The Sustainability of Italian Public Debt and Deficit

In this paper, we analyse the sustainability of Italian public debt using a unique database, reconstructed by Forte (2011), which covers the years 1862–2013. The study focuses on empirical tests for the sustainability and solvency of Italian public finance. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that public debt and deficit variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1). However, some breaks in the series emerge, given internal and external crises (wars, oil shocks, regime changes, institutional reforms). Therefore, the empirical analysis is conducted for the entire period, as well as two sub-periods (1862–1913 and 1947–2013). In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy has sustainability problems in the Republican age (1947-2013). Our Markov-switching dynamic regression model indicates the existence of two distinct states, both for public debt and deficit, with means and standard deviations rather different. Both states are extremely persistent.     

Francesco Forte’s Contributions to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Essentials of Fiscal Sociology</Emphasis>

Francesco Forte has made major contributions to many areas of economics with the result that his theoretical work and applications have opened new areas of inquiry. This paper connects Forte’s work with the work of Jürgen Backhaus on fiscal sociology. Positioned at the crossroads of economics and sociology, the answers to these questions helped fill the void which gave rise to the field of fiscal sociology. Fiscal sociology is primarily a study of taxation and fiscal policies which illuminates core issues in the sociology of contemporary capitalism. It includes the causes of poverty and inequality in rich countries and adds to our understanding the basis for the inequality between rich and poor countries. Our paper reviews several of Forte’s papers on Pareto’s fiscal sociology and the failure of European planning for less-developed regions. The paper highlights Forte’s contributions to economic theory focusing on Pareto’s sociological theory and the influence of the European Union on regional development.     

Carbon Trading Reporting: The Case of Spanish Companies

Policy makers, scientists, industry leaders, and academicians all have debated how to restrain global warming and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Three main methods are used: command and control laws and regulations, carbon taxes, and cap and trade schemes. Recognizing the consequences of global warming, all Scandinavian countries introduced a carbon emissions tax in the 1990s. They also ratified the Kyoto Protocol that ran from 2005 through 2012. The European Union (EU) instituted a carbon trading scheme (Emissions Trading System (ETS)) in February 2005 when Kyoto became operative. The three Scandinavian EU members had two methods in place during the 2005–08 period to encourage GHG reduction: taxing and trading. Norway, not in the EU, used just taxes. The other EU members, including Spain, applied just the carbon trading ETS scheme to encourage compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. The fundamental issue addressed is this one: Did publicly held firms headquartered in Spain adequately report participation in the EU carbon emissions trading mechanism? Data to answer this question were obtained from the 2011 and 2012 annual reports for domestic Spanish public companies that received tradable emissions permits. In addition to assessing investor-owned firms’ disclosure posture, the specific method of reporting about carbon emissions permits, whether companies used, banked, or sold the permits granted by the government, also is reviewed. This empirical research effort reports on a complete survey of all available data for the two financial reporting periods that concluded the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol.     

基于BD-GIS耦合模型的北京奥林匹克 森林公园景观优化策略研究

随着城市人口的增加和人们健康意识的增强,近年 来城市公园的使用率呈现迅速上升趋势。手机等智能电子设备 的高速发展,使人们可以在户外运动中监测自身活动轨迹、距 离和能量消耗等。以北京奥林匹克森林公园为例,通过手机 信令、微博、百度POI等大数据与GIS技术结合,构建依托大 数据的GIS耦合模型,从游人的行为需求出发对公园的慢跑游 线、景点热度、游人空间分布等进行使用后量化评价,并针对 问题提出北京奥林匹克森林公园的景观优化策略。结果显示大 数据与GIS的结合可以为公园的景观优化提供客观且理性的整 改依据,从而更科学地指导城市公园的景观提升。     

Link-save trading

Transaction costs involved while trading several assets may be described using bid-ask spread of the asset prices. We assume that the prices of several assets may be linked, so that transactions involving several assets have prices that are not necessarily equal to the sums of (bid or ask) prices of the individual assets. The family of possible price combinations forms a convex (random) set which changes in time and is called the set-valued price process. It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for no-arbitrage is the existence of a martingale selection, i.e. a martingale that takes values in the set-valued price process. Examples and applications to option pricing are discussed.     

Unit root testing via the stationary bootstrap

A nonparametric, residual-based stationary bootstrap procedure is proposed for unit root testing in a time series. The procedure generates a pseudoseries which mimics the original, but ensures the presence of a unit root. Unlike many others in the literature, the proposed test is valid for a wide class of weakly dependent processes and is not based on parametric assumptions on the data-generating process. Large sample theory is developed and asymptotic validity is shown via a bootstrap functional central limit theorem. The case of a least squares statistic is discussed in detail, including simulations to investigate the procedure's finite sample performance.     

Bootstrapping the Box–Pierce Q test: A robust test of uncorrelatedness

This paper describes a test of the null hypothesis that the first K autocorrelations of a covariance stationary time series are zero in the presence of statistical dependence. The test is based on the Box–Pierce Q statistic with bootstrap-based P-values. The bootstrap is implemented using a double blocks-of-blocks procedure with prewhitening. The finite sample performance of the bootstrap Q   test is investigated by simulation. In our experiments, the performance is satisfactory for samples of n=500$n=500$. At this sample size, the differences between the empirical and nominal rejection probabilities are essentially eliminated.     

Evaluating expectations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis>-statistics by the Steffensen inequality

By combining the Moriguti and Steffensen inequalities, we obtain sharp upper bounds for the expectations of arbitrary linear combinations of order statistics from iid samples. The bounds are expressed in terms of expectations of the left truncated parent distribution and constants that depend only on the coefficients of the linear combination. We also present analogous results for dependent id samples. The bounds are especially useful for L-estimates of the scale parameter of the distribution.     

Changing rewards in contests: Has the three-point rule brought more offense to soccer?

In the mid-nineties FIFA decided to increase from two to three the number of points assigned to the winning team of a soccer match played under traditional round-robin national leagues. Since a game of soccer can be regarded as a contest, FIFA's measure provides an interesting case-study for analysing how a change in the system of rewards (from a zero to a non-zero sum rule) may affect the contestants' equilibrium behaviour. In this paper we try to assess, both theoretically and empirically, whether FIFA's new point rule has changed soccer towards a more offensive game, in which teams adopt more risky strategies. In particular, we evaluate the “na?ve hypothesis” according to which the measure would induce every team to play always more offensively, and we explore the extent to which the change in teams' behaviour may be affected by quality differentials between teams. Our most important hypothesis is that when the asymmetry between opposing teams is large enough, an increase in the reward for victory induces the weaker team to play more defensively, rather than the opposite. By looking at a subset of matches held in the Portuguese first division league, which approximate the conditions of our model, we find support for this hypothesis. First version received: July 1999/Final version received: May 2001