Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options

We analyze the effects of differences of opinion on the dynamicsof trading volume in stocks and options. We find that disagreementsabout the mean of the current- and next-period public informationlead to trading in stocks in the current period but have noeffect on options trading. Without options, we find that disagreementsabout the precision of all past and current public informationaffect trading in stocks in the current period. With options,only disagreements about the precisions of the next- and current-periodinformation affect stocks and options trading in the currentperiod. Our results suggest that options trading is concentratedaround information events that are likely to cause disagreementsamong investors, whereas trading in stocks may be diffusiveover many periods.     

Evaluating Government Bond Fund Performance with Stochastic Discount Factors

This article shows how to evaluate the performance of managedportfolios using stochastic discount factors (SDFs) from continuous-timeterm structure models. These models imply empirical factorsthat include time averages of the underlying state variables.The approach addresses a performance measurement bias, describedby Goetzmann, Ingersoll, and Ivkovic (2000) and Ferson and Khang(2002), arising because fund managers may trade within the returnmeasurement interval or hold positions in replicable options.The empirical factors contribute explanatory power in factormodel regressions and reduce model pricing errors. We illustratethe approach on US government bond funds during 1986–2000.     

Fluctuations in convex models of endogenous growth, II: Business cycle properties

Using ideas from the endogenous growth literature, we present a model of the endogenous determination of productivity growth based on individual worker decisions about human capital investment. We calibrate a version of the model to match long run growth facts from the US and study the business cycle properties of this model. This approach offers improvements along several dimensions over standard exogenous growth methodologies. Most importantly, our stochastic endogenous growth model generates much greater serial correlation in output growth and labor supply volatility relative to its real business cycle counterpart. We conclude that using the extra discipline of reproducing the trend productivity growth features of the data endogenously constitutes an important missing component from the real business cycle approach.     

THE ORGANIZATION AS POLITICAL ARENA

Politics and conflict sometimes capture an organization in whole or significant part, giving rise to a form we call the Political Arena. After discussing briefly the system of politics in organizations, particularly as a set of ‘political games’, we derive through a series of propositions four basic types of Political Arenas: the complete Political Arena (characterized by conflict that is intensive and pervasive), the confrontation (conflict that is intensive but contained), the shaky alliance (conflict that is moderate and contained), and the politicized organization (conflict that is moderate but pervasive). the interrelationships among these four, as well as the context of each, are then described in terms of a process model of life cycles of Political Arenas. A final section of the paper considers the functional roles of politics in organizations.     

Portfolio Performance Measurement: a No Arbitrage Bounds Approach

This paper presents a new method to examine the performance evaluation of mutual funds in incomplete markets. Based on the no arbitrage condition, we develop bounds on admissible performance measures. We suggest new ways of ranking mutual funds and provide a diagnostic instrument for evaluating the admissibility of candidate performance measures. Using a monthly sample of 320 equity funds, we show that admissible performance values can vary widely, supporting the casual observation that investors disagree on the evaluation of mutual funds. In particular, we cannot rule out that more than 80% of the mutual funds are given positive values by some investors. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate that potential inference errors embedded in existing parametric performance measures can be of important magnitude.     

The effects of Mongolia's booming mining industry on its agricultural sector: A test for Dutch disease

Dutch disease occurs when currency strengthening associated with a booming sector of an economy crowds out a lagging trade‐dependent sector. In this study, a Keynesian‐style model is specified to deduce hypotheses about how increased foreign direct investment (FDI) aimed at Mongolia's mining sector affects its agricultural sector. A key finding is that while econometric results suggest the increased FDI strengthened Mongolia's currency, its adverse effect on Mongolia's trade‐sensitive agricultural sector is not sufficiently strong to cause the sector to decline. Although Dutch disease was not detected, the posited mechanism clearly is important. Specifically, when currency strengthening is ignored the reduced‐form elasticity of agricultural value‐added with respect to FDI is 2.7 times larger than when currency strengthening is taken into account (0.103 vs. 0.038). Also, FDI‐induced currency strengthening causes the Keynesian multiplier to drop from 2.40 to 2.00 and the FDI multiplier to drop from 3.05 to 1.89.     

Forecasting employment : The role of forward-looking behaviour

Manufacturing output per head rose at an unprecedented rate in the UK in 1981/2, and conventional econometric relationships failed to forecast the associated falls in employment. In this paper we estimate manufacturing employment equations in which output expectations play a central role. These compare fabourably with alternative models, and are able to predict most of the large falls in employment over this period.