The Federal Reserve's Tools for Policy Normalization in a Preferred Habitat Model of Financial Markets

We develop a model to analyze monetary policy implementation with multiple Federal Reserve liabilities and superabundant reserves. The analysis demonstrates the Federal Reserve's tools including interest on excess reserves (IOER), overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP), and term deposits should allow the Federal Reserve to raise the short‐term interest rates to any desired level. We find the contribution of each the increase in the IOER and ON RRP offering rates in firming money market rates suggested by the data during the December 2015 policy tightening event is remarkably similar to the effect of each tool implied by the calibrated model.     

The sensitivity of financial distress prediction models to departures from normality*

Abstract. This research empirically investigated the effect of nonnormality on financial stress prediction. The analysis included the application of probit, logit and multiple discriminant analysis to prediction models found in previous literature, and also involved separate samples for both bankrupt and problem-status companies. Finally, the statistical techniques were evaluated under extreme conditions of nonnormality. Two basic procedures were used to modify the ratio distributions to achieve normality. These included a square-root transformation procedure and an outlier deletion procedure. Results were compared using both a univariate and a multivariate technique to identify and remove outliers. The results indicate the general sensitivity of the multiple discriminant analysis technique to departures from normality and the sensitivity of the logit and probit techniques to extreme nonnormality. The data indicate that researchers interested in assessing classification accuracy might benefit by testing for distributional sensitivity using procedures outlined in this research. Resumé. Les auteurs ont procédé à une analyse empirique de l'incidence des écarts par rapport à la normalité sur la prévision des contraintes financières. L'analyse comporte l'application du probit, du logit et de l'analyse à discriminants multiples aux modèles prévisionnnels que l'on trouve dans des publications, et l'on a eu recours à des échantillons distincts tant pour les sociétés en situation de faillite que pour les sociétés en difficulté. Enfin, les techniques statistiques ont été évaluees dans des conditions extrêmes d'écart par rapport à la normalité. Deux méthodes fondamentales ont été utilisées pour modifier les distributions de ratios de façon à parvenir à la normalité. Ces méthodes comprennent un procédé de transformation de la racine carrée et un procédé d'élimination des éléments isolés. Les résultats obtenus ont été comparés à l'aide d'une technique univariée ainsi que d'une technique multivariée pour repérer et supprimer les éléments isolés. Les résultats indiquent la sensibilité générale de la technique d'analyse à discriminants multiples aux déviations par rapport à la normalité et la sensibilité des techniques logit et probit aux écarts extrêmes par rapport à la normalité. Ces données révèlent que les chercheurs qui s'intéressent à l'évaluation de l'axactitude de la classification pourraient tirer profit d'une vérification de la sensibilité de la distribution au moyen des méthodes décrites par les auteurs.     

A note on the neutrality of internal control systems in audit practice*

Abstract. The purpose of this note is to provide empirical evidence concerning the assumption of internal controls neutrality, with respect to compliance testing, using either monetary unit sampling or physical unit selection. The results do not support the neutrality assumption. Thus, an amendment of the present professional guidelines for auditors regarding compliance testing may be warranted. Résumé. L'objectif de cette note est de fournir une évidence empirique relative à l'hypothèse de neutralité des contrôles internes en rapport avec les tests de conformité, en utilisant soit le sondage des unités monétaires ou le sondage des unités physiques. Les résultats n'appuient pas l'hypothèse de neutralité. Alors, un amendement aux guides professionnels actuels pour les vérificateurs est justifié dans le cas des tests de conformité.     

The Life Cycle Model as a Framework for Understanding Barriers to SME Growth in Hong Kong

There is limited research on turnaround in the Asian context, particularly from a contextual perspective. This article reports the findings of an exploratory study of turnaround strategies and management at the level of the firm in Malaysia using a case study approach. The contextual impact along dimensions such as different ethnic/cultural background, ownership types and role of government has been examined in seven case studies of Malaysian firms. The findings reveal some differences among the firms, as well as turnaround characteristics similar to those reported in recent literature on East Asian versus western turnaround. These findings are discussed and propositions for future research made.     

The Impact of R&D Intensity on Demand for Specialist Auditor Services*

The audit fee research literature argues that auditors' costs of developing brand name reputations, including top‐tier designation and recognition for industry specialization, are compensated through audit fee premiums. Audited firms reduce agency costs by engaging high‐quality auditors who monitor the levels and reporting of discretionary expenditures and accruals. In this study we examine whether specialist auditor choice is associated with a particular discretionary expenditure ‐ research and development (R&D). For a large sample of U.S. companies from a range of industries, we find strong evidence that R&D intensity is positively associated with firms' choices of auditors who specialize in auditing R&D contracts. Additionally, we find that R&D intensive firms tend to appoint top‐tier auditors. We use simultaneous equations to control for interrelationships between dependent variables in addition to single‐equation ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models. Our results are particularly strong in tests using samples of small firms whose auditor choice is not constrained by the need to appoint a top‐tier auditor to ensure the auditor's financial independence from the client.     

RECENT EVIDENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTION EFFECTS

This study associates levels of exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter in the South Coast Air Basin of California with resident income, race, age and education. A Regional Human Exposure Model provides the basis for estimating exposure not only on location or residence, but also on mobility within the Basin and time spent in various activities indoors and outdoors. The results are consonant with earlier research in most respects, except that population density is negatively related to exposure. Ethnic minorities and children receive the greatest exposure levels. The highest income group exhibits a strongly negative association with exposure.     

PARTICIPATION IN PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON PARKS AND RECREATION

Physical inactivity is considered a major public health problem. We analyze participation in physical activity using data from a nationally representative sample of individuals in 1998 and 2000 augmented with additional state-level data on government spending on parks and recreation. We find considerable variation in participation and time spent in physical activity across different groups of physical activity. Spending on parks and recreation increases participation in group sports but reduces participation, and time spent, in walking for exercise, suggesting that parks and recreation spending may not be an effective policy tool for increasing physical activity. ( JEL I200, I120, I180, L830)