The Postwar Stability of the Fisher Effect

Most research concerning the Fisher relationship has concentrated on the magnitude and significance of the response of nominal interest rates to anticipated inflation. Recently, attention has shifted to the stability of that response. According to previous estimates, the impact of anticipated inflation on interest rates varies substantially over time. By extending a standard model to include tax and aggregate supply shock effects, we are able to reduce such instability considerably. Our results also reveal that increased foreign demand for bonds lowers the interest rate.     

Green Technology and Optimal Emissions Taxation

Unless an active environmental policy exists, firms have no incentive to engage in abatement or environmental R&D so policy design is of paramount importance. This design heavily depends on the way R&D spillovers operate. There are two distinct types of R&D spillover: output spillover and input spillover. An input spillover operates on the expenditure toward pollution reduction, whereas an output spillover manifests as the achieved abatement. Under optimal emissions taxation, significant differences arise due to this distinction, in particular, when the spillover operates on R&D inputs. In an oligopolistic setting, the result is higher R&D expenditure, but also higher aggregate emissions and, consequently, higher emissions taxes. By contrast, when spillovers occur in R&D output, there is a U‐shaped relationship between the optimal tax and the spillover, showing a trade‐off between the optimal tax rate and spillovers when these are low. In terms of the relative effectiveness of different R&D organization setups, combining emissions taxes with R&D cooperation, this paper shows that under low levels of R&D spillover R&D cooperation gives higher emissions reductions, whereas when spillovers are high this is not the case.     

Affordability and Some Welfare Aspects of Indexation*

A general equilibrium model with production and trade is used to analyze whether indexation schemes are affordable.     

Anti-Stagflationary Tax Cuts and the Problem of Investment*

If prices are affected by both cost-push and demand-pull factors then a change in the policy mix towards fiscal ease can improve output, employment and the balance of trade without the price level rising. However the policy change may reduce investment and so affect the intertemporal allocation of resources. This paper derives conditions for tax cuts to ameliorate inflation and unemployment without a sacrifice of future output. Numerical examples suggest that one can have no presumption that the conditions are or are not likely to hold in general. The discussion is related to Corden's recent analysis of a 'free lunch'.     

Models of Trade Union Behaviour: A Synthesis

In this paper, the following four models of wage determination by trade unions, namely simple monopoly, wage-bargaining (or 'right to manage'), efficient bargains and insider-dominated, are placed within a single framework. It is shown that the pattern of wage behaviour is the same in each of the four models. It is also shown that when taxation is introduced the impact on wages of changes in marginal and average rates of tax is similar across the models.     

Implications for Australia of Cross-Country Comparisons in Economic Performance*

What can be learnt about the economic experience of Australia in the 1970s by comparing the performances of other countries with that of Australia? In particular, what do those comparisons suggest about the nature of and reasons for, the Australian outcomes for prices, production and employment? These are the main questions addressed in this paper. In Section II, comparisons are made for several indicators between the experiences of Australia and nine other countries. In Section III the outcomes are analyzed and in Section IV some implications for Australia are drawn.     

Forecasting Australian Marriage Rates*

The paper discusses the problem of modelling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. Two empirical model selection procedures are applied to suggest final form forecasting equations for Australian marriage rates. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their post-sample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA-type models of marriage rates which are regarded as approximations to marriage rate final equation models. In this instance the ARM A models are preferred for forecasting purposes. The properties of the ARM A model forecasts are then examined and the modelling strategy is contrasted with the regression method used by Withers.