The non mortality of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in an unselected, community diagnosed and treated population

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HC) is portrayed in past literature as having an ominous prognosis. However, most studies emanated from medical centers and suffered from potential referral bias. A population based, community diagnosed and treated survival study is analyzed by the life table method. Despite potential causes for both underestimation of the observed mortality as well as for overestimation of expected mortality, the study appears to reveal a more favorable prognosis for HC in this population.     

Interest-only and principal-only mortgage strips as interest-rate contingent claims

Interest-only (IO) and principal-only (PO) mortgage strips are valued in a stochastic interest-rate environment. The prepayment rate of the underlying mortgages is affected by two considerations not present in the pure financially rational model: (1) The property owner's holding period is assumed to follow a Gamma distribution, resulting in the possibility of prepayment due to the sale of the property (i.e., prepayment that is too early based on market interest rates); and (2) borrowers are assumed to face heterogeneous transaction costs related to refinancing the existing mortgage, and delay refinancing when market conditions make it optimal to do so (refinancing too late). Properties of IO/PO strips are identified by the finite difference method.     

Strategy and the new economics of information

We are in the midst of a fundamental shift in the economics of information--a shift that will precipitate changes in the structure of entire industries and in the ways companies compete. This shift is made possible by the widespread adoption of Internet technologies, but it is less about technology than about the fact that a new behavior is reaching critical mass. Millions of people are communicating at home and at work in an explosion of connectivity that threatens to undermine the established value chains for businesses in many sectors of the economy. What will happen, for instance, to dominant retailers such as Toys "R" Us and Home Depot when a search through the Internet gives consumers more choice than any store? What will be the point of cultivating a long-standing supplier relationship with General Electric when it posts its purchasing requirements on an Internet bulletin board and entertains bids from anybody inclined to respond? The authors present a conceptual framework for approaching such questions--for understanding the relationship of information to the physical components of the value chain and how the Internet's ability to separate the two will lead to the reconfiguration of the value proposition in many industries. In any business where the physical value chain has been compromised for the sake of delivering information, there will be an opportunity to create a separate information business and a need to streamline the physical one. Executives must mentally deconstruct their businesses to see the real value of what they have. If they don't, the authors warn, someone else will.     

Spark innovation through empathic design

Companies are used to bringing in customers to participate in focus groups, usability laboratories, and market research surveys in order to help in the development of new products and services. And for improving products that customers know well, those tools are highly sophisticated. For example, knowledgeable customers are adept at identifying the specific scent of leather they expect in a luxury vehicle or at helping to tune the sound of a motorcycle engine to just the timbre that evokes feelings of power. But to go beyond improvements to the familiar, companies need to identify and meet needs that customers may not yet recognize. To accomplish that task, a set of techniques called empathic design can help. Rather than bring the customers to the company, empathic design calls for company representatives to watch customers using products and services in the context of their own environments. By doing so, managers can often identify unexpected uses for their products, just as the product manager of a cooking oil did when he observed a neighbor spraying the oil on the blades of a lawn mower to reduce grass buildup. They can also uncover problems that customers don't mention in surveys, as the president of Nissan Design did when he watched a couple struggling to remove the backseat of a competitor's minivan in order to transport a couch. The five-step process Dorothy Leonard and Jeffrey Rayport describe in detail is a relatively low-cost, low-risk way to identify customer needs, and it has the potential to redirect a company's existing technological capabilities toward entirely new businesses.     

When an executive defects

The news that one of the company's senior managers is leaving comes as a complete surprise to Paul Simmonds, CEO of Kinsington Textiles, Inc. Ned Carpenter, KTI's vice president of operations for three years, writes in his resignation letter than he is leaving for a better opportunity. Simmonds soon learns that Carpenter's new job is at Daltex, one of KTI's main rivals in the intensely competitive carpet industry. Hiring Carpenter had helped Simmonds establish his reputation as a topnotch manager. Carpenter came to KTI with lots of ideas and put his enthusiasm to good use. Three years into a five-year change program, Carpenter had turned KTI's operations from one of the worst in the industry to one of the best. He also had helped develop and plan the upcoming launch of a new fiber coating--KTI's first breakthrough in years. In this fictitious case study, Simmonds, along with the company's counsel and vice president of human resources, must figure out how much and what sort of damage control they need. What are they going to tell the company's employees and the media? Should they immediately replace Carpenter with John Brady, the second-in-command of operations? What if Carpenter is taking KTI employees--and strategic information--with him to Daltex? Should Simmonds ask all his managers to sign noncompete agreements-something Carpenter was never asked to do? Should KTI sue Carpenter? Five experts offer advice about communicating with KTI's employees, the media, and Carpenter himself, and about protecting the company's confidential information.     

What's it worth? A general manager's guide to valuation

Behind every major resource-allocation decision a company makes lies some calculation of what that move is worth. So it is not surprising that valuation is the financial analytical skill general managers want to learn more than any other. Managers whose formal training is more than a few years old, however, are likely to have learned approaches that are becoming obsolete. What do generalists need in an updated valuation tool kit? In the 1970s, discounted-cash-flow analysis (DCF) emerged as best practice for valuing corporate assets. And one version of DCF-using the weighted-average cost of capital (WACC)-became the standard. Over the years, WACC has been used by most companies as a one-size-fits-all valuation tool. Today the WACC standard is insufficient. Improvements in computers and new theoretical insights have given rise to tools that outperform WACC in the three basic types of valuation problems managers face. Timothy Luehrman presents an overview of the three tools, explaining how they work and when to use them. For valuing operations, the DCF methodology of adjusted present value allows managers to break a problem into pieces that make managerial sense. For valuing opportunities, option pricing captures the contingent nature of investments in areas such as R&D and marketing. And for valuing ownership claims, the tool of equity cash flows helps managers value their company's stake in a joint venture, a strategic alliance, or an investment that uses project financing.     

Poverty,population and environmental degradation in China

This article examines the relationship between poverty, population, and environmental degradation in China. Environmental conditions include water pollution, deforestation, destruction of grasslands, soil erosion, and salinization. The authors review China's success in controlling environmental degradation through leadership, environmental policies, and institutional capacity. Findings suggest that environmental progress is best achieved indirectly by poverty alleviation, market integration, and population control. Government policies were not very effective. Degradation occurs due to limited financial resources, poorly trained personnel, and political factors. Control of water pollution was instituted since the 1980s. The levels of pollutants have been reduced, but the type of pollutant determines the seriousness of impact. Water pollution is due to industrial wastes, agricultural run-off, and soil erosion. Since the 1970s, reforestation targets have not been met. Technical extension and monitoring of planting is not available in most areas, and private, profit seeking interests control acreage. Grassland destruction is due to deforestation, agricultural expansion, and overgrazing. Independent regional authorities have successfully managed pasture programs. Erosion is the most serious in Loess Plateau, the Red Soils area, the Northeast China Plain, and the Northwest Grasslands, which comprise 70% of total land area. In 1990, erosion control was practiced in 39% of eroded land area. Salinization has remained fairly constant. Environmental controls (direct regulation, planned recovery, and state-mandated technological improvements) are uneven. The main tool for environmental management is the State Environmental Protection Commission and its executive unit, SEPA. Problems stem from vague laws, lack of means of enforcement, lack of coordination of laws, and lack of standards, schedules, and other provisions in ordinances.