An Empirical Analysis of the Average Plant Start-Up Size in Turkish Manufacturing Industries

Many studies have found start-up size of a firm to be an important determinant of its subsequent performance and probability of survival. The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of average plant start-up size in 51 four-digit Turkish manufacturing industries for the period 1993?C1999. The results of the study suggest that while industry characteristics such as industry growth rate and capital intensity have a positive impact on the average plant start-up size, industrial concentration, import penetration, and the change in research and development expenditures are negatively associated with the same variable. In addition, the macroeconomic environment is also an important determinant of the choice of plant start-up size. Finally, we find evidence that may indicate ??following?? (herd) behavior in Turkish manufacturing industries.     

Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict

Economists’ faith that variable exchange rates benevolently equilibrate has been empirically disconfirmed. That faith is here tackled at its theoretical core with an exchange rate model that although ultra abstract, includes the undeniable fundamentals of market power and differential goals of central bankers and large-scale private players. It permits a game theoretic analysis under the assumption that all agents maximize their payoffs. The paper then relaxes the assumption of maximising agents, allowing for a more complex and thus realistic second version of the model that is interpretable within SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory of risk and uncertainty. In an experimental setting, this second version of the model points to: a) the inability of agents in central banks, governments and the private real and financial sectors to operate in maximising ways; b) destructive central bank conflict; and c) the widely discrepant outcomes arising from the dynamics of individual personality differences. The paper’s theoretical and empirical findings thus both point to the merits of a single world currency.     

Outsourcing of advanced business services in the Spanish economy: Explanation and estimation of the regional effects

The use of advanced business services has become an essential element for competitiveness in modern economies in which traditional competitive advantages based on prices, lower labour costs or the abundance of natural resources are being replaced by new advantages based on higher quality, greater knowledge or the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). Within this context certain services (computing, communications, human resources, engineering, consulting or management) are generally outsourced so as to exploit the advantages derived from specialisation and division of labour, as well as those of economies of scope and scale. However, some businesses, sectors or regions appear to have very different patterns of outsourcing advanced producer services. This paper presents an explanation of elements of business outsourcing decisions applied to the Spanish economy, applying discrete response models to the information obtained in a survey elaborated by the authors. The data thus obtained have enabled us to identify differences between the Spanish regions in the tendencies of businesses to use internal or external advanced services.     

The effect of the establishment of an organized exchange on weak form efficiency: the case of Istanbul Gold Exchange

Evidence is presented from IGE (the Istanbul Gold Exchange) that an institutional regulation such as the establishment of an organized exchange is an important component of informational efficiency that should not be disregarded in the process of financial liberlization.     

Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss

Based on the approach developed by Elliott et al. (2005), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price of oil tended to be larger than the loss they incurred when their forecast fell short of the price of oil. Accounting for the asymmetry of the loss function does not necessarily make forecasts look rational.