Peristomale Haut beurteilen

Das Ostomy Skin Tool - Ver?nderungen der peristomalen Haut früh zu erkennen und rechtzeitig entsprechende Ma?nahmen einzuleiten, geh?rt zu den Aufgaben einer Stomafachkraft. Ein validiertes Verfahren für die Beurteilung ist das Ostomy Skin Tool.     

Regional differentiation of coefficients of direct expenditures in input-output symmetric tables

The necessity to develop input-output regional tables on the basis of analysis of available regional technological coefficients and unit costs in physical and monetary terms is argued in this article.     

Overreaction to Fearsome Risks

When risks threaten, cognitive mechanisms bias people toward action or inaction. Fearsome risks are highly available. The availability bias tells us that this leads people to overestimate their frequency. Therefore, they also overreact to curtail the likelihood or consequences of such risks. More generally, fear can paralyze efforts to think clearly about risks. We draw on a range of environmental risks to show the following: (1) Fear leads us to neglect probability of occurrence; (2) As fearsome environmental risks are usually imposed by others (as externalities), indignation stirs excess reaction; (3) We often misperceive or miscalculate such risks. Two experiments demonstrate probability neglect when fearsome risks arise: (a) willingness-to-pay to eliminate the cancer risk from arsenic in water (described in vivid terms) did not vary despite a 10-fold variation in risk; (b) the willingness-to-accept price for a painful but non dangerous electric shock did not vary between a 1 and 100% chance. Possible explanations relate to the role of the amygdala in impairing cognitive brain function. Government and the law, both made by mortals and both responding to public pressures, similarly neglect probabilities for fearsome risks. Examples relating to shark attacks, Love Canal, alar and terrorism are discussed.     

Joint determination of biological encephalization,economic specialization

In this paper, we develop a paleoeconomic model of the co-evolution of economic specialization and encephalization—the common physiological measure of intelligence as reflected by brain mass relative to total body mass. Our economic analysis links ecological and social intelligence theories of increased encephalization in early hominins through a model in which both economic and ecological feedbacks jointly determined the evolutionary incentives. We focus on degrees of specialization affected by coordination costs with and without market exchange. Our results suggest encephalization would be a process characterized by diminishing returns to behavioral advances. In terms of the long-running debate in economics over whether specialization increases or decreases intelligence, our results suggest from an evolutionary perspective the answer depends on economic/social institutions and how these influence ecological interactions.     

Predictive Modeling in Long-Term Care Insurance

The accurate prediction of long-term care insurance (LTCI) mortality, lapse, and claim rates is essential when making informed pricing and risk management decisions. Unfortunately, academic literature on the subject is sparse and industry practice is limited by software and time constraints. In this article, we review current LTCI industry modeling methodology, which is typically Poisson regression with covariate banding/modification and stepwise variable selection. We test the claim that covariate banding improves predictive accuracy, examine the potential downfalls of stepwise selection, and contend that the assumptions required for Poisson regression are not appropriate for LTCI data. We propose several alternative models specifically tailored toward count responses with an excess of zeros and overdispersion. Using data from a large LTCI provider, we evaluate the predictive capacity of random forests and generalized linear and additive models with zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and Tweedie errors. These alternatives are compared to previously developed Poisson regression models.

Our study confirms that variable modification is unnecessary at best and automatic stepwise model selection is dangerous. After demonstrating severe overprediction of LTCI mortality and lapse rates under the Poisson assumption, we show that a Tweedie GLM enables much more accurate predictions. Our Tweedie regression models improve average predictive accuracy (measured by several prediction error statistics) over Poisson regression models by as much as four times for mortality rates and 17 times for lapse rates.     

Public market staging: The timing of capital infusions in newly public firms

We examine financing activities of newly public firms for evidence on capital staging in the public equity market. Staging (sequential financing) can increase issuance costs but can limit costs associated with overinvestment. We find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that staging is employed to help control the overinvestment problem in public firms. Initial public offering (IPO) proceeds, relative to external financing requirements, are smaller for firms with more intangible assets and more research and development (R&D)-intensive firms. Asset intangibility and R&D intensity are also both negatively related to the length of time from a firm's IPO to its first post-IPO capital infusion.