On the concept of optimum population

The economic welfare of a community is affected by policies that determine both the rate of capital accumulation and the rate of growth of population. The optimum size of population at any point is time will depend on the size of the existing capital stock and the optimum rate of savings will depend on the existing number of people. Consequently, in this sense, a population policy cannot be developed without a concurrent savings policy. The criterion of optimality that will be used is the ma ximization of the total discounted welfare of all generations from now to infinity. The problem will be to select that rate of savings and that size of population at every moment which will achieve this maximum welfare if, in fact, a maximum exists. An inquiry is made into the existence of an optimum policy under various circumstances. An attempt is made to evaluate the consequences of various ethical beliefs.     

The value of birth control

The attempt was made to obtain an improved estimate of the economic value of birth control programs in developing countries. A medium sized econometric simulation model -- based on data covering a cross-section of 67 countries -- was constructed to investigate the implications to a developing economy of birth prevention. Fertility measures were included in the model as important endogenous variables in the economic process, and parameter values were supplied by formal estimation rather than expert judgment. A matrix of age-specific birth and survival rates was used. The model has sufficient detail to generate a complete age distribution for the population, yielding improved estimates of the value of birth control and other growth policies. Initial focus is on the construction of the model. This is followed by simulation of the system with simulated paths compared to observed paths for a few countries. Projections of real per capita output and other variables with and without the presence of a birth control program are presented. The size of the differential economic effect associated with lower fertility is examined for 17 sets of initial conditions corresponding to a selection of 17 developing countries. Comparisons of birth control with other forms of investment are made.     

Fit performance of several programs used for non-linear least squares problems

Seven computerprograms for non-linear regression or curve fitting problems are compared. The comparison of the programs, running in different computing centra, is restricted to the fit performance. Six model functions are fitted according to the least squares criterion to data series, arising from practical work. The special least squares minimization programs turned out to be better suited for these problems than general optimizing programs.     

Alcune proprieta′ di monotonia generalizzata

Questo lavoro pone la monotonia generalizzata come un opportuno strumento per uno sviluppo controllato di funzioni scalari e vettoriali. E' cosi possibile caratterizzare la relazione tra su spazi vettoriali.

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Summary Some generalized monotonicity properties are analyzed both for scalar and vector functions. In particular the relation between and the class of functions, which are able to preserve it, are studied.

     

Equipment replacement policy: a survey

Over the past ten years there has been a considerable increase in application of theoretically correct measurement methods in determining the economic life of equipment. Approximately 89% of the firms surveyed have equipment replacement policies. The discounted rate of return method is the most widely used in determining the service life of equipment; the MAPI formula is not widely used. Difficulties in applying a replacement policy can be classified into three groups: operational, organizational, and economic. The problems mentioned most often are operational. In organizational difficulties there is usually a lack of coordination between staff and line managers. Economic problems are generally the limited funds available for equipment replacement. Formal educational programs are lacking for the development of equipment replacement managers. For the firms having replacement policies, individuals with engineering degrees are preferred over those in other disciplines for the management of the equipment replacement policy.     

Estimation of a non-invertible moving average process: The case of overdifferencing

The effect of differencing all of the variables in a properly specified regression equation is examined. Excessive use of the difference transformation induces a non-invertible moving average (MA) process in the disturbances of the transformed regression. Monte Carlo techniques are used to examine the effects of overdifferencing on the efficiency of regression parameter estimates, inferences based on these estimates, and tests for overdifferenccing based on the estimator of the MA parameter for the disturbances of the differences regression. Overall, the problem of overdifferencing is not serious if careful attention is paid to the properties of the disturbances of regression equations.     

Trade unions and HRM

Here the author reviews the stated positions and responses of unions towards employer initiated human resource management developments. The information reviewed is drawn from Canada, Britain and the USA, with some differences being apparent between countries.     

Reduced Form Auctions Revisited

This note uses the Theorem of the Alternative to prove new results on the implementability of general, asymmetric auctions, and to provide simpler proofs of known results for symmetric auctions. The tradeoff is that type spaces are taken to be finite.