Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist

Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long-run relationships with the time series methods. This article reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific, vector autoregressions and the vector error correction models. As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000 Smith, RP. 2000. “Unit Roots and all that: the impact of time-series methods on macroeconomics”. In Macroeconomics and the Real World, Edited by: Backhouse, RE. and Salanti, A. 199–215. Oxford: Oxford University Press.  [Google Scholar]), often there maybe only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.     

A hierarchical utility model for the dynamic acquisition of heterogeneous items

This paper develops a model for situations in marketing and elsewhere in which an individual decision maker acquires multiattributed items that belong to several classes over time. The model captures the dynamic acquisition of heterogeneous items. Measurement and parameter estimation methods are described and illustrated with a small set of experiment data involving the acquisition of durable goods by households. Future research steps are also outlined.     

Indonesian Manufacturing Sector Output and Productivity: An Australian Comparative Perspective, 1975–90

This paper provides industry-of-origin comparative estimates of real output and labour productivity in the Indonesian and Australian manufacturing sectors. It makes binary comparisons for the benchmark year 1987, and extrapolates the 1987 benchmark backward and forward using national time series, to derive comparisons for the years 1975–90. Expressed in ‘purchasing power parities’ (PPPs), the gross value of output and value added in Indonesian manufacturing in 1987 was 40% and 34% of the respective Australian levels. In 1987 the Indonesian manufacturing price level was 74% of the Australian level, and Indonesian manufacturing labour productivity was 16% of that in Australia. 1975 to 1990 was a period of catch-up. The Indonesian manufacturing price level declined from 105% to 60% of the Australian level, while labour productivity increased from 12% to 17% of the Australian level. The catch-up was greater from the early 1980s onwards.     

An empirical analysis of national and local advertising effect on price elasticity

This paper investigates the interaction effect of advertising and price on the market share of a consumer nondurable product. We postulate a model in which local advertising is thought to primarily affect the consumers' purchase by making the demand more price sensitive, and national advertising to affect the consumers' preference, thus making the demand less price sensitive. Moreover, we hypothesize that local advertising interaction will have more immediate effect, while national advertising interaction will have longer term interaction effects. We apply these ideas empirically, and find support for our hypotheses. Thus, the interaction effect of advertising and price can be characterized by both increased and decreased price sensitivity, depending on the type of advertising. Moreover, these effects may be present simultaneously for the same product.     

Combining revealed and stated preferences data

Our objective is to develop a unifying framework for the incorporation of different types of survey data in individual choice models. We describe statistical methodologies that combine multiple sources of data in the estimation of individual choice models and summarize the current state of the art of data combination methods that have been used with market research data. The most successful applications so far have combined revealed and stated preference data. We discuss different types of market and survey data and provide examples of research contexts in which one might wish to combine them. Although these methods show a great deal of promise and have already been used successfully in a number of applications, several important research issues remain. A discussion of these issues and directions for further research conclude the paper.     

土地登记代理执业风险及防范

所谓土地登记代理执业风险是指土地登记代理人因在执业过程中未能完成代理事项或未能正确履行代理职责所要承担的法律责任。它主要表现为因代理违约而产生的违约风险、因代理失败或代理不当而产生的风险等。虽然典型的土地登记代理纠纷案例并不多见,但其潜在的执业风险业内人士应予以足够的重视。土地登记代理风险的成因产生土地登记代理风险的原因是多方面的,从根本上说,主要来源于委托人、土地登记代理人及其代理机构自身和土地登记代理人的执业环境三个方面。因委托人产生的风险因素1.委托人的委托意向。委托人委托代理人进行土地登记的…     

Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on agricultural supply response to prices in developing countries. Empirical estimates of elasticities depend both on the methodology adopted and on country-specific factors relating to technology, economic structure and macro constraints. The paper seeks to establish some general conclusions on supply responsiveness within these limitations. Supply response to output prices at the aggregate and at the crop levels is considered first. Crop-specific acreage elasticities range between zero and 0.8 in the short run while long-run elasticities tend to be higher — between 0.3 and 1.2. Yield elasticities are smaller and less stable than acreage elasticities. Clearly, inter-crop pricing can be relied upon to effect shifts in the commodity composition of agricultural output. Evidence also suggests that supply elasticities vary systematically with such factors as price and yield risks, multiple-cropping, the importance of the crop, farm incomes, farm size, tenancy and literacy. The most controversial and important aspect of supply response is the effect on aggregate agricultural output of agriculture's terms of trade. Conventional time-series estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3. A major cross-country study reports an aggregate elasticity as high as 1.66. It is argued that cross-country estimates are apt to exaggerate aggregate responsiveness while time-series studies underestimate it somewhat. For LDCs, a tentative range of 0.4 to 0.5 seems plausible. Hence, the distributive effects of the terms of trade are likely to be more significant than the allocative effects. Asian evidence shows that only a third of the inter-country differences in fertilizer use can be attributed to fertilizer price policies. Provided new technologies and infrastructure are in place, fertilizer subsidies can help in technology diffusion and in overcoming credit constraints. The choice between price supports and input subsidies will depend on a variety of country- or situation-specific factors. Nevertheless, a significant general factor favoring price supports is that they can more easily be coupled with price stabilization goals than input subsidies. Though sparse, the available evidence on the response of marketed surplus suggests that price policy is not a reliable instrument for regulating inter-sectoral trade.     

在近岸采油装置上实施集成风险检查系统

介绍中东国家把集成风险检查和检查系统用于近岸油田装置。根据详细的风险检查分析和过去的检查记录,对所选择的设备采用无损检测技术实施检查。资产数据、检查记录和有关文件都集中保存在计算机系统中。这样有能力保管和查看不同种类的文件和图样。这个系统能生成和监管维修和检查工作单,并能与企业其他系统进行交流。有一个知识数据库用于资产整合活动,与MS Excel的输入/输出功能进行数据交换也更加方便。     

Caste,Kinship, and Life Course: Rethinking Women's Work and Agency in Rural South India

This paper reexamines the linkages between women's work, agency, and well-being based on a household survey and in-depth interviews conducted in rural Tamil Nadu in 2009 and questions the prioritization of workforce participation as a path to gender equality. It emphasizes the need to unpack the nature of work performed by and available to women and its social valuation, as well as women's agency, particularly its implications for decision making around financial and nonfinancial household resources in contexts of socioeconomic change. The effects of work participation on agency are mediated by factors like age and stage in the life cycle, reproductive success, and social location – especially of caste – from which women enter the workforce.