A review essay on The European Guilds

The Review of Austrian Economics - Ogilvie’s The European Guilds is a major contribution to economic history and institutional economics. This review essay surveys the main contributions of...     

A note on the “unique” business cycle in the Keynesian theory

In this paper, we explore the existence and “uniqueness” of a limit cycle in the Keynesian theory. In a model with the simplest (linear) Keynesian consumption function and the logistic investment function based upon the profit principle, we establish the existence of a periodic orbit (irrespective of the speed of quantity adjustment) and, with the help of the theory on generalized Liénard systems, verify the uniqueness of it for the case in which the speed of quantity adjustment is large enough.     

Evading the ‘Taint of Usury’: The usury prohibition as a barrier to entry

The development of capital markets in medieval Europe was shaped for centuries by the religious ban on lending money at interest. This paper examines how this prohibition developed as the outcome of strategic behavior by religious, commercial and political elites. A model is developed to analyze this hypothesis and to examine how the usury prohibition developed over time. It suggests that an important reason for the persistence of the ban was that it created a barrier to entry that enabled secular rulers, the Church, and a small number of merchant-bankers to earn monopoly rents.     

Personal Identification Through Pedestrians’ Behavior

This article focuses on a new approach for personal identification by exploring the features of pedestrian behavior. The recent progress of a motion capture sensor system enables personal identification using human behavioral data observed from the sensor. Kinect is a motion sensing input device developed by Microsoft for Xbox 360 and Xbox One. Personal identification using the Microsoft Kinect sensor (hereafter referred to as Kinect) is presented in this study. Kinect is used to estimate body sizes and the walking behaviors of pedestrians. Body sizes such as height and width, and walking behavior such as joint angles and stride lengths, for example, are used as explanatory variables for personal identification. An algorithm for the personal identification of pedestrians is defined by a traditional neural network and by a support vector machine. In the numerical experiments, pictures of body sizes and the walking behaviors are captured from fifteen examinees through Kinect. The walking direction of pedestrians was specified as 0°, 90°, 180°, and 225°, and then the accuracies were compared. The results indicate that identification accuracy was best when the walking direction was 180°. In addition, the accuracy of the vector machine was better than that of the neural network.     

PRINTEPS: An Integrated Intelligent Application Development Platform based on Stream Reasoning and ROS

Although AI and service robot applications have become very popular in many domains recently, many of them are specific applications and it is still difficult to develop integrated intelligent applications such as a robot teahouse and teaching assistant robots. To develop such integrated intelligent applications, we need integrated intelligent application platforms that have AI integration and agile process facilities. From the above background, we are currently developing PRactical INTElligent aPplicationS (PRINTEPS), which is a platform for developing integrated intelligent applications by combining only five types of modules, namely knowledge-based reasoning, spoken dialogue, image sensing, motion management, and machine learning. This paper proposes a workflow editor in PRINETPS based on a service-oriented architecture and a Robot Operating System that enables real-time parallel processing for multiple robots and sensors by integrating the five types of modules. The editor also supports not only developers but also domain experts in updating workflows frequently. This paper also proposes a novel method to integrate signals acquired through image sensing with knowledge (ontologies and business rules) using C-SPARQL and Semantic Web Rule Language. To evaluate PRINTEPS, we developed a robot teahouse application including customer reception and guidance to table services using a humanoid robot with PRINTEPS. Through this case study, we demonstrated that the behaviors of the robot can be modified by changing the workflow, the ontology, and the rules.     

Korean Currency Crisis and Regime Change:A Multivariate GARCH Model with Bayesian Approach

Regarding the question of when the Korean currency crisis actually started,several financial time series areexamined in a multivariate time series framework with the GeneralizedAutoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) process.The likelihood ratio (LR) test is used to find a structural break with aselection of breakpoints.The posterior probability function of a breakpoint is also derived.Individual time series data show the existence of several breaks since July1997.A statistically significant structural break using the multivariate GARCHmodelwas found prior to 8 November 1997, the date when the domestic currencystarted to massively devalue.     

Bayesian Estimation of ARMA-GARCH Model of Weekly Foreign Exchange Rates

Three Bayesian methods (Markov chain Monte Carlo, Laplace approximation and quadrature formula) are developed to estimate the parameters of the ARMA-GARCH model. The ARMA-GARCH model is applied to weekly foreign exchange rate data of five major currencies, and their stochastic volatilities are judged by the posterior probabilities of stationarity and other conditions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.