Fighting Capital Flight in Africa: Evidence from Bundling and Unbundling Governance

This study investigates the effect of governance on capital flight by bundling and unbundling governance. The empirical evidence is based on 37 African countries for the period 1996–2010 and the Generalised Method of Moments. Governance is bundled by principal component analysis, namely: (i) political governance from political stability and ‘voice and accountability’; (ii) economic governance from government effectiveness and regulation quality and (iii) institutional governance from corruption-control and the rule of law. The following findings are established. (i) Political stability and ‘voice and accountability’ reduce capital flight while the collective effect of political governance is not significant. (ii) Economic governance increases capital flight whereas the individual effects of regulation quality and government effectiveness are not significant. (iii) Corruption-control and institutional governance negatively affect capital flight whereas the impact of the rule of law is not significant. (iv) Taken together, Corruption-control is the most effective governance weapon in the fight against capital flight. (v) Priority in the Washington Consensus is more effective at fighting capital flight compared to the Beijing Model. Policy implications are discussed.     

The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements

This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the U.S.). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. All available studies concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU-27 would bear only a disproportionally small share of the total cost, not just because it is about five times larger than the UK in economic terms, but also for fundamental reasons such as greater market power of its enterprises. Other studies on different free trade arrangements confirm the general proposition that the smaller party has more to gain from eliminating trade barriers (and more to lose from imposing them). This implies that the EU will have a stronger negotiating position.     

Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a country’s current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a country’s current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The effects of purchases of foreign assets spill over to other countries in proportion to their degree of international financial integration. We also find that increases in US bond yields are associated with increases in foreign bond yields and in stock prices, as well as with depreciations of foreign currencies, but that all of these effects are smaller on days of US unconventional monetary policy announcements. We develop a theoretical model that is broadly consistent with our empirical results and that highlights the potential usefulness of domestic unconventional policies as responses to the effects of foreign policies of a similar type.     

Does measurement invariance hold for the official Mexican multidimensional poverty measure? A state-level analysis 2012

One of the main goals in poverty measurement is making comparisons of prevalence and severity across geographical units. This is attained by merely disaggregating the index in question. The underlying assumption is that comparisons across units are tenable, inasmuch as the same indicators are utilised for constructing the index. Nonetheless, in practice, this assumption is very rarely tested. From the statistical perspective, measurement invariance (MI) must hold for comparisons to be valid, and violations thereof indicate that a given poverty index measures different things across different countries, states, counties, etc. Consequently, differentials in severity and prevalence cannot be attributed exclusively to the underlying construct (i.e. poverty) but to factors not considered in the measure. This article tests whether MI holds for two indexes: the Mexican official multidimensional measure (MPM) and an adjusted multidimensional measure (MPM-A) that uses less severe thresholds. The analysis is conducted using a novel method called the ‘alignment method’. It uses these two measures and the method as an illustration of why it is vital to introduce MI tests into poverty measurement. The results suggest that partial strong MI holds for the official measure and MI is violated when the thresholds are adjusted. Partial strong MI guarantees making valid comparisons across the 32 states. Should the official measure requires to be updated with other thresholds, it would be necessary to adjust the threshold or drop the indicator for water deprivation.     

Free Trade versus Autarky under Asymmetric Cournot Oligopoly

The paper compares free trade with autarky in an asymmetric multi‐country world under Cournot competition with constant returns to scale and linear demand. We derive respective conditions under which free trade will hurt a country's consumers, benefit its firms, induce it to export, increase its output and raise its welfare. We show that these conditions are linked in a clear order, with one implying the next. We further demonstrate that free trade can reduce world total output and total consumer surplus as well as world welfare. Along the way, we correct several oversights in the literature.     

Foreign Acquisitions,Domestic Multinationals,and R&D

Our aim in this paper is to evaluate the causal effect of foreign acquisition on research and development (R&D) intensity in targeted domestic firms. We are able to distinguish domestic multinational enterprises (MNEs) and non‐MNEs, which allows us to investigate the fear that the change in ownership of domestic MNEs to foreign MNEs leads to a reduction in R&D activity in the country. Overall, our results give no support to the fears that foreign acquisition of domestic firms leads to a relocation of R&D activity in Swedish MNEs. Rather, in this paper, we find robust evidence that foreign acquisitions lead to increasing R&D intensity in acquired domestic MNEs and non‐MNEs.     

Unintended hedging in ambiguity experiments

We describe an ambiguity hedging problem in Ellsberg experiments, where combinations of individually ambiguous bets eliminate aggregate ambiguity, and which may yield incorrect classifications of ambiguity averse subjects. We propose a new classification consistent with this hedging possibility.     

OVERBIDDING AND HETEROGENEOUS BEHAVIOR IN CONTEST EXPERIMENTS: A COMMENT ON THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT

We revisit the meta-analysis of Sheremeta on overbidding in contest experiments and focus on the effect of endowment on overbidding. Sheremeta assumes, and finds evidence of, an increasing linear relationship between endowment and overbidding, Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) predicts an increasing concave relationship, while Baik and colleagues find an inverted U-shaped relationship in their analysis of a single experiment. We use the same data as in Sheremeta, but employ a different econometric model which leads to support for both QRE and the inverted U-shaped relationship. Following Baik and colleagues, we posit that the inverted-U relationship may be interpreted in terms of a wealth effect.     

Optimality results on orthogonal arrays plus <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> runs for <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis><Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis></Superscript> factorial experiments

The optimality of designs obtained by adding p runs to an orthogonal array is studied for experiments involving m factors each at s levels. The optimality criterion used here, is the Type 1 criterion due to Cheng (1978) which is an extension of Kiefer (1975) universal optimality criterion. Unlike what happens with orthogonal array plus one run designs, the behavior of designs obtained via augmentation of an orthogonal array by p runs depends on the particular runs added.