Inflation,financial development,and growth: A trilateral analysis

A large body of evidence links financial development to economic growth, yet the channels through which inflation affects this relationship and its stability have been less thoroughly explored. We take an econometric and graphical approach to examining these channels, and find that higher levels of financial development, combined with low-inflation, are related to higher rates of economic growth, especially in lower income countries, but that financial development loses much of its explanatory power in the presence of high-inflation. In particular, small increases in the price level seem able to wipe out relatively large growth effects of financial deepening when the annual rate of inflation lies between 4% and 19%, whereas the operation of the finance–growth link is less affected by inflation rates above this range. Growth is generally much lower, however, in such high-inflation settings where financial development is typically repressed.     

An investigation of long memory in various measures of stock market volatility, using wavelets and aggregate series

Using methods based on wavelets and aggregate series, long memory in the absolute daily returns, squared daily returns, and log squared daily returns of the S&P 500 Index are investigated. First, we estimate the long memory parameter in each series using a method based on the discrete wavelet transform. For each series, the variance method and the absolute value method based on aggregate series are then employed to investigate long memory. Our findings suggest that these methods provide evidence of long memory in the volatility of the S&P 500 Index. Our esteemed colleague, Robert DiSario, passed away on December 31, 2005.     

Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections

Empirical research of political business cycles (PBCs) may suffer from endogeneity bias when incumbent governments have discretion to call for an early election. Using an instrumental variable (IV) routine on data from Japan and the U.K., we find strong evidence to support the notion that election timing is a function of the economy rather than the macroeconomy being driven by elections as assumed in PBC. In single-equation regressions, no evidence of political cycles are found, but Hausman tests suggest elections are endogenous in our regressions. A monetary cycle in Japan and an inflation cycle in the U.K. are uncovered through IV estimation.     

Price dispersion across US districts of entry

Price dispersion of US imports are investigated across US districts of entry. Markups explain about 31% of price dispersion, while marginal costs of production explain about 69%; effects of trade costs, for which we have actual data, are almost none.     

Cultural values in Hong Kong's print advertising, 1946–96

This paper examines a content analysis of 580 of Hong Kong's print advertisements for the period from 1946 to 1996, which was conducted using Cheng and Schweitzer's (1996) framework of cultural values. Product categories were more determinant than the time variable in accounting for changes in cultural values. The cultural values present in advertising over time were fairly consistent and the study did not support a rapid shift from utilitarian values to symbolic values over the 50 years in question.     

The returns from rent-seeking: campaign contributions, firm subsidies and the Byrd Amendment

Abstract .  This is the first empirical study to examine Congressional support of a new law that distributes antidumping duties to protected firms. Because the law produces a transparent measure of how much each firm was rewarded for its efforts to secure the bill's passage, it provides researchers with a unique opportunity to study the link between the expected financial returns to firms, campaign contributions, and Congressional behaviour. Our results indicate that campaign contributions from beneficiaries increased the likelihood that lawmakers would sponsor the law, while contributions from the law's beneficiaries increased with the rewards they expected to receive.     

Patterns of alignment in alliance structure and innovation

Alliances are becoming an increasingly common strategy for product development despite the intrinsic tension between alliance logic and innovation logic. This paper investigates the development of alliance structures during the exploration phase of the innovation process. Based on a study of five service development alliances in the telecom industry, three patterns are identified by which the alliance structure and the innovation are brought into alignment. Such alignment seems to be a necessary condition for the transition into commercialization. The patterns identified are: (1) Learning about the innovation may trigger changes in the alliance structure; (2) Learning about the innovation may suggest changes in the alliance structure that are impossible to implement, however, thus triggering changes in the innovation; (3) Planning the future alliance structure may suggest changes in the innovation. Based on these patterns, some conclusions and implications are identified, for both theory and practice.     

Return and Maturity Relationships for Treasury Auctions: Evidence from Turkey

The relationship between the interest rate and the maturity of newly issued bonds provides information on the debt dynamics of an economy as well as on the sustainability of its debt. Such information is crucial especially for countries that have debt‐rollover concerns due to financial stress and/or macroeconomic instability. This study investigates the relationship between treasury auction maturity, which also dictates the debt maturity, and auction interest rates. When the Turkish treasury auction data from 1988 to 2004 are analysed, a reciprocal linkage between auction interest rates and maturities can be observed, especially for the 1995–2000 period, when there were chronic high inflation, high political uncertainty, high public deficits and unsuccessful attempts at stabilisation. This suggests that under an adverse shock, the Treasury decreases the auction maturity in order not to increase interest rates too much. A change in this reciprocal relationship is also reported for the post‐2001 era, which is characterised by decreasing inflation, higher political stability, lower public deficits and successful stabilisation attempts.     

Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate risk on interest rates within the uncovered interest rate parity condition for Turkey. When the interest rate is measured with the Treasury auction interest rate and the exchange rate risk is measured with the conditional variance of the exchange rate, then we found that there is a positive relation between the exchange rate risk and interest rate with the data from December 1986 to January 2001.     

International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation*

We provide international evidence on the issue of whether the optimizing IS equation is more stable than a backward‐looking alternative. This evidence consists of estimates of IS equations on quarterly data for the UK and Australia, both for the full sample of the last 40 years and for the period following major monetary policy shifts in 1979–80. Results suggest the parameters in the optimizing IS equations are more empirically stable than those of the backward‐looking alternative. The use of dynamic general equilibrium modelling in empirical work does deliver material benefits, in the form of equations more suitable for policy analysis.