Comment Did PATCO really lead to the British miners’ strike?*

Here Herbert Northrup Duncan Campbell discuss an article published in this Journal (Vol 17 No 2 Summer 1986)-the author subsequently responds to their comments.     

The average number of events per time unit and its estimation

Let ζ _t be the number of events which will be observed in the time interval [0;t] and define as the average number of events per time unit if this limit exists. In the case of i.i.d. waiting-times between the events,E[ζ _t ] is the renewal function and it follows from well-known results of renewal theory thatA exists and is equal to 1/τ, if τ>0 is the expectation of the waiting-times. This holds true also when τ = ∞.A may be estimate by ζ _t /t or where is the mean of the firstn waiting-timesX ₁,X ₂, ...,X _n . Both estimators converage with probability 1 to 1/τ if theX _i are i.i.d.; but the expectation of may be infinite for alln and also if it is finite, is in general a positively biased estimator ofA. For a stationary renewal process, ζ _t /t is unbiased for eacht; if theX _i are i.i.d. with densityf(x), then ζ _t /t has this property only iff(x) is of the exponential type and only for this type the numbers of events in consecutive time intervals [0,t], [t, 2t], ... are i.i.d. random variables for arbitraryt > 0.     

Structure and Dynamics of Livestock Marketing in Rural Uganda: Constraints and Prospects for Research and Development

ABSTRACT

The projected global expansion in consumption of meat and other livestock products potentially offers sub-Saharan African small-holder farmers opportunities to escape from the poverty trap. A necessary condition for exploiting this potential is the establishment of marketing systems that provide farmers with reasonable incentives to participate in the market. In this study, the functioning of livestock markets in rural Uganda is analyzed based on a survey of 401 livestock keepers, complimented with focus group discussions with livestock traders and policy planners. The first part is dedicated to the empirical analysis of key organizational and institutional arrangements. Constraints along the marketing chain as well as potential institutional solutions are illuminated. The second part is dedicated to propositions of new areas where more work and new results are needed to improve the functioning of the livestock marketing chain. Empirical findings indicated the following institutional constraints: a poor market information system, lack of grades and standards, lack of trade finance, poor contract enforcement and dispute settlement, disorganized actors, high transaction risks, and poorly developed marketing infrastructure. The study recommends a structured approach to livestock marketing, market infrastructure development, and emphasis on arbitration systems as specific ways of improving the efficiency of livestock marketing in Uganda and other developing countries.     

Harm to Competition Under the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines

In August, 2010, the Antitrust Division and the Federal Trade Commission issued new Guidelines for assessing horizontal mergers under the antitrust laws. These Guidelines were long awaited not merely because of the lengthy interval between them and previous Guidelines but also because enforcement policy had drifted far from the standards articulated in the previous Guidelines. The 2010 Guidelines are distinctive manly for two things. One is briefer and less detailed treatment of market delineation. The other is an expanded set of theories of harm that justify preventing mergers or reversing mergers that have already occurred. The 2010 Guidelines reflect a growing belief that in markets where product differentiation is minimal competition tends to be robust and the structural presumptions stated in previous Guidelines were too harsh. By contrast, where product differentiation is substantial the Guidelines?? approach tended to define markets too broadly, overlooking significantly anticompetitive possibilities. Under the 2010 Guidelines unilateral effects analysis relevant markets can be very small, often limited to three or four firms, and excluding some obvious substitutes. Markets in merger analysis are not defined for their own sake, however, but rather to ascertain whether a particular alteration in market structure covered by the merger provisions will be likely to facilitate a price increase. The 2010 Guidelines address four substantive merger concerns: exclusion, restraints on innovation, unilateral effects, and coordinated effects. The Guidelines have a separate section on mergers limiting ??innovation and product variety,?? treated mainly in the category of unilateral effects. The 2010 Guidelines are more flexible than previous Guidelines and also more catholic about the types of harms that mergers might cause and the techniques that can be used to assess them. Older Guidelines were excessively wed to methodologies that were at the forefront of applied merger analysis when they were drafted, but that tended to make the Guidelines obsolete as new methodologies became available. Not only do methodologies change, they are also specific to the situation. Further, they tend to be well developed in the literature and accessible to experts consulted by those defending a merger as well as to the government economists who employ them. To be sure, there is a tradeoff between flexibility and guidance. Often we can have more of one only by giving up some of the other, and that tradeoff is clearly present in the 2010 Guidelines.     

Toward an Associative Model of Advertising Creativity

It has been assumed that the associative process plays a central and important role in advertising creativity. Yet, although this assumption has long been recognized, we know very little, other than intuitively, about the creative process itself. This paper represents a preliminary inquiry into this gap of advertising theory, formulating an associative model for the individual copywriter's creative process. More specifically, this study examines the relationship of associative ability, attitude, and creative ability, as conceptualized in the presented model. The findings suggest a direct and significant relationship among these three variables.