand and current ‘opportunities’ for the development of alternative, more ‘realistic’ energy specification levels. Looking beyond the current property slump it examines the cultural and structural shifts likely to sustain any reformation of British real estate practices. In particular, the paper highlights contemporary debates around transformation of the institutional lease and legislative codification of energy and environmental standards. It is argued that this loose constellation of social forces promises a significant, new mutuality of interests between developers and occupiers which is cultivating ‘appropriate’ specification and procurement practices. Cet article retrace certaines des formes sociales et commerciales qui modèlent le débat sur les niveaux ‘réalistes’ ou ‘appropriés’ de spécification de l'énergie dans le marché des bureaux commerciaux. Il explique comment les dynamiques du marché, l'organisation alternative du bail, une meilleure gestion des immeubles, la nouveauté technologique et le changement des goûts culturels redéfinissent l'espace contemporain du bureau et présentent de nouvelles opportunités d'innovation de l'environnement. M'appuyant sur des entrevues avec des promoteurs, des agents, des occupants et des chercheurs sur les propriétés immobilières en Grande-Bretagne et en France, j'examine les priorités changeantes et souvent contradictoires qui supportent les décisions quant aux niveaux d'énergie. Cet article explore les ‘futurs’ possibles pour les processus de développement des bureaux au Royaume Uni. Soulignant le va et vient du marché, cet article démontre la nature changeante de la demande des locataires et les ‘opportunités’ actuelles quant au développement de niveaux alternatifs et plus ‘réalistes’ de spécification de l'énergie. En regardant par delà l'effrondement actuel du marché immobilier, il examine les mouvements culturels et structuraux qui pourraient supporter une réforme des pratiques des agents immobiliers britanniques. Cet article souligne en particulier les débats contemporains sur la transformation du bail institutionnel et la codification législative de la qualité de l'environnement et de l'énergie. Je soutiens que cette constellation décousue de forces sociales promet une nouvelle et significative mutualité d'intérêts entre les promoteurs et les occupants qui cultive les spécifications ‘appropriées’ et les pratiques d'acquisition. 相似文献
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