Going Multinational: What are the Effects on Home‐Market Performance?

Abstract. This paper compares the home‐market performance of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) and national firms, both before and after switching from national to multinational activities. Regarding the former case, our results show that future multinationals outperform domestic firms. When assessing the ex post performance of multinationals, selectivity issues must be taken into account. Applying an endogenous treatment model, it turns out that after switching, both productivity and wage growth are higher at newly founded MNEs. While capital intensities increase compared with those of national firms, employment growth rates are negatively related to switching, suggesting that home and foreign employment are substitutes.     

Social security and saving — A critical note on the feldstein hypothesis

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird versucht, Feldsteins Hypothese, wonach die Sozialversicherung das Sparen dämpft, an Hand internationaler Querschnittdaten zu überprüfen. Ausgehend von einem Ansatz, den Feldstein aufbauend auf das Lebenszyklusmodell in den Jahren 1977 und 1980 entwickelte, wird versucht, die Validität der Ergebnisse in bezug auf Änderungen in den Variablendefinitionen, der Zeitperiode sowie der Sampleauswahl aufzuzeigen. Weiters wird der Einfluß von geringen Modellmodifikationen (Berücksichtigung der Arbeitslosenrate als Unsicherheits-bzw. Stimmungsindikator) sowie Änderungen der Schätzmethode (gewogene oder ungewogene Regression bzw. OLS oder TSLS) auf die Resultate untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die Feldstein-Hypothese keineswegs als ein empirisch allgemein gültiges Gesetz angesehen werden kann, sondern eher als zufällig zustandegekommen.     

A New Regulatory Paradigm for the Digital Sector in Europe

The new regulatory framework in the digital sector in Europe is likely to fall short of expectations. A fragmented digital market with insuffi cient incentives for investment is the probable outcome. European regulators should abandon their approach in favour of a new and more flexible set of ideas discussed in this paper.     

Active and Forced Choice for Overcoming Status Quo Bias: A Field Experiment on the Adoption of “No junk mail” Stickers in Berlin,Germany

Consumers around the world are burdened by large amounts of unaddressed junk mail. Attaching “No junk mail” stickers to mailboxes offers a simple solution for protecting against unwanted ads. Presumably, the use of such stickers can be increased if consumers deliberately decide either for or against receiving junk mail. This conjecture of status quo bias was tested in a field experiment run with more than 900 households in Berlin, Germany. In one treatment, stickers were put into mailboxes, facilitating active choice. In a second treatment, stickers were attached halfway onto the outsides of mailboxes, forcing consumers to either remove or fully attach them. It was found that roughly a fifth of the sample attached a sticker after treatment. With uptake of more than 21, as compared to 16%, the forced choice was more effective than the active choice treatment. The findings highlight the importance of green nudges and defaults for promoting pro-environmental behaviour. Implications for landlords of the presented interventions are discussed. The field of social norms is identified as a promising area for extending the scope of the present study.     

Incorporating sustainability criteria into credit risk management

Does a commercial debtor's economic, environmental and social performance in terms of sustainability affect its credit risk rating? Does adding criteria aimed at assessing a lender's environmental, social or sustainability practices provide added value to traditional financial rating criteria? Many analyses have reported that a correlation exists between companies' environmental and their financial performance. We checked out the assertion that it ‘pays to be sustainable’ by analyzing the role that criteria pertaining to sustainability and environmental orientation play in the commercial credit risk management process. Our results show that sustainability criteria can be used to predict the financial performance of a debtor and improve the predictive validity of the credit rating process. We conclude that the sustainability a firm demonstrates influences its creditworthiness as part of its financial performance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

A note on forecasting the prices of gold and silver: Asymmetric loss and forecast rationality

Given that the prices of gold and silver have witnessed large and substantial swings in recent years, policymakers and investors need readily available and reliable forecasts of the prices of these two precious metals. Survey data of forecasts of the prices of gold and silver provide a particularly rich data environment for policymakers and investors to study developments in the markets for gold and silver. Our research helps to develop a deeper understanding of the properties of survey data of the prices of gold and silver. We study the shape of forecasters’ loss function and the rationality of their forecasts. Assuming an asymmetric loss function weakens evidence against forecast rationality, but results depend on the empirical model being studied.     

Gibt es eine indirekte Wirkung von Wahlumfragen?

The question of whether or not the publication of election poll results has an effect on voting behaviour has been raised since the very beginning of survey research. Various hypotheses on the direction of such effects exist, and many studies attempted to test them. However, the most we know is that we lack support for the assumption of a general influence. Rather than looking at direct effects of published poll results on voting behaviour, this paper tries to measure their indirect effects. Using a combination of trend surveys and content analysis, we investigate the effect of survey results on the coverage of the media. We can show that changes in public opinion slightly precede changes in media coverage. We interpret this finding as a possibility of an indirect effect of published poll results, which should encourage further research on this phenomenon.