Tolerance for uncertainty and the growth of informationally opaque industries

Hofstede's [Hofstede, Geert H. 1980. Culture's consequences: international differences in work-related values. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.] cross-country psychological survey of IBM employees finds that some countries (societies) are systematically less tolerant of uncertainty, while uncertainty-tolerance is shown by some theoretic models to be essential to the growth of emerging sectors about which less is known. This paper first uses Durnev, Morck, and Yeung's [Durnev, Art, Morck, Randall, and Yeung, Bernard. 2004. Value-enhancing capital budgeting and firm-specific stock return variation. The Journal of Finance. 59(1): 65–105.] methodology to identify these informationally opaque industries. The hypothesis is then made that countries characterized by high uncertainty aversion (measured by Hofstede's indicator, and two other alternative indicators) will grow disproportionately slower in industrial sectors where information is less available. Using the Rajan and Zingales [Rajan, Raghuram G. and Zingales, Luigi. 1998. Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review. Vol. 88(3): 559–586.] “difference-in-differences” methodology, which is relatively free from the endogeneity problem, the study provides robust evidence of such an industrial growth pattern in 34 countries and 36 manufacturing industries. It also shows that national uncertainty aversion is not driven by underdevelopment of financial sector, inadaptability of civil law systems, lower level of economic or human capital development, labor market inflexibility, or any of many other institutional factors. The results remain robust when religious (Catholic vs. Protestant) composition is used as an instrumental variable for national uncertainty aversion. The international evidence presented helps explain why some countries are slower in embracing “new” (vs. traditional) industries.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

人民币在西藏地方取代藏币的历史考察

中华人民共和国货币主权的完整和货币制度的统一,是在西藏地方废止藏币、禁止外币和银元,并确立了人民币制时才全面而彻底实现的.建国以来,中央根据西藏地方的特殊性和复杂性,慎重稳妥地处理藏币问题,从允许藏币继续流通,不收不付,逐渐削弱,到改昌都地区由使用银元而为人民币与银元混合流通市场,暂缓西藏币制改革,直至收兑藏币,禁止外币和银元,确立人民币为西藏地方的本位货币.人民币取代藏币,加强了西藏地方与祖国内地的联系,为筹备成立西藏自治区提供了一定的经济社会基础.     

关于高校财务管理的几点思考

伴随着全面改革的深入,高校财务管理工作应进行如下改革:一是打通内外资金渠道,实行综合财务管理;二是建立健全硬化内部财务管理制度来规划学校的经济活动;三是转变会计职能,拓宽会计领域;四是充分挖掘内部潜力,提高现有资金的使用效益.如此才能满足高等学校教育体制改革的需要.     

THE HOLIDAY EFFECT IN STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM THE OTC MARKET

The patterns of daily returns in over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are examined to determine if a holiday effect exists in the OTC market. For the sample period of 1973–1989, test results provide evidence of unusually high returns on pre-holiday trading days and unusually low returns on post-holiday trading days in the OTC market. Additional analyses indicate that other documented calendar anomalies do not cause the pre-holiday effect, but the day-of-the-week effect apparently drives the post-holiday effect.     

哲学课教学改革之探究

哲学课作为一门公共课，如何让学生学有兴趣，学有所得是这门课程是否具有生命力的关键所在。本文从教学实践出发，探讨了哲学课教学改革的几种形式——想像式教学、辩论式教学、理解式教学、实践式教学，以及考核方式的多样化，指出只要采取灵活多样的教学手段和内容，完全可以让学生感受到哲学的魅力。     

迎接私营经济发展的新阶段——学习十六大报告体会之一

<正> 党的十六大在经济理论和经济发展方针方面的最大贡献有两个:一是建设全面小康社会,二是进一步发展非公有制经济,二者互为条件,相互促进,共同服从于我们党发展经济的根本目的——“提高全国人民的生活水平和质量”。用这样两个经济理论和方针来指导实践,必将带来社会主义市场经济体制的完善。     

"无过错责任"不是"猛虎下山"——对《最高人民法院关于审理触电人身损害赔偿案件若干问题的解释》的理解

“无过错责任”又称“无过失责任”、“客观责任”、“危险责任”、“严格责任”或“特殊侵权民事责任”，是指没有过错造成他人损害的，依法应当由与造成损害原因有关的人承担民事责任的确认责任准则。执行这一原则，主要不是根据责任人的过错，而是基于损害的客观存在，根据行为人的活动及所管理的人或物的危险性质与所造成损害后果的因果关系，它是一种不完全具备一般侵权民事责任的成立要件，也不一定直接由实施违法行为人承担主要责任的法律责任承担方式。     

德国如何成功举办世界杯足球赛

2006年德国世界杯足球赛是2008年北京奥运会之前全球最大的体育赛事。北京市发改委奥运经济高级顾问黄为专程前往德国，为北京奥运求取真经。[编者按]     

构建社会主义和谐社会与公共关系

构建社会主义和谐社会,是我国全面建设小康社会、开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的一项重大任务,适应了我国改革发展进入关键时期的客观要求,体现了广大人民群众的根本利益和共同愿望。公共关系作为组织内求团结、外求合作的传播沟通艺术,正是一种追求组织与组织,组织与社会和谐共存、和谐交往、和谐发展的社会活动。文章就公共关系的历史、本质、职能等方面谈公共关系在构建和谐社会中的作用。