Discounting and welfare evaluation of policies

We start with the premise that if policy discounting is to have any welfare relevance, one has to accept it being a derivative of a social welfare function (SWF). We show that if that derivative is to have a net present value (NPV) form, then the baseline allocation must be stationary. In addition, we show that at a stationary baseline in an overlapping generations growth economy, the intergenerationally fair discount rate equals the growth rate of per‐capita consumption, which is, roughly, 2% for the United States. This differs from the interest rate, even in the golden rule equilibrium, unless population growth is null. The last result is based on the main theorem in Mertens and Rubinchik (2012) and is demonstrated for a policy space that might naturally arise in applications.     

独立审计:第三方实施及其失败

现有的独立审计合约研究大部分是在单一委托人、多代理人框架下在股东、管理当局以及审计人员三者之间选取两者研究他们之间的合约关系,不能反映审计合约的全貌。本文认为独立审计产生的原因在于企业利益相关各方之间的审计合约自我实施不具效率,独立审计作为第三方实施机制是一个帕累托改进,审计的独立性可以归结为第三方实施的中性,但实践中的独立审计不是由政府提供,而是通过市场机制交由会计师事务所提供,市场机制不健全加上政府监管的缺失导致了第三方实施的失败。     

民主、主观经济评价与腐败感知——基于亚洲、非洲与拉美舆情表合并数据的多层分析

文章所聚焦的问题是:一个国家或地区的民主程度会对个体的腐败感知产生何种影响?文章对亚洲、非洲和拉美三个舆情表的调查数据进行了合并,整合出一个包括50个国家在内的跨层次数据。在此基础上使用多层分析法,研究发现民主对于腐败感知的影响具有双重作用:在直接效应上,民主程度越高的国家,民众腐败感知的平均水平越高;但在调节效应上,民主作为一种宏观制度环境,会增强自我经济评价对腐败感知的负向影响。研究还利用实证数据证明了个体的政治态度在一定程度上是由个体所处的宏观制度背景所塑造的,一个国家的民主程度对于个体的腐败感知来说可以同时展现其"严厉的"和"慈祥的"一面。     

创业网络的概念发展——一个系统的三维模型

创业网络研究已经取得了较为丰富的成果,但是对于创业网络概念本身还缺乏系统化的概念框架。本文对创业网络概念进行了界定,并且从关系主体、关系属性、关系产出三个维度对创业网络概念内涵进行了探讨,基于上述分析,本文提出了一个系统的创业网络三维概念模型。     

Cue usage in financial statement fraud risk assessments: effects of technical knowledge and decision aid use

This paper investigates the effects of technical knowledge and decision aid use on financial statement fraud risk assessments made by directors and students. More extreme fraud risk assessments are made when participants identify and process larger (smaller) numbers of diagnostic (non‐diagnostic) factors, with technical knowledge driving diagnostic factor identification. Significant decision aid‐technical knowledge effects are also found; decision aid use has a detrimental effect on high‐knowledge directors while improving performance in inexperienced, low‐knowledge students. These results suggest that although decision aids can afford gains in performance in inexperienced users, they can have unintended and/or paradoxical behavioural effects on experienced users.     

基于灰色理论的中国人口空间分布模式预测

运用灰色理论对我国各个省市未来人口总量进行预测,并应用GIS的空间自相关理论和方法对未来人口空间分布模式做出预测。研究认为,从2005年到2020年中:北京、天津、江苏、上海、浙江等省市始终保持与周围省市人口密度的高高关联关系,围绕这些省市的省份区域形成了相对人口聚集区域,西部许多省份及东北几省与周围的省份人口密度是维持着低低关联模式。广东省始终保持与周围省市人口密度的高高关联关系,即本省只是单独形成了一个聚集点。2014年是我国人口空间分布格局变动较大的时期。