Network dependency and airline competition – Consequences for remote areas in Norway

Due to the long stretched shape of the country and sparse population many regions in Norway are dependent on air travel that involves chained trips with two or more legs. Northern Norway and the west coast are particularly dependent on such networks. In these areas a number of short take-off and landing airports and subsidised regional airlines engaged in a public service obligations route tendering systems. However, regions dependent on competitive network travel have not all benefited from the last ten years of competition which has lead to lower fares on the main routes and ‘through-fares’ for network travellers have become relatively expensive. This is because there is only one network airline offering through fares. Network travel where one leg is commercially provided and not covered by public service obligation rules, leaving regulation authorities to intervention when fares are excessively high on other legs.     

Airport competition - Regional airports losing ground to main airports

Regional airports in Norway are losing market shares to nearby main airports on flights to the national capital, Oslo, and on international travel via Oslo. Travellers are willing to spend several hours extra driving to a larger airport in order to take advantage of lower fares and more convenient airline services. Traffic leakage from regional airports is high when the service from the regional airport is indirect and fare differences are large. Public service obligation tenders (PSO) set maximum fares on the regional legs, but do not cover through travel from regional airports which involve commercial legs. Traffic leakage is particularly evident in the leisure segment. Leakage levels tend to increase as competition is intensified at main airports, but the evidence is rather mixed. Logistic curves of airport market shares have proven to be useful when comparing spatial variations in leakage levels.     

Modelling and predicting customer churn from an insurance company

Within a company's customer relationship management strategy, finding the customers most likely to leave is a central aspect. We present a dynamic modelling approach for predicting individual customers’ risk of leaving an insurance company. A logistic longitudinal regression model that incorporates time-dynamic explanatory variables and interactions is fitted to the data. As an intermediate step in the modelling procedure, we apply generalised additive models to identify non-linear relationships between the logit and the explanatory variables. Both out-of-sample and out-of-time prediction indicate that the model performs well in terms of identifying customers likely to leave the company each month. Our approach is general and may be applied to other industries as well.     

Statistical Inference under Symmetry

We explore the consequences of adjoining a symmetry group to a statistical model. Group actions are first induced on the sample space, and then on the parameter space. It is argued that the right invariant measure induced by the group on the parameter space is a natural non-informative prior for the parameters of the model. The permissible sub-parameters are introduced, i.e., the subparameters upon which group actions can be defined. Equivariant estimators are similarly defined. Orbits of the group are defined on the sample space and on the parameter space; in particular the group action is called transitive when there is only one orbit. Credibility sets and confidence sets are shown (under right invariant prior and assuming transitivity on the parameter space) to be equal when defined by permissible sub-parameters and constructed from equivariant estimators. The effect of different choices of transformation group is illustrated by examples, and properties of the orbits on the sample space and on the parameter space are discussed. It is argued that model reduction should be constrained to one or several orbits of the group. Using this and other natural criteria and concepts, among them concepts related to design of experiments under symmetry, leads to links towards chemometrical prediction methods and towards the foundation of quantum theory.     

The Effect of Founding Family Influence on Firm Value and Corporate Governance

We examined a sample of 120 Norwegian, founding family controlled and non‐founding family controlled firms, to address two important research questions: (1) is founding family control associated with higher firm value; and (2) are there unique corporate governance conditions under which a founding family controlled firm can be more valuable? We find a positive association between founding family control and firm value for four alternative definitions of founding family control. We find that the association between founding family CEOs and firm value is stronger among younger firms, firms with smaller boards, and firms with a single class of shares. However, the impact of founding family directors on firm value is not affected by corporate governance conditions such as firm age, board independence, and number of share classes. We also find that the relation between founding family ownership and firm value is greater among older firms, firms with larger boards, and particularly when these firms have multiple classes of shares. Our results imply that founding family controlled firms are more valuable and governed differently than firms without such influence. Furthermore, our results also suggest that founding family CEOs can enhance firm performance when family influence does not create shareholder entrenchment or when their cash flow rights are more aligned with their control rights.     

Unfolding event histories: Scaling of non-repeating events

The present paper discusses the use of Coombs' (1950, 1964) unfolding procedure applied to event history data. This procedure is appropriate when several stimuli are rated according to the individuals' preference, and yields scale values for stimuli and individuals, as well as a ‘best’ order of stimuli. We propose to consider the order of occurrence in time of non-repeatable events (such as first marriage, leaving home, and first job) as an indication of the subjects' preference for these stimuli. In that case unfolding may be applied to the analysis of event history-data. The statistical principles of unfolding analysis in general are briefly discussed. Subsequently an illustration is given, using data concerning the life course of 216 Dutch women of birth cohort 1961, concerning five events: first steady relationship, leaving home, first child, first job, and first occurrence of living together. It is shown that these events can be ordered at an underlying one-dimensional continuum on which individuals can be scaled. Furthermore, using regression analysis it is shown that the location of the subjects at this continuum correlates significantly with various explanatory variables, showing how unfolding may be used in practical applications.     

The effectiveness of contractual and trust‐based governance in strategic alliances under behavioral and environmental uncertainty

Research summary: We examine the interplay of behavioral and environmental uncertainty in shaping the effectiveness of two key governance mechanisms used by strategic alliances: contractual and trust‐based governance. We develop and test hypotheses, using a meta‐analytic dataset encompassing over 15,000 strategic alliances across 82 independent samples. We find that contractual governance works best under low to moderate levels of behavioral uncertainty and moderate to high levels of environmental uncertainty, while it is detrimental to alliance performance when both types of uncertainty are low or high. Trust‐based governance is most effective at high levels of behavioral uncertainty and low levels of environmental uncertainty. It suffers a large loss of usefulness at high behavioral uncertainty as environmental uncertainty increases. Managerial summary: Strategic alliances allow firms to gain greater efficiency and create value. Yet, many such alliances fail because they are not able to deal with the twin challenges posed by behavioral and environmental uncertainty. Findings from our meta‐analysis imply that under conditions of high behavioral uncertainty and low‐to‐moderate levels of environmental uncertainty, the use of trust‐based governance alongside contractual governance might enhance the latter's effectiveness. The combined effectiveness of contractual and trust‐based governance under high levels of both behavioral and environmental uncertainty is not obvious. When both behavioral and environmental uncertainty are high, contractual governance hurts alliance performance while trust‐based governance does not function at its best either. Under these conditions, it might be better for firms to turn to hierarchy or vertical integration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adolescents’ attitudes towards organic food: a survey of 15‐ to 16‐year old school children

Adolescents are the consumers of tomorrow; therefore policies aimed at increasing organic food consumption should address the needs of this group. To discover their attitudes towards organic food and their knowledge of the subject, a survey among almost 700 school children aged 15–16 years was conducted. Four main groups of questions were used: adolescents’ knowledge of organic food, attitudes, whether they bought organic food and the perceived influences they exerted on the buying patterns of their parents. From the survey it can be concluded that adolescents’ attitudes towards organic food are positive, but their knowledge of and their willingness to buy it are low. Campaigns aimed at encouraging the purchasing of organic food targeted at adolescents should particularly emphasize those characteristics of organic foods that they can relate to their interests and ethical preferences, for example, animal welfare and environmental considerations.