WEATHER AND PRAIRIE WHEAT PRODUCTION*

Estimates of Canadian prairie wheat production during the 1952 and 1967 period using regression equations based on precipitation, and on both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PE), were analysed. Inclusion of PE is the equations considerably improved the results. The estimation procedures outlined can be used to make pre-harvest assessments of the weather contribution to wheat production, and to evaluate the effects in past years of non-weather factors such as rust epidemics. The weather variations themselves can also be evaluated. For example, it is estimated that two thirds of the billion dollar difference between the 1961 and 1966 wheat crops was due to weather differences.
LES CONDITIONS CLIMATIQUES ET LE RENDEMENT DU BLÉ — Obtenues à l'aide d'équations de régression basées soit sur les précipitations et l'évapotranspiration potentielle (EPT), soit sur les précipitations seulement, des estimations de rendement du blé sur les prairies Canadiennes pour la période de 1952 à 1967 ont été analysées. L'introduction du facteur ETP dans les équations améliora les résultats considérablement. Ces méthodes d'évaluation peuvent être utilisées pour determiner à l'avance la contribution des conditions climatiques à la récolte de l'année courante. Elles peuvent servir aussi à évaluer les effets de facteurs autres que le climat, comme les épidémies de rouille, sur les rendements des années passées. On peut également évaluer les variations climatiques elles-mêmes. Par exemple, on a estimé que les deux tiers du milliard de dollars entre les valeurs des récoltes de 1961 et 1966 étaient attribuables aux différences climatiques.     

Optimal pest control in greenhouse production of ornamental crops

In this study, we develop a conceptual bioeconomic model of floriculture production with aesthetic benefits, wherein optimal decision rules depend on an intertemporal economic objective to maximize profits subject to economic and biological processes. Necessary conditions of the model identify optimal trajectories (e.g., simultaneous, single, or cycling controls) that define decision rules and economic thresholds for profit maximizing growers producing crops with aesthetic attributes. The necessary conditions also highlight intertemporal trade‐offs between aesthetic benefits and expected future net benefits of arthropod stocks, which have important policy implications. The model is applied to the greenhouse production system of ivy geranium.     

Smallholder production structure and rural roads in Africa: the case of Nakuru District, Kenya

Data from a 1998 survey of farming households in Kenya is used to estimate the effects of poor rural road infrastructure (and high market access costs) on the structure of smallholder farm production. Simultaneous estimation of cost and input share equations reveals rational responses by farmers to high access costs. In the expected continued absence of major investments in rural infrastructure in countries such as Kenya, the policy challenge is to identify and catalyse institutional innovations that reduce a range of transaction costs, increase financial liquidity, increase social capital, and reduce risk.     

Escaping Nash Inflation

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of self-referential systems under discounted least squares learning. Another ODE governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self-confirming equilibrium. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsey (commitment) inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government.
"If an unlikely event occurs, it is very likely to occur in the most likely way."
Michael Harrison     

The CEO and the external environment

This study confirms other studies and public choice microeconomic theory: CEOs spend more time on issues external to their firms in today's volatile business environment.