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81.
The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings
expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant
time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly
earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly
earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with
drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced
by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels
of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models
conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage);
and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most
accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).
相似文献
Kenneth S. Lorek (Corresponding author)Email: |
G. Lee WillingerEmail: |
82.
83.
This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior
of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH
models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions.
First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999.
Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation.
Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks.
相似文献
Thomas K. LeeEmail: |
84.
Young‐A. Lee 《International Journal of Consumer Studies》2011,35(6):702-710
This research tested a conceptual model for proximity of clothing to self (PCS) in relation to age identity, self‐actualization, psychological well‐being, self‐assessed health, sex and chronological age among older adults, aged 65 and over, within the human ecological perspective. A mail survey was sent to a national random sample of 1700 older adults in the US resulting in 195 usable respondents in the final sample. The respondents returned two completed questionnaires, which were (1) Clothing: A Resource for Successful Aging? (to measure PCS, age identity and demographic variables) and (2) Personal Orientation Inventory (to measure self‐actualization). The results indicated that older adults' psychological well‐being, one component of successful ageing, was directly affected by their self‐assessed health, age identity and self‐actualization. PCS indirectly influenced individuals' psychological well‐being in a slightly negative way in later life. In sum, clothing may be used as a needs satisfier for different levels of needs or related more closely with needs in addition to self‐actualization needs for older adults. Further research should be conducted to explore relationships among PCS, different levels of human needs, clothing‐related variables and psychological well‐being for this age group. In practice, the effort should be given to teach the use of clothing (or other human‐built objects) as a tool or need satisfier to contribute to success in a person's later life by offering some educational or training programmes through local senior community centres or universities. 相似文献
85.
We model competition between content distributors (platforms) for content providers, and show that whether or not content is exclusive or “multihomes” depends crucially on whether or not content providers maintain control over their own pricing to consumers: if content providers sell their content outright and relinquish control, they will tend to be exclusive; on the other hand, if content providers maintain control and only “affiliate” with platforms, then multihoming is sustainable in equilibrium. We show that the outcome under affiliation depends on the tradeoff between platform rent extraction (which increases in exclusivity) and content rent extraction (which increases in multihoming), and demonstrate that the propensity for exclusivity can be increasing, decreasing, or even nonmonotonic in content quality. Finally, if a content provider internalizes the effect of its own price on platform demand, we prove that a platform that already has exclusive access to content may prefer to relinquish control over content pricing to the content provider in order to reduce price competition at the platform level. 相似文献
86.
The seasonal patterns observed on Monday stock returns are still unexplained by different asset pricing models. We attempt
to fill this gap in the finance literature by using the Fama-French (Journal of Financial Economics 33:3–56, 1993) risk factors to explain the Monday seasonal. The results in the study show that Monday returns are explained by risk factors
such as the market return, the size of the firms, and the book-to-market ratios of firms. 相似文献
87.
This study presents the nonlinear relationship that exists between financial development and economic growth. This study applies
the flexible nonlinear regression model of Hamilton (Econometrica 69(3):537–573, 2001) because it imposes no specification
restrictions. Two empirical results are obtained. First, an inverted U-shaped relation between banking sector development
and economic growth is identified. Namely, the two variables are positively linked before the turning point, but negatively
linked after it. Second, a positive relationship with asymmetric √-shape between stock market development and economic growth
is found. 相似文献
88.
We propose an alternative bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial (BZINB) regression model based on a copula. The empirical result shows that the proposed model performs better than the existing BZINB models in terms of the maximum log-likelihood and the AIC. 相似文献
89.
We study socio-ecological models for a fishing ground open to tourists. On Jeju Island, Korea, women traditional divers called “Haenyeo” harvest resources in a common fishing ground. To investigate the impact of introducing tourists on the benefit to the fishing association and the resource level, we examine two models that differ in the way the number of tourists is controlled. In the first model, the fishing association charges an entrance fee to tourists and the level of the fee is chosen to regulate tourist number. In the second, only a part of the fishing ground is made open to tourists, and the fraction of the ground open is chosen to control the tourist number. In both models, the fishing association seeks to maximize its total benefit. Analysis shows that the way the number of tourists increases with the availability of resources strongly influences the distribution of benefits among the fishing ground stakeholders. Finally, we discuss policy implications of our results and how local government can reduce the risk of introducing tourism. 相似文献
90.